THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 14 JUNE 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015135
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: June 14, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
June 14, 1976
2
UpSecret 25X1
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 513(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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June 14, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon-Syria: Syria shows no sign of easing its military pres-
sure on the Palestinian and Lebanese leftists, despite its
agreement in principle to a withdrawal plan worked out by
Libyan Prime Minister Jallud. (Page 1)
Arab League Secretary Riyad continues to play out the pan-
Arab mediation charade. (Page 1)
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(Page 2) 25X1
Syria-Iraq: The Syrian Baath Party newspaper published Damascus'
version of the proposed political agreement Syria has been
negotiating with Libya, Algeria, and Iraq. (Page 2)
Damascus will attempt to continue its talks with the Lib-
yans in the hope that it can win some financial assistance.
(Page 3)
Major elements of at least five Iraqi divisions have notAJ
moved into the border region. (Page 3)
Rhodesia: Government forces have again attacked guerrillas
across the border in Mozambique. (Page 4)
Notes: France-FTAI; India-USSR; Egypt-Syria (Pages 5 and 6)
At Annex we present the key points of an interagency intelligence
memorandum on communist military assistance to the Rhodesian
insurgent groups and their supporters in Tanzania and Mozam-
bique.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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MEDITERRANEAN
SEA
KILOMETERS 20
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LEBANON-SYRIA: Syria
shows no sign of easing
its military pressure
on the Palestinian and
Lebanese leftists, de-
spite its agreement
in principle on Satur-
day to a withdrawal
plan worked out by Lib-
yan Prime Minister
Jallud. The Syrians
apparently are playing
along with the Jallud
effort to gain time to
resupply their forces
in the Beirut area.
Arab League Secretary
Riyad continues to play
out the pan-Arab media-
tion charade. Riyad
has admitted, however,
that no action has been
taken to determine even
the size of an Arab
peace-keeping force.
Riyad also stipulated
that no Arab force would
be allowed to enter Leb-
anon without the ap-
proval of the Lebanese,
president and until
there was an effective
cease-fire.
The Jallud plan calls for total
Syrian withdrawal within 10 days
and, as a first step, Syria's agree-
ment to lift its siege of Beirut.
Some Syrian and Saiga forces were
pulled out of the city on Saturday,
but these were regrouped around
the Beirut airport. The city re-
mains under effective Syrian siege.
No major Syrian withdrawals oc-
curred elsewhere, and Syrian forces
stepped up their attacks in the
mountains east of Beirut and in the
vicinity of Rashayya, where they
overran two fedayeen camps used
for staging raids on Israel. Syr-
ian troops were also fighting in
the town of Rashavva yesterday.
the Syrians
are continuing to consolidate 25X1
their control in the Bekaa Valley
by arresting both Palestinian and
Lebanese Arab Army elements and
transporting them to Damascus.
The Syrian navy apparently has re-
sumed searching ships off the Leb-
anese coast.
25X1
Both conditions are tantamount to
admitting that the Arab League
can do nothing but allow Syria a
free hand in Lebanon. Lebanese
President Franjiyah has repeatedly
denounced the Arab League effort,
and president-elect Sarkis has no
authority to call in the force.
--continued
1
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no
Libyan, Algerian, or
Sudanese peace-keeping
contingents have en-
tered Lebanon.
SYRIA-IRAQ: The Syrian
Baath Party newspaper
yesterday published Da-
mascus' version of the
proposed political
agreement Syria has
been negotiating for a
month with Libya, Al-
geria, and Iraq. The
disclosure was intended
to counter Iraq's charge
on Friday that Damascus
has reneged on a commit-
ment to allow Iraqi
forces to enter Syria.
25X1
25X1
25X1
Syria's account of the agreement
makes clear that Damascus told Lib-
yan leaders that Syria would under
certain conditions accept Iraqi
forces on Syrian territory and de-
clare Syria's "noncommitment" to
two UN Security Council resolutions
that are the basis for the Geneva
Middle East peace talks. The Syr-
ian statement also makes clear,
however, what the Libyan intermedi-
aries probably did not tell Bagh-
dad: that Damascus was demanding
prior political coordination, fi-
nancial support, and a unified
military command to include all
four states.
According to the Syrian account,
even these preliminary steps would
be implemented only after they had
been considered and approved by a
joint political-military-economic
committee that would meet in Trip-
oli, endorsed at a four-party sum-
mit conference of the states in-
volved, and presented to a summit
conference of all Arab heads of
state.
