THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 17 JULY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015166
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: July 17, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
/
The President's Daily Brief
July 17, 1976
2
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 5B(1),(2),(3)
declassified on16; on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDE1VT ONLY
July 17, 1976
Table of Contents
USSR-Syria-Lebanon: Moscow is moving toward more overt support
for the Palestinians and also is becoming more openly criti-
cal of Syrian intervention in Lebanon. (Page 1)
Lebanon: Extensive Palestinian and leftist demands are preclud-
ing the opening of any negotiations. (Page 2)
Iraq-Syr-La: The number of Iraqi troops in the border area oppo-
site Syria is now approximately 70,000. (Page 4)
- Egypt - Saudi Arabia: Presidents Numayri and Sadat, who
are visiting Saudi Arabia, probably will seek support to
shore up Numayri's domestic position. (Page 5)
Egypt: President Sadat has overruled his key economic advisers
and decided to postpone economic reforms recommended by the
International Monetary Fund. (Page 5) 25X1
South Africa:/
Notes: China; Kenya-Uganda; Kuwait-USSR; Jamaica; Panama
(Pages 8, 9, 10, and 11)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FUR 1HE FKL51DL1V 1 U1VLY
USSR-SYRIA-LEBANON: An
undramatic but percep-
tible public adjustment
in Soviet policy toward
Syria, the Palestinians,
and the Lebanese crisis
has been under way for
several weeks. The di-
rection is clearly to-
ward more overt support
for the Palestinians
and a still muted but
increasingly open criti-
cism of Syrian inter-
vention.
25X1
The decline in the fortunes of the
Palestinians since the Syrian in-
tervention has resulted ?in increased
pressure on Moscow to come to the
Palestinians' assistance. We know
25X1
The Soviets also have made some po-
litical gestures and have increased
indirect press criticism of Syria.
So far the criticism has been ex-
pressed as the position of third
parties or in journals or newspa-
pers without the highest authori-
tativeness.
25X1
25X1
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Lebanon
A Palestinian Refugee Camp
Syrian Blockade
--Syrian Line of Advance
o Christian Town
0000 Limited Syrian Pullback
MEDITERRANEAN
SEA
Nahr al-Band
A
S V R I AI
CONTESTED CONTESTED
?Iagharta
?
Chrislian
,
Controlled
Al Hirmil.
Predominantly ,-/
v
Muslim 4,
Popu ated e
Dibayah
BEIRUT
Mar JT a7)".Btaar's:LL_
Sabra Shatill Ajtititti,a1.,13araiinah
CON ES ...+FsEaDwAfF1:;.,
Arab League
Security Force
?
0
? .
Liahlih/RIYaq
'1- *Babb
Ily
redosmina/ntly
ted
US
Po 'u!
Syrian
Controlled
Ayii Ata
*DAMASCUS
?
?i Al Khiyam
.e-sitnifia/V1(n)?
Tyr e.,,,AALlit,T
_14 Cont191Ie 1 i
1 l''-Burl al.Shamali /
i ......\
Rashidiyah )
,._"'rt\ CI
.
x 41
'')/-__?4-1-,..,_'''-:"---77kV7.4 -;11
lA..., ISIV1,EL ?""
SNabatiyah
YRIA
MILES
0 KILOMETERS 20
20
620064 7.76 CIA
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19: CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 ? CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
I UK 111C rKEJILJ,C1V 1 UIVLI
LEBANON: Palestine
Liberation Organization
chairman Yasir Arafat
refused to go to Damas-
cus yesterday. The ex-
tensive demands being
made by Palestinian and
leftist leaders are ef-
fectively precluding
the opening of any nego-
tiations.
25X1
Moscow obviously is fearful that
Asad will destroy the Palestinians
as an independent political factor
in the Middle East, thereby depriv-
ing Moscow of one of the few re-
maining cards in its Middle East
hand. But the Soviets probably
would be highly reluctant to mort-
gage their considerable investment
in Syria to support the Palestin-
ians, about whom they have long
had ambivalent feelings--especially
if there is no guarantee that they
can, in fact, save the Palestinians.
After meeting with Arafat on Thurs-
day, the Palestinians announced
that he would refuse to begin talks
until Syria had proved its good
will by withdrawing completely
from the south and the Mount Leba-
non area and until a satisfactory
agenda had been agreed on. Other
leftists added that Syria also
must withdraw from Balabakk and
Tripoli before a dialogue could
occur. The Palestinians left open
the possibility of sending a lower
level delegation to work out an
agenda, but there has been no re-
action from Damascus.
