THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 5 APRIL 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015073
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: April 5, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
April 5, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category,. 5B( 11(21(3)
declassified orili on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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April 5, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Fighting has subsided, but politicians
have yet to make any progress toward carrying
out the objectives of the 10-day truce.
(Page 1)
Lebanon:- Radical Muslim and leftist groups are
emerging from the prolonged fighting in Leba-
non with increased popular support, military
strength, and political resolve. (Page 3)
USSR:
(Page 5
Cyprus:
(Page 6)
Note: Thailand (Page 7)
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LEBANON
Beirut remains relatively quiet, and
fighting east of the city has subsided
since the leftists captured the Christian
villages of Aynturah and Al Mutayn on Sat-
urday. Lebanese politicians have yet to
make any progress toward carrying out the
objectives of the 10-day truce.
With only seven days left before the truce ex-
pires, the politicians are wrangling over the pre-
cise wording of a constitutional amendment that is
to pave the way for President Franjiyah's resigna-
tion and the election of his successor. They are
also squabbling over where parliament should meet
and what forces will provide security.
The bickering reflects the inability of the
Lebanese and the Syrians to settle on a successor
to Franjiyah. Syrian President Asad reportedly
still objects to Raymond Edde, the candidate of the
leftists and Yasir Arafat. Leftist leader Jumblatt,
who wants the new president to be obligated to him
rather than to Damascus, remains adamantly opposed
to Ilyas Sarkis--favored by the Syrians and the
Christian Phalanges Party.
In its efforts to prevent a breakdown in the
cease-fire, Damascus is putting pressure on Jumblatt
and Arafat not to resume fighting even if negotia-
tions over Franjiyah's successor should drag on be-
yond the expiration date of the truce.
A Syrian naval blockade of the port of Tripoli
was in effect on Friday and Saturday, apparently in
an attempt to stem the flow of supplies to warring
factions in northern Lebanon.
Saiga forces report-
edly have entered Sidon to prevent arms from reach-
ing other Palestinians and leftist Lebanese in that
area.
(continued)
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LEBANON
Radical Muslim and leftist groups
are emerging from the prolonged fighting
in Lebanon with increased popular sup-
port, military strength, and political
resolve. They have proved that they
can virtually silence old-line Muslim
leaders and, with support from inde-
pendent fedayeen groups, especially
Yasir Arafatts Fatah, can defeat the
major Christian militias. It is con-
ceivable that, in the coming weeks and
months, the leftists will gain the
upper hand.
The extreme left is a collection of fringe
groups with no dominant leader or faction--a fact
that greatly complicates the task of controlling
or even negotiating with it. Kamal Jumblatt comes
closest to being the leader of the leftist-Muslim
coalition. His record of speaking out against the
Christian and older Muslim establishments and his
agitation for minority rights and for economic and
social change have gained him stature among younger
Muslim radicals in many parts of the country. Most
other leftist leaders are locally based and urban.
The rapid ascendancy of the Lebanese left has
triggered intense competition among outsiders for
influence over individual leftist groups. Syria,
its Palestinian client Saiqa, and Fatah have been
the chief patrons of the left. Rivalry between
Syria and Fatah as well as efforts by Libya and
Iraq to supply small arms and money to certain
groups have given major leftist leaders a measure
of independence from any one outside sponsor.
The Egyptians do not have much influence, but
they are trying to thwart Syria. Now that Muslim
leftists have emerged as the principal obstacle to
Syrian mediation, Egypt is increasing its efforts
to assist them.
The leftists are not in a position to dictate
a political settlement in Lebanon, but they will
not accept a refurbished version of the Syrian-
backed reform package worked out in February. They
(continued)
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will insist on concessions, and their strength will
ensure continued de facto partition and will com-
plicate efforts to reconstitute an effective na-
tional security authority.
The Palestinians and Muslim leftists together
now control about two thirds of Lebanon and have
reduced Christian control in Beirut itself. This
means that any new government in Beirut will con-
tinue to be weak and, in effect, will be operating
within a confederation framework.
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USSR
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CYPRUS
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NOTE
Thai Prime Minister Khukrit Pramot lost his
seat in the national assembly in yesterday's elec-
tion, presumably because of the military's dissatis-
faction with the way he handled negotiations on the
presence of US forces.
The process of forming a successor government
may be prolonged. A center-right coalition led by
the Democrat Party, which made a strong showing in
the election, appears to have the best chance. The
leader of the party is Seni Pramot, Khukrit's older
brother, who is backed by influential retired army
commander Krit Siwara.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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Top Secret
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