Damascus obviously hoped to elicit
immediate and badly needed politi-
cal and economic support from the
radical Arabs, but at the same
time avoid making any real conces-
sions. Syria's conditions would
have taken years to implement even
if Damascus intended to follow
--continued
2
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77,1 T) m TI T) Cf T Tt r' 7t T FT" fl ATI V
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Damascus will attempt
to continue its talks
with the Libyans in the
hope that it can still
win some financial as-
sistance and protect
against the possibility
that Tripoli or Algiers
might adopt a pro-Pales-
tinian stand in the Leb-
anese negotiations.
indi-
cate that major elements
of at least five Iraqi
divisions, in addition
to a surface-to-air
missile brigade, have
now moved into the bor-
der region. We do not
yet know the actual
size of the Iraqi force,
but it probably totals
at least 20,000 to
30,000 men.
through. Given its current politi-
cal and security interests, Syria
is not prepared either to allow
Iraqi forces to enter Syria or to
reject the two UN resolutions.
Unlike the Libyans, the Iraqis ap-
pear to be convinced that Syria
will make no concessions, and Bagh-
dad is intensifying its propaganda
attacks on Damascus. Iraq is con-
demning Syria for backing out of
its agreement with the radical Arab
states and for abandoning the
struggle against Israel to attack
the Palestinians.
Iraqi officials insist, however,
that if Syria does not give ap-
proval for Iraq's forces to enter
Syria, Baghdad will consider the
current buildup a training maneu-
ver and will later return the
units to their permanent locations.
The Iraqis' equivocal statements
tend to confirm that Baghdad has
massed its forces in the border
area primarily to force Syria into
withdrawing its troops from Lebanon.
25X1
In response to the Iraqi moves,
Syrians apparently have sent at
least two brigades--one of them
armored--an SA-6 missile unit, and
some aircraft to the border area.
The aircraft have already begun to
fly reconnaissance missions along 25X1
the border.
25X1
--continued
3
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Wong
Lusaka
Zambezi
Malawi
Zambia
Southwest
Africa Miami I
Lake
ariba
/i
SALISBURY\
Macheke
OPE TIO
?
Umta
THRA ER
Mozambi ? ue
Bulaway
Mozambique
Espungabera
Channel
Botswana
Road
Railroad
0
559903 6-76 CIA
?????..
200 MILES
200 KILOMETERS
/1
South frica
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T;V17) 'TETE' D1) L' C TT1E' N1171 111T T
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RHODESIA: Government
forces have again at-
tacked guerrillas
across the border in
Mozambique.
The US defense attache in Amman
reports that Jordanian aircraft
are flying daily reconnaissance
missions over southwestern Iraq.
A government statement issued over
the weekend provided no details,
but the Salisbury press reports
that the air force attacked the
Mozambican border town of Espun-
gabera on Thursday. The govern-
ment acted after mortar and rocket
fire hit a tea plantation near the
border in southeastern Rhodesia.
Both the air force and Rhodesian
irregular force units have occa-
sionally crossed into Mozambique
to attack guerrillas and Mozam-
bican forces stationed with them
in the border area.
Most of the new government troops
mobilized in recent weeks have
been sent to the southernmost of
three operational areas. Officials
hope to "clean up" the southern
zone first and then move additional
forces into the central sector.
Small insurgent groups are active
in widely scattered areas of east-
ern Rhodesia. One group reportedly
clashed with security forces over
the weekend at Macheke, 100 kilo-
meters (60 miles) from Salisbury.
--continued
4
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77/-1 Ti TI Tr' TI Tr' 0 Tr% T77\ TT T T
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France has reached
agreement on government
reorganization with the
three principal politi-
cal groups in the French
Territory of the Afars
and the Issas. Paris
hopes this will lead to
formation of a broadly-
based government better
able to resist Somali
efforts to annex the
territory.
Indian Prime Minister
Indira Gandhi's six-
day trip to the USSR,
which ended yesterday,
essentially demonstrated
the importance both
countries attach to con-
tinuing close ties.
NOTES
The agreement, reached after two
weeks of talks in Paris, is de-
signed to give a predominant po-
litical role to the Issas and
greater representation to other
ethnic Somali groups. The French
are gambling that under such an
arrangement, the Issas would be
less likely to seek aid from Soma-
lia than if their present limited
role were to continue. As pres-
ently administered, the Afars--
who constitute only a minority of
the population--dominate territo-
rial politics.
