THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 27 JANUARY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015014
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 27, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
January 27, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of EO. 11652
exemption category, 58(1),(2),(3)
declassified onlii on approval or
the Director of Central Intelligence
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January 27, 1976
Table of Contents
Angola: The Popular Movement holds a clear superi-
ority of military power, but we believe it
will fall short of total victory; at least
small-scale insurgent activity will probably
continue. (Page 1)
Israel: We offer our analysis of Israel's economic
performance, in light of its pending aid re-
quests and Prime Minister Rabin's visit.
(Page 3)
Lebanon: Ultraconservative Christian groups have
joined the major Christian parties in approv-
ing in principle the Syrian peace initiative.
(Page 5)
Notes: USSR-Angola; Cuba-Guyana; USSR (media);
USSR (emigration); Panama; Jordan-USSR
(Pages 7, 8, and 9)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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ANGOLA
Following is our analysis of the
present military situation in Angola.
The Popular Movement for the Liberation of
Angola (MPLA), reinforced by about 11,000 Cuban
troops and a continuing flow of Soviet military
equipment, now holds a clear superiority of mili-
tary power in Angola. The MPLA's military leaders
are convinced that they can win a conventional mil-
itary victory over their opponents in the very
near future, perhaps within the next several weeks.
We believe that this outcome is likely, although
it will fall short of a total victory, in that at
least small-scale guerrilla and insurgent activity
will probably continue.
MPLA and Cuban forces have already destroyed
the National Front for the Liberation of Angola
(FNLA) in the north; the Front is not likely to
pose a significant conventional military threat to
the MPLA in the near future, though it may fight
on as a guerrilla movement.
The MPLA side is confident that it can win a
similar victory over the National Union for the
Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) in central
and southern Angola, and the MPLA and Cubans are
now regrouping their forces for a concerted offen-
sive against UNITA. This judgment of the MPLA is
almost certainly correct. Although UNITA can be
expected to put up stiff resistance, it does not
have--without the combat participation and heavy
weapons of South African forces--the ability to
withstand the combined Cuban and MPLA forces.
UNITA's military position has been seriously
undermined by the withdrawal of more than 1,000
South African troops and advisers.)
(continued)
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Given the present situation, the remaining
forces in Angola opposing the MPLA cannot expect
to receive any significant increase in aid--either
materiel or manpower--from Zaire, Zambia, South
Africa, or other nations. These nations are all
in the process of rethinking their policies toward
Angola and related questions. They are in every
case more likely to make an accommodation to what
they see as an emerging new situation in southern
Africa than they are to expand their support to
the UNITA and FNLA in an effort to preserve what
they now think is unpreservable.
In sum, as the situation now stands, there is
little to prevent the MPLA side from winning a con-
ventional military victory, and in fairly short
order. There is every indication that Soviet and
Cuban aid will continue to arrive in Angola in
amounts regarded by Moscow and Havana as necessary
to finish the job quickly.
While the MPLA over the short term probably
cannot totally eliminate guerrilla activity by its
rivals, the MPLA and Cubans will be able to consol-
idate their military position throughout Angola.
They will also succeed in tightening,their adminis-
trative grip on Angola's major urban and economic
centers and gaining control over the Benguela rail-
road. They will, at least initially, leave the
rural population to fend for itself, as the Portu-
guese did before. Finally, they will probably avoid
a direct military confrontation with South Africa by
not challenging, with conventional forces, the South
African forces in the far south of Angola around the
Cunene hydroelectric project.
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ISRAEL
We offer below our analysis of Is-
rael's economic performance, in light
of its pending aid requests and Prime
Minister Rabin's visit.
Israel claims that it will suffer a balance-
of-payments deficit of roughly $600 million this
year, even with continued austerity in the civilian
sector, government budget restraint, and no cut in
the aid package before Congress.
We believe that, following the large deficits
of the past two years, Israel will be on the road
to financial recovery in 1976. Certainly the need
for austerity will remain, but the latest Israeli
figures paint an overly pessimistic picture. In-
deed, if all of the $2.3-billion aid package is
approved and import controls are not relaxed, a
balance-of-payments surplus of about $200 million
will be within reach. Tel Aviv will probably ease
import restrictions if a surplus seems likely.
For the rest of the decade and barring an-
other war, the balance-of-payments situation should
gradually improve, widening the options available
to Israel to deal with its economic problems.
While the availability of foreign exchange will
remain a problem, the stabilization of military
imports and the acceleration of export growth
should allow Israel to loosen its import restric-
tions and still narrow its current-account deficit.
Israel's current economic difficulties have
resulted primarily from sharp increases in the de-
fense burden following the October 1973 war, and
slowing export growth. Defense spending has more
than doubled to an annual rate of $4 billion, and
arms imports have tripled over pre-war levels to
more than $2 billion. To deal with these problems,
the government instituted an austerity program
squeezing the civilian sector.
(continued)
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Despite the austerity program, Israel's cur-
rent-account deficit continued to mount and peaked
at a record $4.1 billion in 1975. Exports, hindered
by sluggish US and European demand, were well below
the 15-20 percent growth rate hoped for at the be-
ginning of the year. Capital movement into the
country rose, however, and with substantially higher
US aid and short-term borrowing, the current-account
deficit was covered without lowering foreign ex-
change reserves.
