THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 19 JUNE 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015141
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: June 19, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
June 19, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 511(1).12),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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June 19, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: We have no independent evidence to support Palestinian
contentions that security conditions have deteriorated to
such an extent that the Palestinians cannot guarantee the
safety of the US evacuation convoy. (Page 1)
There have been additional Syrian and Iraqi troop movements.
(Page 1)
Egypt is boosting Iraq's attempt to intimidate Syria.
(Page 1)
The Soviets are still keeping close watch over US naval
units in the Mediterranean. (Page 2)
Italy: The recent volatility of the electorate and the large
numbers of undecided voters place in doubt all projections
for the national election on Sunday and Monday. The final
vote may not be known until Tuesday morning, Washington
time. (Page 2)
Notes: USSR (Brezhnev); USSR (Salyut 5); Cuba-Congo; Argentina
(Pages 5 and 6)
At Annex we review the performance of Prime Minister Vorster of
South Africa.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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BEIR9"
Syrian
Libyan
Khalda
Fatah cad
Lebanese Leftist
Sidon,
Demo,
SYR IA'
-Tilpoli
Fatah
LEBA
amdtrn
Ay1.Pass
S a Mar Alawra
Baydar .Z
an
Regutars
Mas a
Evacuation route
used by British
I
E L
DAMASCUS
YRIA
MILES 20
0 KILOMETERS 20
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LEBANON: We have no
independent evidence to
support the Palestinian
contention that security
conditions have deteri-
orated to such an ex-
tent that the Palestin-
ians could not guaran-
tee the safety of the
evacuation convoy from
Beirut.
Further Syrian and
Iraqi troop movements
occurred yesterday.
We now have firm evi-
dence that Egypt is en-
couraging Iraq's cur-
rent effort to intimi-
date Syria.
The Palestinians are probably try-
ing to make political gains for
themselves by drawing out the ne-
gotiations on the convoy's depar-
ture.
Palestinian leaders presumably
hope they can prompt the US to
abandon plans for a land convoy
and instead use Beirut airport.
They might think this would lead
to a dilution of Syrian control or
airport and permit an ,e-arly
introduction of the Arab League
security force.
The US embassy reports that addi-
tional Syrian troops have entered
Lebanon. The troops probably came
from units that have been deployed'
along the Lebanese border.
Press reports state that theIraqi
armed forces chief of staff bade
farewell in Baghdad to Iraqi units
advancing west "to perform their
national duty." This is the third
time the Iraqis have staged a pub-.
lic ceremony to dramatize the move-
ment of forces toward the Syrian
border.
We now estimate that more than
50,000 troops are in western Iraq.
Additional units .continue to move
westward.
--continued
1
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Mediterranean
Sea
TURKEY
SYRIA
Tripol
LEBNON
BEIRUT e.*%
Sidon
ISRA Lr"
Tel Aviv-
WEST
Yafo \ BANK
Sin IO
es
DAMASCUS
GOLAN
HEIGHTS
AMMAN
JORDAN
Dead
Sea
I R A
H-3 Aab
r Rt.
?
SAUDI ARABIA
100 Miles
100 Kilometers
a madi
Baghdad
b niva
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The Soviets are contin-
uing to monitor the
movement of US naval
units in the Mediterra-
nean.
?ITALY: The election
campaign ended yester-
day, and voters are ob-
serving the traditional
one-day "pause for re-
flection" before cast-
ing ballots tomorrow or
on Monday.
25X1
Sadat appears to have been prompted
by his feud with Damascus and by
the need to respond to appeals this
week from Palestinian and Lebanese
leftists for help in countering
Syria's military operations. Cairo
had already announced that it would
not intervene directly.
The US amphibious task group south-
west of Cyprus is being followed
by a frigate. Southeast of Crete,
the USS America carrier task group
is under surveillance by five So-
viet surface ships and a cruise-
missile submarine. The commander
of the Soviet Mediterranean Squad-
ron is aboard a cruiser with this
group. There are now about 63 So-
viet submarines and ships of all
types in the Mediterranean.
Voters who have not made up their
minds--polls suggest that 10 to 20
percent were still undecided near
the end of the campaign--will be
reflecting mainly on the conflict-
ing arguments advanced during the
campaign about what it would mean
to give the Communists a larger
role in national politics.
