THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 JUNE 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015136
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: June 15, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
June 15, 1976
2
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category 5B(
declauified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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June 15, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Palestinian and Lebanese leftists yesterday made more
appeals for outside help in countering Syrian military pres-
sure. (Page 1)
Lebanese politicians are doing little to help achieve a ne-
gotiated solution to the conflict. (Page 2)
The Syrians are keeping up their sieges of Beirut and other
key cities. (Page 2)
Iraq-Syria: There are indications that Iraqi leaders believe
that the massing of their forces on the Syrian border has
achieved their objective. (Page 3)
No further Iraqi troop movements have been detected since
Saturday. (Page 3)
Syria is still shifting troops from the Golan Heights to
positions near the Iraqi border. (Page 4)
USSR: The Soviets may be delaying a reduction in the size of
their Mediterranean fleet. (Page 5)
China: Chairman Mao's health evidently has declined to the point
where he may no longer receive foreigners. (Page 6)
Ethiopia: Addis Ababa has called off the armed peasant offensive
against Eritrean rebels. (Page 6)
Notes: China-Philippines; EC (foreign ministers); EC-Portugal
(Pages 8 and 9)
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fiLlIARAT
I-1114$ -
MEDITERRANEAN
SEA
Sido
BEIRUT
DAMASCUS
A
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0 KILOMETERS 20
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_ _ _
LEBANON: Palestinian
and Lebanese leftist
leaders yesterday ap-
pealed to Egypt, Iraq,
and Tunisia to send
military forces to Leb-
anon to counter contin-
uing Syrian initiatives.
These forces apparently
would supplement the
security force approved
last week by the Arab
League foreign minis-
ters.
The Palestinians and
leftists yesterday also
appealed to political
and material support
from the USSR, China,
and various third world
states and international
organizations.
Palestine Liberation Organization
chairman Yasir Arafat met yester-
day with President Sadat in Cairo,
presumably to make a personal plea
for help. Arafat reportedly is
very discouraged, and probably
fears that resupplied Syrian forces
will launch a major new offensive.
Arafat's appeal will put Cairo on
the spot. The Egyptians had al-
ready announced that they had de-
cided against a joint intervention
with Iraq, and it is unlikely that
they would commit troops under any
circumstances in which they might
be drawn into combat with Syria.
At the same time, Cairo will find
it embarrassing and politically
costly to reject Arafat's request
outright.
The feud with Syria seems to be
blurring Cairo's perspective on
Lebanon and--faced with the di-
lemma posed by Arafat's appeal--
the Egyptians might decide that
an Egyptian-Iraqi landing at a
port such as Tyre in Southern Leb-
anon is in order. Tyre is the
only major Lebanese city not under
Syrian siege. Iraq probably would
join such a venture. Egypt, mean-
while, reportedly is assisting
Iraq in shipping arms to leftist
forces in Lebanon.
They appear to have lost all hope
that the Arab League will be able
to forestall Syria's military oc-
cupation of Lebanon. Arab League
Secretary General Riyad yesterday
denied in Damascus that the joint
Arab force's entry into Lebanon
has been postponed indefinitely.
He acknowledged, however, that it
may be another 10 days before the
force will be formed and committed.
--continued
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Lebanese politicians
are doing almost noth-
ing to negotiate an end
to the crisis.
Syrian forces continue
to press their Pales-
tinian and leftist ad-
versaries by maintain-
ing the sieges of Bei-
rut, Sidon, and Tripoli.
According to press reports, Riyad
will visit Beirut today. Libyan
Prime Minister Jallud reportedly
traveled from Damascus to Beirut
yesterday with new Syrian propos-
als to present to the various fac-
tions. The Palestinians, however,
are not likely to be encouraged
either by Jallud's return or by
any new proposals. Syrian spokes-
men this week have reinforced the
Palestinians' fears that Damascus
will not ease the military pres-
sure.
Extremist Christians are applaud-
ing what they consider Damascus'
determination to crush the Pales-
tinians. Their more conciliatory
colleagues despair of doing any- ,
thing while the military confronta-
tion continues. The Christians
have acknowledged privately, how-
ever, that their denunciation of
the Arab League is designed prima-
rily to buttress Syria's position.
Syrian and Saiqa units at Khaldah
control the southern approaches to
Beirut, including the airport.
The road between Beirut and Sidon
is closed again.
The main Syrian military advance
yesterday was in southern Lebanon,
where Syrian forces occupied the
town of Roshayya. Syrian units
reportedly also were trying to se-
cure control of Nabatiyah, site of
a Palestinian refugee camp and
fedayeen staging area.