The newly agreed arrangement will
probably ease political unrest
temporarily but is unlikely to en-
sure a peaceful transition to in-
dependence. Somali President Siad
will doubtless continue subversive
efforts to incorporate FTAI into
a "greater Somalia." Ethiopia,
for its part, will see the Paris
agreement as paving the way for
Somali domination of the territory
and will probably support the Afars
against the Issas.
The joint declaration issued after
Gandhi's departure mentioned no
new major agreements. Neither was
there any indication as to whether
Gandhi obtained satisfaction on
India's complaints arising from
economic and military assistance
arrangements with the Soviet Union.
--continued
5
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The reconciliation meet-
ing between the prime
ministers of Egypt and
Syria has been postponed
until June 23 in Riyadh,
reportedly at Cairo's
request.
The Egyptians reportedly wanted
the delay to allow a clear deter-
mination of whether Damascus will
implement the recent Arab League
resolutions on Lebanon. We see
no evidence that President Asad
will, as Cairo apparently believes,
drop his demand to discuss the
Sinai accord at the meeting. Since
Asad is unlikely to accept rap-
prochement on Egyptian terms, the
reconciliation meeting may well be
delayed again.
--continued
6
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Cameroon
Malebo
t/1)
Equtolial
Guirlea
*Libreville
?,
Yaounde
Gabon
Cabindtit
Central African Republic
Bang 11 I.
Sudan Ethiopia
Uganda
Kampala*
tako
Victoria
*Nairobi
Brazzaville
Buju
Bu
undl
Kinshasa
Tanzania
Lake
Tanganyika
Luanda
Lake
Nyasa
Dar es
Salaam
Zambia
Lusaka*
South-West Africa
(Namibia)
Walvis Bay
(S. AO
At
Ocean
*Windhoek
Botswana
South
Africa
*Pretoria
Swazila
Os
rstho
*Ma-puto
bane
'clue
In
Ocean
500 MILES
0 500 KILOMETERS
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COMMUNIST MILITARY AID TO TANZANIA, MOZAMBIQUE,
AND THE RHODESIAN INSURGENTS
We present below the key points of an interagency in- 25X1
telligence memorandum designed to establish a base
for assessing the extent of communist military assis-
tance to the Rhodesian insurgent groups and their sup-
porters in Tanzania and Mozambique.(
//the totals used in this
memorandum should be viewed as orders of magnitude.
We believe that they are conservative in nature.
Communist military assistance to the Rhodesian insurgents has
been channeled through Tanzania and Mozambique, where Peking and
Moscow have provided substantial military aid over the past de-
cade.
--There are an estimated 11,500 insurgents--3,500 of whom
are trained. At present, the military equipment require-
ments of the insurgents are modest and could easily go un-
detected among about 8,200 tons of military equipment es-
timated to have been sent to Tanzania and Mozambique since
January 1975.
--The insurgents do not have heavy equipment such as tanks,
armored personnel carriers, or aircraft, although they do
have recoilless rifles, rocket and grenade launchers, mor-
tars, small caliber artillery, trucks, sapper and communi-
cations equipment, and possibly some SA-7 missiles.
Since January 1975, we have identified about 2,200 tons of Chi-
nese military equipment arriving in Tanzania, including small
25X1
arms and ammunition, rockets, automatic rifles, and armored cars.
During this same period we have identified only one Chinese ship,
carrying military equipment, going directly to Mozam-
bique. In addition, Chinese military equipment has sometimes
been unloaded at Dar es Salaam and then sent to Mozambique)
25X1
From January 1975 through April 1976, Soviet military shipments
to Tanzania totaled as much as 6,000 tons and included small
amounts of ammunition, hand grenades, shotguns, trucks, rockets,
armored vehicles, and spare parts for helicopters. In 1975, we
identified $12 million worth of Soviet military equipment sent
to Mozambique, including air defense artillery, small arms and
ammunition, and support equipment. In addition, several Soviet
ships suspected of carrying military equipment called in Mozam-
bique, but we have no evidence on the cargoes.
--continued
Al
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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A
X
-
T2TD DD L'C TTIVNT'T nur
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In recent years we have detected no movement of military equip-
ment from Cuba to Tanzania or Mozambique.
--Military equipment and/or troops could be sent quickly to
Mozambique by using Cuban ships which are in Angolan waters.
Such movement would be hard to detect, and it is possible
that we would not be able to provide complete and timely in-
formation on the movement.
We have no evidence that the Communist countries are moving mili-
tary materiel to Tanzania or Mozambique by air.
--The chances are good that any long-range airlift opera-
tions would be detected, but short-range regional shuttle
operations would be very difficult to monitor.
A2
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Top Secret
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