THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 26 MARCH 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015065
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: March 26, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
March 26. 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 5B( I )A2).(3)
declassified onfti on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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March 26, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Syria yesterday withdrew its mediators
from Lebanon, leaving Muslim and leftist
forces free to pursue their offensive against
the Christians. (Page 1)
OPEC: The OPEC oil ministers will meet in Jakarta
in late May to decide whether to increase
oil prices. (Page 3)
Egypt-USSR: Sadat ignored a letter he received
from Brezhnev in early March that allegedly
promised discussions for new arms agreements
and the reopening of debt negotiations.
(Page 4)
Notes: Iceland-UK; Panama; West Germany - Egypt;
Peru (Pages 5 and 6)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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LEBANON
Damascus yesterday withdrew its
mediators from Lebanon, leaving the way
open for Muslim and leftist forces to
pursue unhindered their offensive against
the Christians. Syrian-controlled Pal-
estinian units and Syrian regular forces
have been ordered to remain in place, but
not to interfere with Muslim and leftist
military operations.
President Asad apparently concluded that only
large-scale Syrian intervention could stop the fight-
ing. This would have risked Israeli counter-action
and would quite likely have been politically unac-
ceptable to the Syrian military and the Baath Party.
Both strongly sympathize with the Lebanese leftists.
Withdrawal of the Syrian mediation team has
set off a wave of panic among the Christians, and
Christian fighters in Beirut are now clearly on the
defensive. Leftist and rebel Muslim army troops
have advanced into the mountains east of the capital
and reportedly are moving steadily on the Christian
strongholds of Brummana and Bayt Miri.
President Franjiyah, who was forced to flee the
presidential palace at Babda yesterday, has set up
temporary headquarters at Zug Mikhail. He met there
yesterday with Christian leaders.
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If the Christians do declare for partition,
the greatest immediate danger would come from any
response to a call they might make for outside help
to protect their truncated state. Concern would be
high throughout the Arab world that Israel might
respond to a Christian call for help.
Leftist military successes have resulted in
part from the increasingly active support leftists
are receiving from the independent fedayeen groups,
particularly Yasir Arafat's Fatah. Arafat recently
formed a loose alliance with Lebanese leftist lead-
ers to refurbish his revolutionary credentials and
to protect Palestinian interests against the rap-
idly growing Syrian influence in Lebanon.
(continued)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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Israeli officials have not reacted publicly to
the latest developments in Lebanon, but Chief of
Staff Gur told an interviewer only a few days ago
that his forces are following developments across
the border very closely, "so as not to act too soon
or too late." Yesterday, Israeli aircraft flew re-
connaissance missions over Lebanon for the second
day in a row.
Israelis supporting intervention argue that
Israel should move quickly to fill the power vacuum
in southern Lebanon before radical Arab forces do,
and that pre-emptive action now would be easier than
dislodging such forces later. They also maintain
that failure to act would be read as a sign of Is-
raeli weakness and that Israel must help Lebanon's
Christians survive.
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OPEC
The OPEC oil ministers will meet in
Jakarta in late May to decide whether to
increase oil prices. Chances are good for
a continuation of the current price freeze
until the end of the year or, at worst, an
increase smaller than last October's rise
of 10 percent. Saudi Arabia, which wants
no price increase, again holds the key.
Events in the oil market in recent weeks have
strengthened the Saudis in dealing with both the
companies and other members of OPEC. The competi-
tive position of Saudi oil has improved, and Saudi
oil is now underpriced with respect to both lighter
and heavier crudes. Their strengthened position
and the preoccupation of the price hawks with other
issues may mean that the Saudis can have their way
without having to expend much political capital.
Riyadh seems to be taking a harder line than
in the past in favor of extending the freeze on
oil prices. Since the last OPEC meeting in Sep-
tember, Oil Minister Yamani has repeatedly stated
that the Saudis will insist on continuing the
price freeze until the end of the year./
It also appears that Saudi Arabia has managed
again to win Algeria's support.
The Shah of Iran is trying to increase Iranian
oil output and guarantee that it will stay high.
He no doubt will push hard at Jakarta for the highest
possible price rise.
At previous meetings of oil ministers over the
past two years, the Iranian delegation has cited
the rise in import costs as one of the main justi-
fications for pushing up oil prices. The fact that
the price of OPEC imports from the industrialized
countries has fallen should strengthen the position
of those opposed to a major price increase.
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EGYPT-USSR
A senior Egyptian official alleges
that Soviet General Secretary Brezhnev
sent President Sadat a Letter promising
to discuss new arms agreements and to
reopen debt negotiations. Sadat re-
ceived this letter a few days before he
made his speech recommending abrogation
of the Soviet-Egyption friendship treaty.
Sadat had told Ambassador EiZts that the
letter refused any further Soviet mili-
tary or economic assistance.
Sadat proceeded with the treaty abrogation
despite the communication from Brezhnev, according
to the official, because he regarded the promised
aid as merely a manipulative effort to keep him
from announcing any anti-Soviet moves in his sched-
uled speech on March 14.
Sadat probably remembered past instances in
which Moscow failed to follow through on conces-
sions promised just before he was to make a major
speech. This occurred last July when the Egyptian
minister of finance was hastily summoned to Moscow
on a promise of progress toward debt renegotiation
a few days before Sadat was to speak publicly. The
minister was kept cooling his heels until after the
address and was then sent home empty-handed.
If the Soviet letter was as conciliatory as
reported, Sadat could be embarrassed if word of
the letter should leak or if the Soviets should
choose to publish it. Publicity would not help
Sadat's efforts to convince the Egyptian military
that all attempts to secure more arms from Moscow
have been fruitless.
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NOTES
Prospects for an Icelandic-UK fishing agree-
ment--which seemed to have improved a few days ago--
have declined once more.
Iceland has refused a British request for clar-
ification of certain issues in the Reykjavik propo-
sal conveyed to the UK last weekend. Foreign Min-
ister Agustsson has now made clear that Iceland's
proposal was put forward on a take-it-or-leave-it
basis and should not be viewed as an opening for
further negotiations. Reykjavik has also demanded
that London drop its opposition to the draft free
trade agreement between the EC and Iceland that
would assure the latter continued access to West
European markets.
Panama's chief negotiator in the canal treaty
talks, Juan Tack, has reportedly resigned.
General Torrijos may have to handle the nego-
tiations even more gingerly than heretofore. Tack
is said to be unhappy with the course of the talks.
If he decides to criticize publicly any of the gov-
ernment's compromise positions, he could force
Torrijos into a more defensive, hard-line negotia-
ting posture.
West Germany plans to provide Egypt
economic aid and trade credit guarantees
visits Bonn next week.
Bonn will provide about $40 million
aid and trade credits of some $52 million
limited
when Sadat
in capital
(continued)
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* * *
Peru
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awns* ?-comorg kormamo- emumme?--
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Top Secret
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