Damascus apparently is continuing
to withdraw Syrian-controlled Pal-
estine Liberation Army forces from
Lebanon because they have become
increasingly ineffective and unre-
liable. Some PLA units in the
Tripoli area evidently have re-
sisted the withdrawal effort.
--continued
2
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36
Mediterranean
Sea
LEB NON
BEIRUT
ISRAE gjrits
VAr
Tel Aviv- 9bra?
Yafelt\V`440
f**
fr
j
DAMASCUS
GOLAN
HEIGHTS
)6
40 44
Dayr az Zavir
SYRIA
SAUDI ARABIA
40
100 miles
100 Kilometers
30-
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IRAQ-SYRIA: Baghdad's
shrill anti-Syria propa-
ganda continued yester-
day, but there are signs
that Iraqi leaders be-
lieve the massing of
their forces on the bor-
der has already achieved
their purpose of embar-
rassing Damascus.
We have not detectd
any Iraqi troop move-
ments since Saturday.
Christian forces are taking advan-
tage of the Syrian drive to mount
an effort to retake key towns that
they lost in March. The Christians
attacked Palestinian-leftist posi-
tions north of Zahlah, where the
latter have made their deepest pen-
etration of the traditional Chris-
tian area. Clashes also occured
in Tripoli, the Beirut area, and
the mountains east of the capital.
Iraqi leaders' stated willingness
to view their military moves as
"training" suggests that they may
now be taking steps to prevent
the situation from deteriorating
into a military conflict. Iraqi
chief Saddam Husayn probably is
aware of the risks of a military
foray into Syria. He undoubtedly
realizes that such a move would
prompt immediate Syrian air at-
tacks against vulnerable Iraqi sup-
ply lines.
Saddam Husayn also may well be
aware of Jordan's commitment to
assist Syria. In addition, the
Saudi Arabians are putting pres-
sure on Baghdad to refrain from
going into Syria.
Despite these considerations, the
Iraqis apparently hope that their
posturing along the border will
ease Syrian pressure in Lebanon
and will encourage Syrian Presi-
dent Asad's domestic opponents to
move against him. It may thus be
some time before the Iraqis pull
back from the Syrian border.
We now count some 30,000 Iraqi
troops near the Syrian border, with
additional support units en route.
At least two of Iraq's three
armored divisions are close to the
--continued
3
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Syria continues to move
troops off the Golan
Heights, apparently to
strengthen its positions
in eastern Syria near
the Iraqi border.
border, along with major elements
of the other armored division and
units of Iraq's five infantry di-
visions.
One of the armored divisions and
parts of an infantry division are
near the Iraqi-Jordanian-Syrian
border. Baghdad also has at least
an armored division, an air defense
brigade, and some support units
along the Euphrates River.
Iraqi fighter aircraft now based
in the west are conducting recon-
naissance missions along the Syr-
ian and Jordanian borders. All
Iraqi air bases have been placed
on increased alert.
On Sunday the US defense attache
in Damascus saw an estimated bri-
gade-size unit of tanks, artillery,
and armored personnel carriers
heading north through Damascus.
The equivalent of between one and
two Syrian divisions has been sent
to the Iraqi border within the past
four days. We believe that the
force consists of individual units-
from several divisions. Damascus
apparently has chosen this course
to try to preserve the effective-
ness of its ground forces opposite
Israel on the Heights.
Damascus also has deployed an SA-6
surface-to-air missile brigade to
Dayr az Zawr near the border, as
well as some fighter and reconnais-
sance aircraft to bases in eastern
Syria.
Syrian officials still do not seem
unduly alarmed at the possibility
of a military confrontation with
Iraq. President Asad so far is
planning to depart on schedule on
Thursday on his visit to France
and Eastern Europe.
--continued
4
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A ILANT/C
OCEAN
AUSTRIA HUN- G^ ARY
FRANCE
USSR '
ROMANIA
BLACK SEA
BULGARIA
Bosporus
_
cf, Balearic Islands
Sardinia
TY//F/HEN/AN SEA
GIBRAL AR
MOROCCO
ALGERIA
O 250 Miles
O 250 Kilometers
0 Malta
TUNISIA
IONIAN SEA
AEGEAN
d.E .
SEA
,
Dardanelles
TURKEY
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
LIBYA
- --"-----.
?------------_,_
EGYPT
CVPRUe
Beirut
LEBANON
ISRAE
SYRIA
JORDAN
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USSR: The Soviets may
be delaying a reduction
in the size of their
Mediterranean fleet be-
cause of the Lebanese
crisis and the movement
of some US naval ships
to the eastern Mediter-
ranean.
