THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 12 AUGUST 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466737
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: August 12, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
August 12, 1976
9
Top SecrePc)xl
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E 0 I 1652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
August 12, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Efforts to implement the Syrian-Palestinian reconcilia-
tion accord broke down yesterday. Libya's President Qadhafi
evidently wants to bring his troops home from Lebanon.
(Page 1)
Syria: Syrian security services have been unable to prevent a
growing number of bombings and political assassinations.
(Page 4)
Egypt - Saudi Arabia: An Egyptian statement seems designed to
scuttle a new Saudi effort to cool the Egyptian-Syrian dis-
pute. (Page 8)
Greece-Turkey: Diplomatic activity is accelerating while tensions
in the Aegean remain high. (Page 6)
Japan: Deputy Prime Minister Fukuda Mopes to persuade Prime Min
ister Miki that he has no choice but to resign. (Page 6)
Kenya-Uganda: Kenya is being cautious about implementing the
agreement concluded last weekend with Uganda. (Page 7)
Southern Africa: The Benguela railroad will reopen to interna-
tional traffic soon. (Page 8)
USSR: Soviet grain prospects remain good. (Page 8)
Notes: Somalia; Portugal (Page 10)
At Annex
Soviet
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LEBANON: Efforts to
implement the Syrian-
Palestinian reconcili-
ation accord broke down
yesterday because of
Syria's insistence that
Lebanese Muslims sympa-
thetic to Damascus be
represented on the quad-
ripartite truce commit-
tee.
. Syrian obstructionism
prompted Arafat to ap-
peal once again for
help from Egypt.
50X1
The Syrians have intentionally
stalled implementation of the two
agreements presumably to give the
Christians more time to consoli-
date their recent military gains.
The Palestinian delegation conduct-
ing talks on the accord returned
to Beirut from Damascus yesterday
to brief Yasir Arafat and leftist
leader Kamal Jumblatt. Neither
has publicly renounced the accord,
but both the Palestinian and left-
ist press have roundly condemned
Syria's latest demand.
In an open letter to President Sa-
dat published yesterday, Arafat
accused Syria of maneuvering on
behalf of the Christians and of
expanding its own military offen-
sive against the Palestinians.
Arafat sent similar messages to
other Arab leaders and met with
the Soviet ambassador in Beirut
yesterday, presumably to request
that Moscow exert greater pressure
on Damascus to settle with the
Palestinians.
--continued
1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
It is unclear whether
the Christians, who
launched another attack
on Tall Zatar on Tues-
day, have committed
sufficient troops to
root out the remaining
defenders of the camp,
most of whom are oper-
ating from a maze of
underground bunkers.
Israeli military offi-
cers have been meeting
periodically with rep-
resentatives of the
renegade Lebanese Arab
Army in an apparent ef-
fort to increase Israeli
influence in southern
Lebanon.
The Christians are generally re-
luctant to take high casualties
and have resisted undertaking a
large-scale ground attack. The
fall of Nabaa, which had been the
main resupply route for the camp,
may have encouraged the Christians
to make their latest move.
The Christians continue to rein-
force their positions south of
Beirut in what appear to be prepa-
rations for cutting off leftist-
controlled west Beirut from the
south. Heavy fighting along the
Beirut-Damascus highway suggests
that the Christians may intend to
break leftist supply routes from
the south before they revive their
offensive in the Mount Lebanon
area.
A senior Israeli official has con-
firmed press reports about the
meetings. The Israelis hope to
use these contacts to discourage
a resumption of cross-border Pal-
estinian commando raids. The Is-
raelis and the renegade Lebanese
may also calculate that their
widely publicized meetings will
serve as an additional warning to
Syria to keep out of the border
region.
The Lebanese probably hope in ad-
dition to learn Israeli intentions
and perhaps ward off any Israeli
moves into southern Lebanon, espe-
cially against the airstrips being
built to facilitate the shipment
of supplies to Palestinian units
in the north.
--continued
2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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An official of the So-
viet Ministry of For-
eign Affairs, who is
concerned with the Mid-
dle East, seemed re-
signed about the Leba-
nese situation when he
talked recently with
the US political coun-
selor in Moscow.
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The official stuck to the line
that there ought to be a cease-
fire followed by talks among the
Lebanese parties without outside
interference, and that the terri-
torial integrity and independence
of Lebanon should be respected.