25X1
2
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
25X1
25X1
Although military ac-
tivity throughout Leba-
non yesterday was gen-
erally low, the Syrians
seem to be staying put.
It is doubtful that the
Syrians are eager to get involved
in a potentially costly attack on
west Beirut, although they may at
some point encourage the Christia25X1
to hit selected targets.
25X1
Syrian forces remain near Sawfar--
the immediate cause of Arafat's
refusal to talk--and that they are
still concentrated in the area of
Jazzin, only 12 miles from Sidon.
The heaviest fighting was in the
north, where the Syrians have sur-
rounded the Nahr al -Band refugee
camp near Tripoli and captured a
crossroads north of the camp.
25X1
3
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Iraqi Troop Buildup
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19: CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
25X1
MIMI!
cJ
L-___
1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
In a talk with Ambassa-
dor Murphy on Thursday,
Syria's deputy prime
minister for economic
affairs made it clear
that the Lebanese crisis
has put a severe strain
on Syria's economy.
IRAQ-SYRIA: Baghdad is
continuing to build up
its military strength
in western Iraq.
Perhaps as many as half a million
Lebanese refugees have fled to Syria.
The minister also noted that there
have been acute shortages of bread,
rice, and sugar throughout Syria,
some of which have been caused by
Lebanese briefly entering Syria to
stock up on provisions.
Over the past three weeks, more
than 20,000 troops have been
shifted to areas west of the capi-
tal. These movements bring the
number of troops in the border
area opposite Syria to approxi-
mately 70,000, where only some
20,000 are normally stationed.
The forces remain along the three
main roads leading into Syria.
The westward deployments, which
began over a month ago, may have
been designed to force Damascus to
reduce its pressure on Palestinian
forces in Lebanon and to increase
domestic opposition to President
Asad. Although these objectives
evidently have not been achieved,
the deployments have placed Iraqi
forces in a position to take mili-
tary action with little warning.
4
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
L
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SUDAN - EGYPT - SAUDI
ARABIA: Presidents
Numayri and Sadat, who
begin a visit to Saudi
Arabia today, probably
will discuss with Saudi
leaders a common course
of action to shore up
Numayri's position in
the wake of the abor-
tive coup against him
in early July. The
coup attempt appar-
ently was backed by
Libya, and there also
may be discussions on
what to do about Lib-
ya's "activism."
EGYPT: Overruling his
key economic officials,
President Sadat has de-
cided to postpone eco-
nomic reforms recom-
mended by the Interna-
tional Monetary Fund,
at least until after
the parliamentary elec-
tion in October. Sadat
fears his radical oppo-
nents would try to cap-
italize on any disrup-
tions caused by the re-
forms.
Sadat and Numayri are likely to
play on Saudi fears that the ouster
of the present government in Khar-
toum would eventually lead to a
radical leftist regime and enhance
Soviet influence throughout the
western Red Sea littoral.
Numayri probably would like to
try to ensure the backing of the
Sudanese military by obtaining
modern weapons to replace aging
Soviet-supplied arms. A Saudi
handout of cash or more aid for
development projects would further
buttress Numayri's domestic posi-
tion. Egypt also might be willing
to provide limited military assis-
tance to Sudan, but Sadat probably
is more immediately interested in
discussing what to do about Libyan
President Qadhafi.
Cairo has been hinting broadly in
public that it might be planning
some operation against Qadhafi,
Sadat may well explore
with the Saudis the advisability
of, and the financing for, some
sort of operation against Qadhafi.
Under the agreement with the IMF,
worked out over the last six
months by Egypt's economic and fi-
nancial ministers, the Fund was
expected to provide $300 million
in loans and to support Egypt's
aid requests to other donors. In
return, the Egyptians were to im-
plement in July a reform package
highlighted by a managed downward
5
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
25X1
25X1
I 4-
-
L ,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SOUTH AFRICA;'
float of the overvalued Egyptian
pound. The IMF disbursed an ini-
tial $108 million to Cairo in June,
expecting it to be used to combat
speculation against the pound when
the float took place.
Sadat's decision dims prospects
for additional aid this year from
the IMF or other potential lenders.
Saudi Arabia--Cairo's last resort
for cash aid--has been critical of
Egyptian financial practices and
may hold back further assistance
until reform measures are actually
undertaken.
