THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 2 JULY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015153
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: July 2, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
July 2, 1976
2
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 58(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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July 2, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Christian forces yesterday launched what they expect to
be the?flRaattack on Tall Zatar refugee camp. (Page 1)
. .
'
? .(Page 1)
Spain: The resignation yesterday of Prime Minister Arias may pro-
vide new impetus to the government's reform program. (Page 2)
Jordan-USSR: Another report on the Soviet air defense package
offered King Husayn gives lower figures than those quoted
by the Jordanian air force chief. (Page 3)
Ethiopia-Somalia: Ethiopia conducted a military exercise Tuesday
near its border with Somalia and the French Territory of the
Afars and Issas. (Page 4)
Angola: The government is trying to increase the efficiency of
its army, apparently because of its concern over continuing
guerrilla activity by Jonas Savimbirs National Union.
(Page 4)
Jamaica: The state of emergency imposed in mid-June appears to
be accelerating political polarization and solidifying Prime
Minister Manley's alliance with the radical wing of his
party. (Page 5)
Notes: Italy; Poland; USSR-Iran; Peru; Sudan (Pages 7, 8, and 9)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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V AL, LA A L., A- 1.1. ? A
LEBANON: Christian
forces yesterday
launched what they ex-
pect to be the final
attack on Tall Zatar
refugee camp. Pales-
tinian defenders of the
camp--estimated at
6,000--have reportedly
been ordered not to
surrender.
Arab League Secretary
General Riyad and his
two-man peace committee
left for Beirut yester-
day despite the fact
that their call for a
cease-fire yesterday
has been totally dis-
regarded.
As the battle for Tall Zatar grows
even more severe, fear of Pales-
tinian and leftist reprisals has
gripped Beirut. The greatest con-
cern is for some 70,000 Christians
who live in Muslim-controlled areas
of Beirut and its environs.
Muslim leftist leaders and Salah
Khalaf--the ranking Palestinian
leader in the absence from Leba-
non of Yasir Arafat--are report-
edly trying to prevent unauthor-
ized acts of vengeance and have
publicly promised that "peaceful"
Christian enclaves will not be at-
tacked. Neither Palestinian nor
leftist leaders, however, are cap-
able of controlling the numerous
factions that operate throughout
Beirut. 25X1
Jumblatt report-
edly told an Arab League official
this week that he was prepared to
consider any form of negotiation
if the Christians would withdraw
to their former positions around 25X1
Tall Zatar.
The committee will have virtually
no-impact on the situation until
the Christians have achieved their
victory over Tall Zatar, and even
then the prospects for negotiating
a truce are bleak.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
--continued
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SPAIN: The resignation
yesterday of Prime Min-
ister Arias, reportedly
at the request of King
Juan Carlos, may pro-
vide new impetus to the
government's reform pro-
gram. The move came as
a surprise to the cabi-
net, which must also
resign.
The most likely candi-
date at this stage ap-
pears to be Interior
Minister Fraga, the
chief architect of the
reform program and the
dominant force in Arias
cabinet.
The Saudi and Sudanese contingents
of the league security force have
entered Lebanon and reportedly
were stationed yesterday on the
outskirts of Beirut.
Juan Carlos has been displeased
for some time with Arias' failure
to provide strong leadership for
the government's liberalization
efforts. The King has hesitated
until now to replace the Prime
Minister because he could not be
sure the rightist-dominated Coun-
cil of the Realm, a 17-man advi-
sory body, would approve a reform-
minded successor. Juan Carlos ap-
parently now feels more confident
that he can prevail on the Council
to nominate someone of his choice.
The King will select the new prime
minister from a slate of three
names the Council must submit
within ten days. The King's secre-
tary told Ambassador Stabler that
the man chosen would be one of the
present cabinet ministers.
Fraga faces opposition from the
right, however, for his strong sup-
port of reform and from the left
for his role as chief of the inter-
nal security forces.
Another candidate is Foreign Minis-
ter Areilza, but he is distrusted
by the right and the military be-
cause of his strong liberal image.
If the Council decides that both
Fraga and Areilza are too liberal,
a compromise candidate might be the
young minister of the National
Movement, Adolfo Suarez, who favors
gradual reform.
--continued
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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F vix 1 1.IIL v
JORDAN-USSR: Another
report on the Soviet
air defense package of-
fered King Husayn late
last month gives lower
figures than those
quoted by General Aboud,
chief of the Jordanian
air force, which we re-
ported in the Daily Brief
June 30.
Chief of Air Force
General Aboud
General Aboud claimed the Soviets
offered Jordan 40 missile batteries.
The armed forces commander, Gen-
eral bin Shakir who, like General
Aboud, accompanied King Husayn to
Moscow, told the US ambassador yes-
terday that the USSR agreed to pro-
vide up to 28 batteries.
Shakir went on to explain that the
King is revising the Soviet pro-
posal down to 24 batteries. The
revision would eliminate the SA-2
system which the Jordanian air
force considers old, inefficient,
and requiring too much manpower;
it would increase the number of
SA-3 and SA-6 units reportedly
offered by the Soviets.
We are still not certain what num-
ber of missile batteries were actu-
ally offered. We compare the re-
ported packages below.