He was pessimistic about the re-
cent Syria-PLO agreement and said
that the Lebanese civil war was
far from over.
The official claimed that Soviet-
Syrian relations are completely
normal, despite the disagreement
ovdr the presence of Syrian troops
in Lebanon. He expressed doubt
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SYRIA: (
/a grow-
ing number of bombings
and political assassi-
nations in recent weeks.
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that any progress would be possi-
ble on an overall Middle East set-
tlement until after the US elec-
tions and said the next idea for
Middle East negotiations would
have to come from the US.
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Most of the attacks mounted by
Palestinians and Iraqis are in Da-
mascus and are intended to create
public disturbances that will em-
barrass and undermine confidence
in President Asad's regime. The
inability of the Syrians to pre-
vent such attacks in the capital
may mean that some of the govern-
ment's security organizations have
been penetrated by agents of the
Palestinians or Iraqis.
Terrorist activity may increase
as the result of the death of an
imprisoned youth leader, one of
the Muslim radicals, last month.
--continued
4
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
EGYPT - SAUDI ARABIA:
Egypt issued an offi-
cial statement last
night that seems de-
signed to scuttle a new
Saudi effort to cool
the Egyptian-Syrian
dispute. In so doing
Cairo may have further
antagonized its Saudi
ally.
The statement denounced Syria's
continued intervention in Lebanon
as a contravention of the agree-
ment reached between the Egyptian
and Syrian prime ministers at a
reconciliation meeting held under
Saudi auspices in Riyadh in late
June. Syria, the statement de-
clared, has merely used the Riyadh
agreement as a shield for its ter-
ritorial ambitions in Lebanon, and
President Sadat has brought the
"facts" of Syria's "scheme" to
Saudi attention.
The Riyadh meeting in fact re-
sulted in no meaningful agreement,
and the two sides some weeks ago
dropped all pretense of a reconcil-
iation. By trying to enlist the
Saudis in the dispute with Syria,
Cairo has placed Riyadh in an awk-
ward position that could serve to
intensify the Saudis' impatience
with Cairo.
The Egyptian statement follows a
renewed Saudi attempt to end the
Cairo-Damascus suarrel.
50X1
The Saudis undoubtedly are dis-
pleased with Sadat's cavalier re-
sponse to their proposal, and they
may well be angered by what, in ef-
fect, was a public rejection yes-
terday. The Egyptian statement
highlights the embarrassing Saudi
position in the dispute between
Egypt and Syria.
* * *
--continued
5
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Limnos
IONIAN
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
GREECE-TURKEY: The
pace of diplomatic ac-
tivity aimed at avert-
ing a clash between
Greece and Turkey is
accelerating while ten-
sions in the Aegean re-
main high.
JAPAN: Deputy Prime
Minister Fukuda hopes
to persuade Prime Min-
ister Miki that he has
no choice but to resign.
NATO Acting Secretary General
Pansa apparently intends to call
a meeting of the NATO Council to-
day at Belgian insistence to con-
sider the situation. In New York,
the UN Security Council meets to-
day to hear the Greek appeal.
In the Aegean, both sides continue
to have their forces in a high
state of readiness. Additional
Greek units apparently have been
placed on alert or redeployed.
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The Turks have
complained about repeated
Greek harassment of the Sismik and
have warned the Greeks to stop or
face the consequences. The Greeks
have acknowledged keeping a dis-
creet watch on the ship but have
denied being provocative.
With the balance of power in the
ruling Liberal Democratic Party
now clearly in his favor, Fukuda
announced on August 10 that he
would soon begin talks with Miki
about the party's future following
the Lockheed scandal. Finance
Minister Ohira, a former rival of
--continued
6
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KENYA-UGANDA: Kenya
is being cautious about
implementing the agree-
ment concluded last
weekend with Uganda.
Fukuda, publicly endorsed the Dep-
uty Prime Minister's bid for lead-
ership this past weekend. Senior
representatives of former prime
minister Tanaka's faction have
privately agreed to support Fukuda.
Fukuda and Ohira are also planning
to convene a special party conven-
tion late this month in order to
win official endorsement of a lead-
ership change. Faced with the
prospect of a humiliating defeat
at such a caucus, Miki could agree
to step aside voluntarily as the
date approaches.
* * *
The accord provides, among other
matters, for a resumption of normal
interstate commerce. The Nairobi
government is permitting the move-
ment to Uganda of petroleum prod-
ucts, including aviation fuel, in
amounts substantially below those
shipped before the Entebbe incident.