?.continued
2
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There are indications that Commu-
nist leader Berlinguer provoked
considerable criticism within his
party by saying earlier in the
week that he felt "more secure" in
NATO than he would outside of the,,,,
alliance. He implied that Italia'^'
membership in NATO protected his
party from Soviet interference.
25X1
The formation of a government after
the election, which promises to be
difficult in any event, could be
complicated by an election techni-
cality that raises the possibility
of a stronger showing for the left
in the Chamber than in the Senate.
Approximately 5 million voters be-
tween the ages of 18 and 25 are
eligible to vote only for the Cham-
ber and are likely to give strong
support to the left.
Most observers expect a result sim-
ilar to that of the regional elec-
tions a year ago, in which the
Christian Democrats, with just
over 35 percent, got a narrow mar-
gin over the Communists--while the
Socialists placed third with 12
percent. The recent volatility
of the electorate, however, and
the large numbers of undecided
voters place all projections in
doubt.
--continued
3
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Fragmentary returns
should be available by
noon on Monday, Washing-
ton time. The final
vote and seat distribu-
tion may not be known
until Tuesday morning.
The voters will be electing 630
deputies and 315 senators. Eligi-
ble voters cast ballots for both
races during a single visit to the
polls on Sunday or Monday. Slightly
more than 40 million citizens are
eligible to vote in the Chamber
election and about 35 million for
the Senate.
Participation has only once fallen
below 90 percent in the six preced-
ing postwar parliamentary elections
There is no provision for absentee
ballot.
The government subsidizes travel
to the town of official residence
if a voter is working elsewhere in
Italy and, in the case of Italians
residing overseas, travel from the
Italian border to their official
residence. The West German govern-
ment is making it possible for sev-
eral hundred thousand Italian work-
ers resident in West Germany to re-
turn free-of-charge to Italy to
vote.
--continued
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Soviet leader Brezhnev
has been maintaining a
busy schedule. In his
most recent public ap-
pearances, he has seemed
in better form than when
he first returned to
work in late April af-
ter a lengthy absence.
The Soviets apparently
are preparing to launch
a military version of
the Salyut space sta-
tion, Salyut 5, possi-
bly early next week.
A Soyuz spacecraft prob-
ably will be launched
within two weeks to
carry cosmonauts to the
space station.
NOTES
In the last month, Brezhnev gener-
ally has worked seven or more hours
a day. During the same period he
apparently conducted all three Pol-
itburo meetings, including an un-
usual four-hour session on June 3
that was attended by full and can-
didate members who reside outside
Moscow.
Brezhnev appeared in good spirits
and fully relaxed during Indian
Prime Minister Gandhi's recent
visit. Television coverage of
Brezhnev's public activities has
resumed.
Salyut 5 is likely to function as
an operational intelligence collec-
tor and as a test vehicle for vari-
ous experimental systems. Soviet
cosmonauts recently stated that it
will have two docking ports and
will be able to support as many as
six cosmonauts simultaneously.
These features would enable the
Soviets to send up replacement
crews and supplies in ferry vehi-
cles, and thereby extend the space
station's life. This would be a
major step toward Moscow's goal of
establishing large, long-term
manned space stations.
Salyut 5 probably will be manned
initially by a two-man crew for
about 90 days. The present manned
space record is 84 days, set by
the US Skylab 3 in 1974. The So-
viet record of 63 days was set
last year.
--continued
5
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Cuba
Congo
The killing yesterday
of Argentina's federal
police chief General
Cardozo was the fourth
attack on a military
man by le-ft-i?st terror-
ists in. the past week.
25X1
The terrorists hope their violence
will provoke such a harsh response
from the security forces that the
public will turn against the gov-
ernment. Although President Videla
thus far has resisted calls from
"hard-line" officers for the use of
stronger measures against the ter-
rorists, each additional act of
violence gives greater weight to
the officers' arguments.
--continued
6
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ANGOLA
?
Insh.; Pan
NAMIBIA
?Windhoek
WALVIS BAY2Y5lvi5 Bay
(SOUTH AFRICA)
(SOUTH-WEST
AFRICA)
South
Atlantic
-
Ocean
250 Miles
250 Kilometers
ZAMBIA
mahgadikg?,,b,
BOTSWANA
Gaborone
?
o,
SOUTH
AFRICA
Zanthe/i
M?Z MBIQUE
Pretoria
v_yr ?
?