Armed Forces Commander Revised Jordanian
General bin Shakir Package
40 batteries
28 batteries
24 batteries
9
SA-2
9
SA-2
0
SA-2
16
SA-3
9
SA-3
12
SA-3
15
SA-6
10
SA-6
12
SA-6
600 SA-7 (shoulder-
launched)
unknown number of
ZSU-23/4 (self-pro-
pelled antiaircraft
gun)
100 SA-7 100 SA-7
60 ZSU-23/4 72 ZSU-23/4
3
--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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The Horn of Africa
KHARTOUM
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IND I A Ar
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200 Kilometers
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lufix. 1.-d A I V LILY 1-1 IVA WAV LI .1
ETHIOPIA-SOMALIA:
Ethiopia conducted a
military exercise on
Tuesday near its border
with Somalia and the
French Territory of the
Afars and Issas.
ANGOLA: The ruling
Popular Movement is
working hard to in-
crease the efficiency
of its army, apparently
because of its concern
over continuing guer-
rilla activity by Jonas
Savimbi 's National
Union.
The exercise apparently was in-
tended as a show of force to dem-
onstrate Ethiopia's resolve. to
contest any Somali moves into the
FTAI. Addis Ababa does not nor-
mally station units in the tri-
border area.
In response, Mogadiscio has ordered
three battalions to move to the
border area, according to a source
of the US dfnc attache in Addis
Ababa.
the Somalis
have sent a reconnaissance team
across the border to observe the
Ethiopian troops.
General Teferi Benti, chairman of
Ethiopia's ruling military council,
told the US ambassador this week
that Addis Ababa is not only con-
cerned about Somalia's intentions
toward the FTAI but is also watch-
ing Somali-supported insurgent
activity in southern Ethiopia.
This is the first official Ethio-
pian reference to infiltration ac-
ross the southern border.
Teferi said the military council
considers private Soviet assur-
ances that Moscow will do its best
to restrain Somalia to be "less
than satisfactory." He urged US-
Soviet collaboration to preserve
peace in the area.
--continued
4
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(Cameroon
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JAMAICA: The state of
emergency imposed on
June 19 appears to be
accelerating political
polarization and so-
lidifying Prime Minis-
ter Manley's alliance
with the radical wing
of his party.
The National Union, meanwhile, is
said to have worked out an arrange-
ment with South Africa for the
use of Namibia as a supply corri-
dor./
The security minister has an-
nounced that 353 persons have been
arrested, many of them leaders and
organizers of the opposition Ja-
maica Labor Party. Labor Party
leader Seaga has denounced the
government's actions as a "polit-
ical witch hunt" aimed at assur-
ing victory by Manley and a major-
ity of his party's candidates in
the elections that must be held
by next spring.
The partisan enforcement of the
state of emergency has caused pub-
lic opinion to turn against the
government, according to the US
--continued
5
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FOR 1HL" FRESIDElVi? U1VL Y
embassy. Manley's failure so far
to establish a tribunal to review
the cases of persons detained also
has undermined the government's
credibility.
Manley, meanwhile, has publicly
claimed that the security forces
have uncovered evidence of subver-
sion and terrorism aimed at over-
throwing his government. A gov-
ernment-sponsored propaganda cam-
paign has attempted to link the
Labor Party with these "plots."
Manley's campaign against Seaga
and the Labor Party undoubtedly has
been urged on him by the increas-
ingly influential radical wing of
his party.
--continued
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r Lin .1 17E, EIXGO.I.L/ILIV .1 111V 1.1
Italy's Christian Demo-
cratic Party has called
for a coalition with
the Socialists and has
offered the Communist
opposition a limited
consultative role in
the formulation of gov-
ernment policies.
Polish officials are re-
leasing more details
about last week's dis-
turbances.
NOTES
Christian Democratic chief Zaccag-
nini made clear that the Communists
would be consulted on the new gov-
ernment's program, but said they
would have to remain in the oppo-
sition rather than become part of
the government's working majority
in parliament, as the Socialists
have been demanding.
Zaccagnini was vague about the
format for discussions with the
Communists, but implied that the
negotiations would take place in
parliament. The Christian Demo-
crats in the past have resisted
the idea of negotiating openly
with the Communists in parliament
on the grounds that such an arrange-
ment would blur the distinction
between the governing majority and
the opposition.
The mayor of Radom, where the lo-
cal party headquarters were gutted,
has stated that 75 militiamen were
hurt, eight of them seriously, in
the "fighting," and that two demon-
strators were accidently killed by
other workers. He said that all
those who had been detained would
receive deserved punishment.
Polish party leader Gierek will re-
portedly make a "major" speech to-
day in his home town of Katowice
where he can be confident of a
large and warm welcome.
7
--continued
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? LF.Lx. 1 .L.I.Ld I it LI L AL" LAVA V .1-1 A
Peru's military regime
reacted swiftly yester-
day to quell demonstra-
tions, strikes, and
limited violence in
Lima and its port, Cal-
lao.
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The disturbances followed the gov-
ernment's announcement of severe
economic austerity measures. A
30-day state of emergency has been
declared that suspends some per-
sonal freedoms, and a curfew has
been imposed for Lima and Callao.
The incidents and the measures
President Francisco Morales Bermu-
dez has been obliged to take do
not augur well for the stability
of his government. The President's
power base is not strong
--continued
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LEL, I 'VI.: 11_, .1 V _I /1 V
Firing broke out in var-
ious quarters of Khar-
toum this morning. Su-
danese President Nu-
mayri, who had just re-
turned to the country,
reportedly slipped away.
Since an attempted coup was
promptly put down last September,
there have been several reports of
serious unrest in the military.
In late May, several Sudanese of-
ficers were arrested in connection
with an alleged Libyan-backed plot
against Numayri, although they had
made no overt move.
9
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Top Secret
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