THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 11 MAY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015105
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 11, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010036-0 (
The President's Daily Brief
May 11, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I 1652
exemption category SB( I ),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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May 11, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Christian forces continue to press their offensive in
the mountains east of Beirut. (Page 1)
Syria: Damascus probably does not plan to provoke a confronta-
tion with Israel by letting the UN observer force mandate
lapse after May 30. (Page 2)
Vietnam-China: Relations between Hanoi and Peking appear to have
declined further. (Page 2)
USSR: Relations between Soviet party secretary Ponomarev and For-
eign Minister Gromyko have improved markedly in recent months.
(Page 3)
Israel: The cabinet's decision barring the establishment of a
permanent Jewish settlement in Samaria on the West Bank
leaves unresolved the issue of finding an alternative govern-
ment-approved site for the settlers. (Page 4)
Notes: USSR; Egypt-Syria (Page 5)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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DAMASCUS
IA
/\ I Goba
Heigh
/
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559742 5-76
I AEL
\._
20
Miles
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LEBANON: Christian
forces continue to
press their offensive
in the mountains east
of Beirut, apparently
hoping to recapture a
number of villages and
improve their bargain-
ing position in future
peace talks.
With neither side willing or able
to stop the fighting, it could
spread, jeopardizing the Chris-
tians' political victory over Mus-
lim leftists in the presidential
election last weekend. The great-
est danger in the current situation
is that Fatah commandos based at
Aynturah will be drawn into the
battle.
President-elect Ilyas Sarkis is
reportedly working with the tri-
partite truce committee and Yasir
Arafat to arrange a new cease-fire
in the mountain area. Sarkis will
meet with Christian leaders today
or tomorrow; his ability to per-
suade them to accept a new truce
will be the first major test of
his leadership.
Leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt is-
sued a statement yesterday in which
he toned down his earlier sharp
warnings about the consequences of
electing Sarkis. Sarkis' efforts
to arrange a meeting with him have
been unsuccessful. Jumblatt prob-
ably will wait until he can more
accurately determine the political
repercussions of the fighting be-
fore deciding on a meeting with
Sarkis.
We have no further information on
the movement of an unidentified
battalion of Syrian troops toward
Beirut that we reported on yester-
day. According to an intercepted
message, Damascus has sent addi-
tional troops to the Tripoli area,
where Iraqi-sponsored fedayeen ap-
parently have sparked new fighting.
Syria has had a large contingent
of regular forces in Tripoli since
March.
1
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SYRIA: Syria has not
yet indicated what it
intends to do about the
mandate of the UN ob-
server force on the
Golan Heights, but ten-
tative indications are
that Damascus does not
plan to provoke a con-
frontation with Israel
by letting the mandate,
which expires May 30,
lapse.
VIETNAM-CHINA: Rela-
tions between Hanoi and
Peking appear to have
declined further.
The Syrians, absorbed in the Leba-
nese crisis, almost certainly are
still working on their strategy
for handling the mandate issue.
They probably will resort to their
usual last-minute bargaining tac-
tics and insist on some kind of
quid pro quo to justify another
extension. This time Damascus
evidently wants the renewal linked
to Security Council action on Pal-
estinian rights. The Palestine
committee's report is due sometime25X1
this month.
An Egyptian weekly magazine has
asserted that the Syrians have al-
ready decided to renew the mandate,
but there has been no reporting
that would confirm the claim.
25X1
Rumors of trou-
ble along the border have circu-
lated in the past, but neither
Hanoi nor Peking has publicized
border problems.
2
--continued
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USSR: Relations be-
tween Soviet party sec-
retary Ponomarev and
Foreign Minister Gromyko
have improved markedly
in recent months/
because of Pono-
marev's acceptance of
Gromyko's larger role
in foreign policy. The
slower pace of US-Soviet
relations has probably
also contributed to a
-lessening of strains.
/diff
over the
nomic aid
viously h
tion with
sistance
the Chine
pressure
viet poli
tional lo
the dispu
Spratly i
iculties have developed
extent of Chinese eco-
to Vietnam. Hanoi pre-
as expressed dissatisfac-
the level of Chinese as-
and has complained that
se are applying economic
to alter Hanoi's pro-So-
cy positions. An addi-
ng-standing conflict is
te over the Paracel and
slands.
Underlying these disagreements are
the more fundamental competition
between the two states for influ-
ence in Southeast Asia and Hanoi's
increasingly warm relations with
Moscow.
Ponomarev, who handles relations
with non-ruliny Communist parties
and third-world movements, report-
edly is no longer openly clashing
with Gromyko. Perhaps as a conse-
quence, Ponomarev's international
department in the Central Commit-
tee is described as working more
congenially with the Foreign Min-
istry.
25X1
25X1
Ponomarev may be finding less to
criticize in the conduct of for-
eign policy and could be preoc-
cupied with international Commu-
nist affairs. In addition, the
lost momentum in the policy of
"detente," which is associated
with Gromyko, may have made him
feel somewhat vulnerable. Gromyko
may be trying to avoid disagree,
ments with colleagues in the P&-r.,1-
buro.
3
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ISRAEL: The Israeli
cabinet's decision on
Sunday barring the es-
tablishment of a perma-
nent Jewish settlement
in Samaria on the West
Bank leaves unresolved
the explosive issue of
finding an alternative
government-approved
site for the settlers.
The extremist religious group
which sponsors these settlers yes-
terday launched what may be the
first of a series of mass demon-
strations protesting the cabinet's
decision and demanding that the
government support the right of
Jews to settle anywhere on the
West Bank.
The ruling coalition's left-wing
Mapam Party is likely to organize
counter-demonstrations. It favors
limiting settlements to strategi-
cally important locations in order
to leave open the option of terri-
torial compromise in peace negotia-
tions with the Arabs.
4
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Soviet Jewish emigra-
tion declined in April
to its lowest monthly
rate for 1976, although
the average for the
first four months is
still slightly ahead
of last year's pace.
Egyptian Prime Minister
Salim and Syrian Prime
Minister Ayyubi will
meet in Riyadh next
week under Saudi and
Kuwaiti auspices in an
attempt to ease the
severe strain that has
characterized Syrian-
Egyptian relations
since the signing of
the second Sinai agree-
ment last September.
NOTES
The downturn in April suggests
that the modest increase in exit
permits in February and March was
intended to reduce the risk of em-
barrassment during the 25th party
congress rather than to signal a
more liberal emigration policy.
This will be the first high-level
Syrian-Egyptian contact since last
summer. The meeting could help
ease tensions, but it will take
more than a single meeting by two
essentially powerless prime minis-
ters to resolve the deep-seated
differences between Damascus and
Cairo.
5
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Top Secret
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