THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 24 JANUARY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015012
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 24, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
January 24, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category,513(1),(2).(3)
declassified onlY on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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January 24, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon:
USSR-Lebanon: The Soviets probably welcome the
latest moves toward resolution of the Lebanese
crisis. (Page 2)
Angola:
Portugal: Direct negotiations began this week on
a new political pact between the Portuguese
military and political parties over the role
each will play in a revised government.
(Page 5)
Notes: Spain; Iraq; North Yemen - USSR; India;
EC-Yugoslavia; Cuba-Jamaica (Pages 6, 7, and 8)
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LEBANON
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/ Ji la I
USSR-LEBANON ?
The Soviets probably welcome the
latest moves toward resolution of the
Lebanese crisis.
Although Pravda alluded yesterday to the "in-
trigues" of "reactionary imperialist forces" against
Lebanon and warned against Israeli plans to inter-
vene, there are no solid indications that Moscow
is seriously concerned about foreign intervention
at this time.
A settlement of the crisis along the lines
worked out by President Franjiyah and Syrian Pres-
ident Asad would be to Moscow's liking. The So-
viets would approve of the strengthening of the
Lebanese left and the increased prestige accruing
to the Palestinians and the Syrians. They would
applaud the fact that Egyptian President Sadat has
largely been isolated from involvement in reaching
a settlement.
Moscow has already sought to link the Lebanese
turmoil to a need for a Middle East settlement via
the Geneva conference. Pravda yesterday went a
step further when it implied that creation of a
Palestinian state would enable "hundreds of thou-
sands" of Palestinians to leave Lebanon.
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ANGOLA
(continued)
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_
Cameroon
4,14alabo *Ya0und6
g
Equa
Gui
Central African Republic
Bangui
Sudan Ethiopia
Libreville
Uganda
Kampala*
Kenya
Gabon
Victoria
*Nairobi
Brazzaville
mbura
ndi
Cabinda \
Matadi
Kinshasa
Dar es
alaam
Luanda
Lake
Tanganyika
Railroad
Ta n-Za m Railroad
Angola
Railroad
Benguela
Zambia
Lusaka
Botswana
Walvis Bay
(Rep. of S. Al.)
Gaborone
Lourenco Marques
bane
South Africa
559173 1-76 '
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PORTUGAL
Direct negotiations began this
week on a new political pact between
the Portuguese military and political
parties over the role each will play
in a revised government. The draft
agreement presented by the military
has already been sharply criticized
by democratic party leaders who be-
Zieve it keeps too much power in the
hands of the all-military Revolution-
ary Council.
Although the military proposal appears unac-
ceptable to the parties in its present form, it is
less restrictive than the agreement signed last
April that assured the military virtual control of
Portuguese politics for three to five years. The
Socialist, Popular Democratic, and Social Demo-
cratic Center parties nevertheless hope to restrict
the council to an advisory role.
The Communists and their allies, on the other
hand, want the armed forces to retain the upper
hand in the Lisbon government in the belief that
Communist influence continues to be greater in the
armed forces than among the civilian population.
The pace of negotiations will have to pick up
if elections are to be held as scheduled on April
25.
In the Azores, recent concessions by the Por-
tuguese government on autonomy have strengthened
local leaders who favor autonomy over independence
and have relaxed political tensions in the islands.
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NOTES
Spanish Prime Minister Arias' plan to reform
the political system encountered obstacles yester-
day when the rightist-dominated Council of the Realm
voted against the proposal to postpone parliamentary
elections for one year; elections are now scheduled
for March 1.
The Cabinet had proposed the delay to allow
time for changes that would make the Parliament
more representative. The Council is scheduled to
meet again Monday, apparently to take another vote,
and King Juan Carlos and his ministers may try for
a postponement of at least a few months rather than
a year.
If the Council should refuse to compromise,
the King and the Cabinet might decide to issue the
decree anyway, on the grounds that the Council's
role is vaguely defined in the constitution. Such
a move would provide an early test of strength be-
tween the reform-minded Cabinet and establishment
rightists.
Satellite photography of mid-December indi-
cates that Iraq has at least 700 tank transporters,
almost twice our previous estimate of the Iraqi in-
ventory.
In the October 1973 war, Iraqi forces were
hampered in their movement to the Golan Heights by
a lack of transporters for armored vehicles. With
the new transporters, Iraq can move a larger force
to the Golan Heights, and can complete the move in
less time than we had thought. The transporters
are enough to move the tanks of two armored divi-
sions and a mechanized infantry division--approxi-
mately the force we estimate Baghdad would send to
Syria in the event of another war with Israel.
(continued)
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North Yemen
India
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The EC decided this week to give Yugoslavia
access to European Investment Bank funds.
Concerned that Soviet influence in Yugoslavia
will increase after President Tito's death, some
members are anxious to take steps now to broaden
Belgrade's relations with the West. The EC Council
has authorized an initial $60 million to construct
a trans-Yugoslavian highway that will link Italy
and Greece. This is the first time a Communist
country has been given access to credits from the
investment bank.
Cuban
Jamaica
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