Johannesburg , ?
baba
? SWAZILAND
Maser',
LESOTHO (e/
Indian Ocean
Vlaputu
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SOUTH AFRICA
Prime Minister John Vorster, who is to
meet with Secretary Kissinger in Germany
on June 23, is the unrivaled leader of
South Africa's ruling National Party.
The party represents the bulk of the Af-
rikaners--descendants of the 17th century
European settlers who now comprise some
60 percent of the white population.
During the past two years Vorster has intensified
his efforts to open discreet dialogues with leaders
of black African states. Having talked at length
with the presidents of Ivory Coast, Senegal, Libe-
ria, and Zambia, he is aware that none of the impor-
tant black leaders are likely to collaborate openly
with his government unless it stops supporting white
rule in Rhodesia, starts to prepare Namibia (South-
West Africa) for early independence, and begins to
make some basic changes in South Africa itself.
\ He has prom-
ised some softening of living condItions for urban
blacks, but only within the context of apartheid.
Vorster's collaboration with four black African
presidents in efforts to mediate the Rhodesian prob-
lem was the most promising breakthrough for his in-
formal diplomacy, but the collapse of the settlement
talks clearly showed its limitations. So long as a
political solution seemed possible, Vorster was will-
ing to press Prime Minister Smith, and his prodding
held the Rhodesian leader to grudging negotiations
with the black nationalists from late 1974 to early
1976.
Now that the talks have failed and a full-blown in-
surgency is developing, however, Vorster is unlikely
to take the steps that would bring Smith to his
knees, such as an embargo on economic support. Any
move that suggests compliance with the UN sanctions
program against Rhodesia would be anathema to white
South Africans.
--continued
Al
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The adverse international reactions to the South
African intervention in Angola have at least tempo-
rarily discouraged moderate African leaders from
further dealings with Vorster. At home, however,
the Angolan venture apparently has not seriously af-
fected Vorster's political influence. In late Janu-
ary, in the midst of the Angolan involvement, Vor-
ster won a parliamentary vote of confidence.
Namibia
Vorster is pushing a program of self-determination
for Namibia that is unacceptable to the UN and the
Organization of African Unity. Pretoria's goal for
the territory appears to be independence under a
loose federal system that would maintain control by
whites of the territory's principal resources.
The Namibian constitutional conference that was con-
vened last year consists of delegates representing
nine indigenous tribes, two mulatto groups, and the
white settlers. The South-West African People's
Organization, the only Namibian nationalist group
recognized by the UN and the OAU, is not participat-
ing. Vorster himself has shown no inclination to
nudge the white delegates toward broadening non-
white participation.
Bantustans
In his dialogues with African presidents, Vorster
has pointed out that Transkei, one of the eight
self-governing Bantustans--tribal homelands--in
South Africa proper, is to become fully independent
next October 26. The remainder of South African
blacks eventually are supposed to attain indepen-
dence in their own Bantustans. Official publicity
glosses over the facts that Transkei is the only
homeland to have a consolidated territorial base,
that all tribal homelands amount to only 13.7 per-
cent of South Africa's territory, and that planned
consolidation programs are mere reassortments of
land fragments within the overall quota.
The Bantustan program is intended to remove the
bulk of the black population from the urban areas
to the homelands. Pretoria has heavily subsidized
"border industries" and other projects designed to
create jobs for blacks in or near the homelands.
Nevertheless, the extensive industrial growth since
the Nationalists came to power in 1948 has acceler-
ated the aggregation of blacks in the major urban
areas.
--continued
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Urban Blacks
The net result of the gap between apartheid doctrine
and economic realities is that most urban blacks
lead a precarious squatter's existence. Vorster
has not proposed any basic change in the controls
that are intended to restrict blacks to their tribal
homelands unless they are regularly employed. He
also has not shown readiness to repeal the labor
codes that reserve skilled industrial jobs for
whites and exclude black trade unions from legally
sanctioned collective bargaining.
The continual tightening of repressive measures
against all spontaneous non-white activities that
might have political potential contrasts sharply
with Vorster's toleration of some carping from
authorized spokesmen, such as the homeland chiefs
or the Colored Persons Representative Council.
Although relatively few non-white groups have
been banned outright, they have been rendered impo-
tent by detaining or banning individual activists
as soon as they show their heads.
The absence of genuinely representative organiza-
tions among urban blacks and the lack of open
channels for expressing their aspirations or
grievances breeds tensions that sometimes erupt
in demonstrations and riots, such as the events
of this week.
A3
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Top Secret
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