We are uncertain how Sadat expects
to get through the next few months.
Cairo has only enough gold and for-
eign exchange on hand to finance
two weeks' imports. With no addi-
tional aid in sight, Egypt may be
forced to survive largely on high-
cost, short-term loans until Novem-
ber, when cotton sales boost for-
eign exchange receipts.
Sadat's reversal raises serious
questions about his grasp of
Egypt's economic situation. It
may also be another indication of
leadership difficulties in Cairo.
Egypt's foreign and defense minis-
ters are attempting to tone down
Sadat's pro-US policies in order
to patch up relations with the
USSR.
25X1
6
--continued
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Cameroon
Malabo
\ I
EqGuuttarl a I
Gabon
Central African Republic
Bangui
Ethiopia
Victoria
*Nairobi
Brazzaville
Cab' ridi?
Buju
'Bu
bora
undi
*Kinshasa
Tanzania
63P
*Oar es
/ Salaam
*Luanda
Namibia
( \
South-West Africa)
Rhodesia
Walvis Bay
(S. At.)
Atlantic
20066 7.76
Windhoek
Botswana
*Pretoria
,Maputo
bane
Swazila
South
Ocean Africa
bique
In
Ocean
opo MILES '
500 KILOMETERS
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
25X1
25X1
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
I.-
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The death last week of
the commander of Chi-
nese forces in Fu-chou
Military Region, as
well as bad weather,
caused a temporary halt
in military exercises
near the southern en-
trance to the Taiwan
Strait. The commander
was apparently killed
in an airplane accident.
British officials fear
that leaks about new
arms aid to Kenya may
impel Uganda's Presi-
dent Amin to retaliate
against British sub-
jects in Uganda or make
more threatening moves
against Kenya before
the aid arrives.
NOTES
The Chinese have been conducting
unusual air and naval training
near the mainland coast opposite
Taiwan since early May. The depar-
ture of some naval ships for their
normal operating areas in early
July had raised the possibility
that the military exercises oppo-
site Taiwan were ending. A subse-
quent increase in air and ground
activity, however, indicates that
the exercises are continuing.
British officials see no way to
protect some 500 British subjects
in Uganda. Prime Minister Calla-
ghan told critics in Parliament on
July 15 that the British in Uganda
would have to make their own deci-
sion to leave or remain.
Amin may well step up his verbal
condemnation of Kenya, but he prob-
ably will avoid a major military
attack. If he does decide to re-
taliate, he is more likely to or-
der limited cross-border air or
ground raids. Constraints on Amin
include a fuel shortage brought
about by Kenya's partial blockade
of petroleum supplies and the gen-
eral inefficiency of his armed
forces.
8
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
25X1
1 1=-7....1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Kuwait's deputy prime
minister this week told
the US ambassador that
Kuwait has agreed to
purchase $300 million
worth of Soviet weapons.
The agreement would be Kuwait's
first major arms deal with a commu-
nist country. It also would mark
Moscow's first entrance into the
lucrative Persian Gulf arms market.
The Kuwaiti official said that the
decision to buy Soviet weapons was
made to counter National Assembly
criticism of the concentration of
Kuwait's arms purchases in the
West. Nevertheless, he said Ku-
wait would continue to rely on the
West for major defensive weapons
systems and military training.
Kuwait already has a Hawk surface-
to-air missile system on order
from the US.
The deputy prime minister
stated that most of the advisers
needed to train Kuwaitis to use
their new weapons would come from
Egypt and Syria in order to keep
Soviet advisers at a minimum.
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
25X1
25X1
25X1
L-1 4 IC-71
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Jamaica
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
10
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Pan-
ama
A leading newspaper this week
headlined charges that US planes
had fired on Panamanian troops
near the Canal Zone. Another pro-
vocative article alleged that two
Panamanian students arrested for
trespassing in the Zone had been
abused at their court hearing.
Both stories seem groundless. The
US flights, for example, were rou-
tinely cleared by Panamanian au-
thorities. Moreover, National
Guard officers have told US offi-
cials privately that there were no
air attacks.
Torrijos probably is trying to dis-
tract restless students and other
ultra-left groups who recently
have increased their criticism of
him for the lack of tangible prog-
ress in the canal treaty negotia-
tions.
11
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
MI MN Midi ILA MUM LAI Sipa iled
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013500010026-9