There are still about 70 Soviet
naval units--15 more than normal--
in the Mediterranean.
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Other types of Soviet reaction to
the arrival on Sunday of a US am-
phibious force southeast of Crete
have been routine. A Soviet frig-
ate is continuing to monitor the
group. The US carrier America,
which has been operating in the
area for some time, also remains
under surveillance.
Two small Soviet warships in the
Strait of Sicily may be waiting
for indications of an eastern move-
ment by another US carrier in the
Mediterranean--the Saratoga, which
left Cannes, France, yesterday.
--continued
5
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CHINA: Chairman Mao's
health apparently has
deteriorated to the
point where he may no
longer see foreign
visitors.
ETHIOPIA: The Ethio-
pian government report-
edly has ordered the
withdrawal of the armed
peasant units that were
to have been used
against insurgents in
Eritrea Province.
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Since March, Mao's meet-
ings with foreigners have been
limited to 15 or 20 minutes.
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Political infighting within the
divided leadership is almost cer-
tain to intensify in the coming
months, especially if--as could
well be the case--Mao himself, was
not able to function in a decision-
making role.
Both sides in the current politi-
cal campaign, which has been mark-
ing time in recent weeks, probably
will try to claim Mao's support.
In this case, access to the Chair-
man becomes increasingly important.
The cancellation of the planned
operation comes amid signs that
the ruling military council has
had some success in establishing
contact with the Eritrean guerril-
las. A committee of traditional
provincial leaders--formed in May
at the council's request to act as
intermediary between Addis Ababa
and the guerrillas--met last week
with representatives of the Popu-
lar Liberation Forces.
--continued
6
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The PLF representatives, although
reportedly encouraged by govern-
ment proposals to grant Eritrea a
measure of autonomy, are unlikely
to begin direct talks until the
council defines more precisely the
degree of self-government it is
willing to grant.
The PLF representatives also in-
sisted that discussions would have
to include the rival rebel faction--
the Eritrean Liberation Front.
This is the first evidence that
the two groups are attempting to
work together in dealing with the
government. Divisions within the
rebel movement may still hinder
peace negotiations.
--continued
7
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0 Taiwan
Strait
Gulf of Tonkin
olVIAA0
(PORT.)
0 Miles 200
0 Kilometers 200
HONG KONG
(U.K.)
PARACEL ISLANDS
.->
SOUTH
CHINA
SEA
SPRATLY ISLANDS
BRUNEI
(U.K.)
0
E
INDONESIA
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China yesterday took
formal note of Philip-
pine-sponsored oil ex-
ploration in the Spratly
Islands.
The EC foreign ministers
in Luxembourg last week-
end failed to agree on
EC representation at
this month's economic
summit in Puerto Rico.
NOTES
In a statement reiterating China's
long-standing claim to the South
China Sea island group, the Foreign
Ministry said that Peking views
the dispatch of foreign troops to
the Spratlys or prospecting and
exploiting petroleum and other re-
sources as "an encroachment on
China's territorial sovereignty."
The Chinese pronouncement appears
to be essentially a statement of
principle. It may, in fact, be di-
rected primarily at the Vietnamese,
who earlier this year publicized
a rotation of Vietnamese units oc-
cupying some of the islands. The
Vietnamese issued a protest of
their own on June 6, and also re-
iterated their own claim to the
Spratlys.
They did clear away some of the
bad feeling caused when the larger
members failed to consult the
other EC governments about going
to the summit. The odds now fa-
vor an EC bid for attendance at
Puerto Rico by Luxembourg Prime
Minister Thorn--currently the EC
President--and possibly EC Com-
mission President Ortoli. Den-
mark was the only holdout on this
arrangement but seems likely to
agree tomorrow.
--continued
8
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The EC-Portuguese agree-
ment, negotiated last
week, provides Lisbon
long-term financial as-
sistance and trade con-
cessions and serves to
reinforce Portugal's
turn toward Western
Europe.
The EC will provide Lisbon with
about $220 million in loans over
five years. These funds will be
available in January 1978--when
an earlier protocol expires that
provided about $175 million. EC
tariffs on industrial imports from
Portugal will be eliminated in
July, and benefits for Portuguese
workers residing in the EC were
increased substantially.
Portuguese Socialist leaders have
stated they may apply for full mem-
bership in the Community when they
form a new government next month;
they assume a prolonged transition
period toward EC membership will
be necessary.
9
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Top Secret
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