The Kenyans evidently intend to
keep Uganda on short rations until
Nairobi has clear indications that
Kampala is living up to other pro-
visions of the agreement--especially
those related to commercial debts
owed to Kenyan firms and an end to
the harassment of Kenyans living
in Uganda. The Ugandans did re-
lease about 75 Kenyans from cus-
tody last weekend.
Nairobi also intends to hold up
for at least a week or two the
movement from the Kenyan port of
Mombasa of arms and military-re-
lated items intended for Uganda.
Virtually all of Uganda's Soviet-
supplied arms have been delivered
through Mombasa.
* * *
--continued
7
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SOUTHERN AFRICA: An-
gola's Benguela railroad
reportedly will reopen
to international traffic
within a month--after
having been closed for
a year.
USSR: Soviet grain
prospects remain good
as of early August.
We estimate production
at 195 million metric
tons, unchanged from
our estimate in July.
The forecast assumes
normal weather through
harvesting.
Before it closed in August 1975,
the Benguela rail line carried
about half of the trade of both
Zaire and Zambia. This included
about 35 percent of Zaire's copper
exports and 50 percent of Zambia's.
During the past year, these two
countries have tried to reroute
traffic through Dar es Salaam in
Tanzania as well as through other
ports in East Africa. Zaire is
also using South Africa's ports.
Despite limited use of the Tan Zam
railroad since September 1975, cop-
per exports for both countries are
running about 20 to 30 percent be-
low normal levels.
It will probably be at least six
months before pre-war traffic levels
can be attained. Most of the Por-
tuguese who previously operated and
maintained the railroad and port
facilities at Lobito have emigrated,
and skilled replacements will be
difficult to find. Moreover, both
Zaire and Zambia hesitate to com-
mit themselves heavily to this
line until guerrillas operating in
Angola can be brought under con-
trol. Even then the two countries
may not wish to rely on the Ango-
lan regime--which they opposed dur-
ing the civil war--to handle a
large part of their trade.
This approximates the 1974 harvest--
the USSR's second largest grain
crop--and would represent a strong
recovery from last year's disastrous
140 million ton harvest. As a re-
sult, Soviet grain purchases this
calendar year are likely to be only
half of last year's total.
--continued
8
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Confirmed Soviet purchases of grain
for delivery during the coming mar-
keting year total about 10 million
tons--plus 2 million tons of soy-
beans--with an additional 2 million
tons of grain as yet unconfirmed.
Of the confirmed amount of grain
and soybeans, 8.6 million tons will
come from the US.
Under the US-USSR grain agreement,
Moscow must import at least 6 mil-
lion tons of US grain from October
1976 through September 1977. So
far 4.4 million tons is scheduled
for this time period.
--continued
9
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VCRAICPJ
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KENYA
OGADISCIO
BOUNDARY REPRESENTATION IS
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INDIAN OCEAN
50X
0
50 100 150 Miles
0 5'0 100 10 Kilometers
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Recent satellite pho-
tography indicates that
Somalia is preparing to
establish surface-to-
air missile sites in
the northwest to defend
key military facilities
near its borders with
Ethiopia and the French
Territory of Afars and
Issas.
The arrival in Portugal
on Tuesday of former
president Spinola has
fueled left-wing charges
of a "return to fas-
cism," overshadowing
the national assembly's
approval last night of
the Socialist minority
government's program.
NOTES
Mid-July coverage showed 24 SA-2
missile launchers, 52 transporters,
and other support equipment parked
at a location roughly midway be-
tween Berbera and Hargeysa, the
largest cities in northwest Soma-
lia. The new launchers, enough to
form four firing battalions, prob-
ably will be deployed around the
naval complex at Berbera and the
airfield and other military facil-
ities in the vicinity of Hargeysa.
The only other surface-to-air mis-
siles fielded in Somalia are the
three SA-2 firing battalions and
one support battalion around Moga-
discio.
* * *
Spinola was released from military
custody today, but the government's
investigation is continuing. He
has been charged with engaging in
clandestine activities against the
present government during his year
and a half in exile.
The Communists and far left groups
have already called for demonstra-
tions to protest Spinola's return.
Several labor organizations held
rallies yesterday, and far left-50X1
wing groups have called a demon-
stration for today.
--continued
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USSR
--continued
Al
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I.,
ESIDENT ONLY
*
*
*
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