THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 7 APRIL 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015075
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: April 7, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010006-3
The President's Daily Brief
April 7, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category.58( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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Lebanon:
April 7, 1976
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Table of Contents
USSR: Georgy Arbatov's article in Pravda last week blames Wash-
ington for current bilateral difficulties and is specifically
critical of your administration. (Page 2)
China: The offensive against policies associated with Vice Pre-
mier Teng Hsiao-ping includes attacks on his program for
modernizing the military. (Page 3)
OPEC: Investment by OPEC in the US increased $6.4 billion in
1975. (Page 4)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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Latakia
Hamah
Tartus
Syria
Damascus
Mediterranean Sea
Tel Aviv-Yafo
Gaza
GAZA STRIP
SINAq*
< k
559572 4-76
Jordan
20 ao Statute Miles
dO 40 Kilometers
Saudi
Arabia
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LEBANON:
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Although Jumblatt has not indi-
cated this position publicly, he
is showing some flexibility on
related issues. His leftist coa-
lition yesterday issued a state-
ment expressing satisfaction with
the current truce and appreciation
for the efforts of the "various
quarters" to resolve the politi-
cal crisis.
The leftists also indicated their
qualified acceptance of the Syrian
mediation effort and a willingness
to allow forces of the Syrian-
controlled Palestine Liberation
Army to assist in providing secu-
rity for the meeting of parliament.
The speaker of parliament announced
yesterday that all sides have
agreed to meet on Saturday in a
neutral zone of Beirut to discuss
the early replacement of Franji-
yah.
The US embassy reports that Jum-
blatt has privately indicated his
willingness to extend the politi-
cal settlement process beyond the
ten-day truce period, provided
substantial progress is achieved
in the meantime. Presumably, Jum-
blatt would accept amendment of
the constitution as substantial
progress and would allow election
of a new president to be delayed
until next week.
Jumblatt's more cooperative stand--
which he could reverse at any time--
may be the result of a fear that
Syria is prepared to use whatever
force is necessary to forestall a
leftist effort to spark another
round of heavy fighting. Jumblatt
almost certainly is disappointed
at signs that Arafat is again co-
operating with the Syrians and
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--continued
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_ _ _
USSR: Georgy Arbatov's
article in Pravda last
week blames Washington
for current bilateral
difficulties and is
specifically critical
of your administration.
The article has been
touted privately by
several Soviets as a
very important state-
ment.
apprehensive that Fatah forces
would not again provide critical
military support should heavy
fighting resume.
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the Syrian
naval blockade of Lebanese ports
remained in effect yesterday. Syr-
ian ships, which may now be based
at Tripoli, are patrolling most of
the Lebanese coast. 25X1
Arbatov's analysis of the recent
course of US-Soviet relations is
familiar fare. He credits a
changing correlation of world
forces with prompting favorable
changes in US foreign policy. He
notes signs of backsliding in
Washington, however, under the
pressures generated by US economic
and political problems and the
realities of the US presidential
campaign. In undisguised criti-
cism of you, Arbatov attacks the
concept of "peace through strength"
as reminiscent of cold war atti-
tudes. He warns that concessions
made during a political campaign
may persist beyond the election,
"sometimes creating serious dif-
ficulties."
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--continued
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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CHINA: The offensive
against policies asso-
ciated with Vice Premier
Teng Hsiao-ping includes
attacks on his program
for modernizing the
military. The radicals
are apparently trying
to capitalize on the
disaffection among
military figures that
was created by Teng's
policies.
Referring to the inevitability of
occasional reverses for both super-
powers, Arbatov argues that "de-
tente" must not be made a scape-
goat. He clearly does not want
current problems between the US
and the USSR to jeopardize the
gains made in arms control. His
message seems to be that progress
can still be made despite other
setbacks to the relationship.
At issue is a directive approved
last summer that calls for the
upgrading of China's conventional
forces. Wall posters charge that
the directive over-emphasizes mil-
itary proficiency, and that Teng
tried to reduce the political in-
fluence of important provincial
military figures.
Teng has worked hard over the past
three years to remove the armed
forces from civilian politics and
to curb the political power of
specific commanders. At the same
time, he has "rehabilitated" and
promoted military men whose advo-
cacy of modernization of China's
military, in many cases, led to
their purge early in the Cultural
Revolution. Regional commanders
could have seen these rehabilita-
tions as threatening their own in-
fluence within the army.
Aside from the modernization issue,
one of the most significant charges
against Teng is that he monopolized
control of the armed forces. This
seems to be an attempt to win over
those who opposed his appointment
as armed forces chief of staff; he
is the first civilian ever named
to this post.
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--continued
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OPEC: Investment by
OPEC in the US in-
creased $6.4 billion
in 1975, bringing the
total to nearly $20
billion at the end of
the year. The US part
of OPEC foreign invest-
ment was at least 25
percent, compared with
20 percent in 1974.
Although the evidence is sparse,
the criticism thus far doe's not
seem to have had much impact.
Most of the officer corps favors
Teng's efforts to upgrade the
armed forces' fighting capability
and has shown little enthusiasm,
particularly in the provinces, for
the campaign against Teng. As for
those military officers whose sym-
pathies lie with the radicals,
their views probably parallel the
wall poster criticism; otherwise,
they seem to be keeping their
heads down.
Purchases of corporate and medium-
and long-term government securi-
ties accounted for most of the new
holdings. Bank deposits and hold-
ings of short-term government se-
curities--at one time the major
share of OPEC investment--increased
only slightly. The shift toward
less liquid assets in the US port-
folio reflects the growing pre-
dominance of Persian Gulf oil pro-
ducers, whose wealth permits in-
vestment in longer term assets,
increased investor confidence in
the US economy, and declining
short-term interest rates. Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, and the United
Arab Emirates accounted for over
65 percent of OPEC's investment
in the US at the end of 1975, com-
pared with less than 35 percent
a year earlier.
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Top Secret
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