THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 7 APRIL 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015076
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: April 7, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
April 7, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category, 513(1),(2),(3)
declassified on(); on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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A VAX at .1 AL A I tL LI A A?, L11 ? A ?_.? A. ?
Lebanon:
April 7, 1976
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Socialist leader Kamal Jumblatt
showing some
involved in the politi-
flexibility on issues
cal crisis. (Page 1)
USSR: Arbatov's article in Pravda last week blames
Washington for current bilateral difficulties
and is specifically critical of your adminis-
tration. (Page 3)
China: The offensive against policies associated
with Vice Premier Teng Hsiao-ping includes
attacks on his program for modernizing the
military. (Page 4)
Note: OPEC (Page 6)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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Mediterranean Sea
Tel Aviv-Yafo
Gaza
GAZA STRIP
559572 4-76
20 ap Statute Miles
lo 40 Kilometers
Saudi
Arabia
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LEBANON
Jumblatt
leftist coalition yesterday
issued a statement expressing satisfaction with the
current truce and appreciation for the efforts of
"the various quarters" to resolve the political
crisis.
The leftists also indicated their qualified
acceptance of the Syrian mediation effort and a
willingness to allow forces of the Syrian-controlled
Palestine Liberation Army to assist in providing
security so that parliament can meet. The speaker
of parliament announced yesterday that all sides
have agreed to meet on Saturday in a neutral zone
of Beirut. They will discuss the constitutional
amendment allowing for the early replacement of
Franjiyah.
The US embassy reports that Jumblatt has pri-
vately indicated his willingness to extend the po-
litical settlement process beyond the ten-day truce
period, provided substantial progress is achieved
in the meantime. Presumably, Jumblatt would accept
amendment of the constitution as substantial prog-
ress and would allow election of a new president
to be delayed until next week.
Jumblatt's more cooperative stand--which he
could reverse at any time--may result from fear
that Syria is prepared to use whatever force is
necessary to forestall a leftist effort to spark
another round of heavy fighting.
(continued)
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has uncon-
firmed information that a Syrian armored brigade
moved into the northernmost region of Lebanon yes-
terday. The report came from a contact in Lebanon's
internal security force. We have no information to
confirm this report, but a Syrian armored brigade
stationed at Hamah, some 40 miles northeast of the
border, could be moved quickly into Lebanon.
Intercepts show that the Syrian naval blockade
of Lebanese ports remained in effect yesterday.
Syrian ships, which may now be based at Tripoli,
are patrolling most of the Lebanese coast.
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A. JR. IL -A. -I. AL At -a .?-? .t. ? .E. ?
USSR
Georgy Arbatov's article in Pravda
last week blames Washington for current
bilateral difficulties and is specifi-
cally critical of your administration.
The article has been touted privately
by several Soviets as a very important
statement.
Arbatov's analysis of the recent course of
US-Soviet relations is familiar fare. He credits
a changing correlation of world forces with prompt-
ing favorable changes in US foreign policy. He
notes signs of backsliding in Washington, however,
under the pressures generated by US economic and
political problems and the realities of the US
presidential campaign. In undisguised criticism
of you, Arbatov attacks the concept of "peace
through strength" as reminiscent of cold war atti-
tudes. He warns that concessions made during a
political campaign may persist beyond the election,
"sometimes creating serious difficulties."
Arbatov analyzes recent US foreign policy
"defeats" (he mentions Southeast Asia, Portugal,
"miscalculations in the Eastern Mediterranean," and
Angola) as being the result of wrong-headed poli-
cies in Washington, rather than of any communist
intrigues.
Referring to the inevitability of occasional
reverses for both superpowers, Arbatov argues that
"detente" must not be made a scapegoat. He clearly
does not want current problems between the US and
the USSR to jeopardize the gains made in arms con-
trol. His message seems to be that progress can
still be made despite other setbacks to the rela-
tionship.
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CHINA
The offensive against policies asso-
ciated with Vice Premier Teng Hsiao-ping
includes attacks on his program for mod-
ernizing the military. The radicals have
avoided press discussion of this sensi-
tive matter, and have generally confined
their attacks on military policy to wall
posters. They are apparently trying to
capitalize on the disaffection among mil-
itary figures that was created by Teng's
policies.
At issue is a directive approved last summer
that calls for the upgrading of China's conventional
forces. The posters charge that the directive over-
emphasizes military proficiency, and that Teng tried
to reduce the political influence of important pro-
vincial military figures.
Indeed, Teng has worked hard over the past
three years to remove the armed forces, particularly
the military region commanders, from civilian poli-
tics and to curb their political power. At the
same time, Teng has "rehabilitated" and promoted
to important positions in Peking a number of mili-
tary men whose advocacy of modernization of China's
military establishment, in many cases, led to their
purge early in the Cultural Revolution. Regional
commanders could have seen these rehabilitations as
threatening their own influence within the army.
One of the most significant charges against
Teng, aside from the modernization issue, is that
he monopolized control of the armed forces. This
seems to be an attempt to win over those who op-
posed his appointment as armed forces chief of staff;
he is the first civilian ever named to this post.
Although the evidence is sparse, the criticisms
thus far do not seem to have had much impact. Im-
portant military figures, particularly in the prov-
inces, have shown little enthusiasm for the cam-
paign against Teng. Most of the officer corps fa-
vors Teng's efforts to upgrade the armed forces'
fighting capability. Others may not be completely
(continued)
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satisfied with Teng, but in the long run are likely
to find in the radicals a less agreeable alternative.
As for those military officers whose sympathies lie
with the radicals, their views probably parallel the
wall poster criticism; otherwise, they seem to be
keeping their heads down.
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NOTE
OPEC investment in the US increased $6.4 bil-
lion in 1975, bringing the total to nearly $20 bil-
lion at the end of the year. The US part of OPEC
foreign investment was at least 25 percent, compared
with 20 percent in 1974.
Purchases of corporate and medium- and long-
term government securities accounted for most of
the new holdings. Bank deposits and holdings of
short-term government securities--at one time the
major share of OPEC investment--increased only
slightly. The shift toward less liquid assets in
the US portfolio reflects the growing predominance
of Persian Gulf oil producers, whose wealth permits
investment in longer-term assets, increased inves-
tor confidence in the US economy, and declining
short-term interest rates. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
and the United Arab Emirates accounted for over 65
percent of OPEC's investment in the US at the end
of 1975, compared with less than 35 percent a year
earlier.
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Top Secret
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