In 1976 the current-account deficit probably
will improve by $300 million. With exports in-
creasing as a result of recent trade agreements
with the EC and the US, and with the recovery in
luxury exports as the world economy picks up, the
trade gap should narrow. The estimated increases
in assistance from world Jewry, US aid, and other
capital inflows should more than cover the current-
account deficit.
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LEBANON
Spokesmen for the major Christian po-
litical parties have now been joined by
leaders of Lebanon's small, ultraconserv-
ative Christian groups in approving, in
principle, the Syrian peace initiative.
None of the Christian leaders, however,
has yet accepted the detailed political
reforms proposed by Syria.
Continued progress in political negotiations
appears to result primarily from the assurances of
Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam that forces of the
Palestine Liberation Army now in Lebanon will be
returned to Syria as soon as a settlement is
reached. According to press reports, Khaddam has
said some PLA troops could be returned within ten
days.
Prime Minister Karami, by formally withdrawing
his resignation, has demonstrated confidence that
negotiations will succeed. In addition, he is again
talking about forming an expanded and more represen-
tative cabinet that would include members of Pierre
Jumayyil's Christian Phalanges Party and Kamal
Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party.
Today is the deadline for the withdrawal of
all private militiamen from the streets of Beirut.
The separation of forces so far has proceeded on
schedule, but the two most difficult areas--the
hotel district and the encircled Palestinian refu-
gee camps--have been left until last, and trouble
could still develop over them.
The government has appealed to civil servants
in all public security departments to return to
work today. The internal security force, which
ultimately will be responsible for maintaining
civil order, virtually disappeared during the heavy
fighting last week.
The security force in Beirut would now have
great difficulty performing even normal police
functions if the Palestine Liberation Army were
withdrawn.
(continued)
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The Israelis have greeted the cease-fire and
the Syrian peace initiative with mixed emotions.
There is general relief that the tensions over
Lebanon have decreased and that the bloodshed has
at least temporarily ended.
On the other hand, there is concern that Syria
has appreciably strengthened its influence in Leb-
anon and may eventually turn Lebanon into another
Arab confrontation state against Israel.
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Soviet
NOTES
Angola
The Soviet Kresta-II - class cruiser that left
Conakry Saturday is continuing south along the Af-
rican coast. It probably will rendezvous with the
landing ship in the Gulf of Guinea sometime today
or tomorrow.
Cuba is installing fuel storage tanks at an
airport near Georgetown, Guyana, to facilitate the
airlift to Africa.
Texaco, which has had the only refueling facil-
ities at the airport, has refused to supply Cuban
aircraft involved in the airlift. The Cubans have
been prohibited from refueling in Barbados, the
Azores, and Canada.
(continued)
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The Soviets are expressing public satisfaction
with Secretary Kissinger's visit to Moscow last
week, an event well covered by their media.
Although Soviet media have reported that the
discussions covered a wide range of problems, these
accounts have focused exclusively on the strategic
arms issue. Moscow's positive coverage of the visit
has been tempered by frequent reminders that "cer-
tain US circles" are increasing their resistance to
improved relations with the USSR. Pravda mentioned,
for example, that the draft US budget contains a
substantial increase in military spending. The So-
viets have also resumed the highly critical press
treatment of US affairs that has been typical in
recent months. During the Secretary's visit, nega-
tive material, although not eliminated, was sharply
reduced.
The Soviet Union has taken measures since late
December to project an image of compliance with the
CSCE accord, especially in the area of emigration.
These moves, which include the sudden permis-
sion to emigrate granted to several prominent Jewish
dissidents, go hand-in-hand with a tougher official
posture toward dissident activity. The most impor-
tant changes in the emigration procedures are a re-
duction in fees and the cutting of some red tape.
Jewish activists in Moscow have already expressed
skepticism that the changes--almost wholly unpubli-
cized within the USSR--will actually lead to freer
emigration.
(continued)
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The government of Panama is promoting press
stories of a major breakthrough in the canal treaty
negotiations to divert attention from anti-govern-
ment protests.
Panamanian newspapers are headlining reports
that the US has agreed to transfer the canal back
to Panama in 1995, to reduce the size of the Canal
Zone up to 90 percent, and to agree to inter-Ameri-
can arbitration of future disputes. The press im-
plies that final agreement is near partly because
of Torrijos' warning to US Ambassador Bunker late
last year not to return to Panama for further nego-
tiations without specific proposals. The govern-
ment's media campaign is part of an effort to draw
the heat from public protests against the wide-
spread arrest and exiling of prominent administra-
tion critics.
A Jordanian air force delegation was scheduled
to begin a visit to the USSR yesterday to evaluate
Soviet military equipment for possible purchase.
The visit reportedly grew out of a recent So-
viet offer to sell 12 MI-6s, the world's largest
operational helicopters, at one third the price of
comparable equipment. The delegation also hopes to
see MIG-23 and MIG-25 jet aircraft and the SA-9
tactical surface-to-air missile system. During a
recent visit to Syria, King Husayn is said to have
been impressed with Soviet armament, particularl
MIG-23 aircraft./
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