THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 8 JANUARY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014998
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 8, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
A
January 8, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 513( I
declassified on on aPPr.va, of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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January 8, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Heavy fighting in Beirut's suburbs threatens
to draw large Palestinian forces into the battle.
(Page 1)
Angola: The National Front is preparing for an at-
tack by the Popular Front on a key road junc-
tion east of Ambriz; Cuba may be using George-
town, Guyana, as a secret shuttle stop for its
military airlift to Angola. (Page 3)
Italy: An early election may be the only way out
of Italy's political muddle. (Page 5)
Notes: USSR-Angola; USSR-Morocco; Venezuela
(Pages 7 and 8)
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LEBANON
Heavy fighting erupted yesterday in
almost all Beirut suburbs following the
collapse of negotiations to end the Chris-
tian blockade of two Palestinian refugee
camps. If the Christian blockade contin-
ues, Fatah and Saiqa fedayeen units may
for the first time be drawn into the fight-
ing in force. These groups could, within
days, commit as many as 5,000 troops to
the fighting in Beirut. The introduction
of such numbers would upset the rough bal-
ance of strength between Muslims and
Christians that has prevailed over the
past several months.
The Palestinian response thus far has been to
shell Christian areas from the Tall Za'tar refugee
camp and to attack the predominantly Christian Horsh
Thabet district. Less intense clashes occurred yes-
terday throughout the Christian and Muslim neighbor-
hoods on the east side of the Beirut River.
(continued)
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Prime Minister Karami has been unable to secure
Muslim backing for reforms he had promised Franjiyah,
Damascus is refusing to accept a Christian
proposal that any comprehensive agreement be guaran-
teed by an international police force to include
Saudis, Kuwaitis, and Syrians.
On Tuesday, Syrian Prime Minister Khaddam re-
acted to ultra-conservative Lebanese demands for
the partition of Lebanon with the threat that Syria
would annex the country if such an attempt were made.
Such warnings are intended by Syria to intimi-
date Lebanese Christians into making political conces-
sions rather than as firm declarations of intent.
Syria wants to avoid giving Israel a pretext for mov-
ing into southern Lebanon.
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SOU
(Interna
STATUTE MILES
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ANGOLA
The National Front is preparing for
an expected Popular Front attack on a k7
road junction east of Ambriz.
morale at Ambri,z is plummeting and some
heavy weapons have been moved to Ambrizete
to keep them from falling into enemy hands.
the
Front hopes to begin an effort to recapture Carmona,
which it lost to the Popular Movement last weekend.
The loss of Carmona, a district capital in the area
inhabited by the Front's Bakongo tribal supporters,
was a severe political as well as military setback
for the Front. The Popular Movement is heralding
the capture as a major blow against National Front
"oppression" in the north, and it will probably play
heavily on that theme at the Organization of African
Unity meetings opening today in Addis Ababa.
In central Angola, the Popular Movement has
broken the National Front - National Union siege of
Quibala and has begun a strong drive to the south-
east. The objective of the drive is the city of
Andulo, a gateway to the heavily populated central
highlands, where the National Union draws its tri-
bal support.
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In the east, no territory is known to have
changed hands in recent days, but fighting is
taking place between Popular Movement and Zairian
forces at Teixeira de Sousa. Movement forces ap-
parently destroyed a bridge linking Teixeira de
Sousa with Diolo on the Zairian side of the border
in a move to forestall a possible attack from Zaire.
The Soviet guided-missile cruiser that left
the Mediterranean Sunday is moving south, probably
en route to Conakry, Guinea, which it could reach
by the end of the week. We had earlier assumed
that the ship's movement was in reaction to the
Moroccan seizure of a Soviet fishing trawler. It
is too early to determine whether the cruiser will
remain at Conakry or join the Soviet destroyer and
landing ship that are now in Angolan waters.
(continued)
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_ _
Cuba may be using Georgetown, Guyana, as a
secret shuttle stop for its military airlift to
Angola.
A local civil air official has told our em-
bassy in Georgetown that logs at Georgetown's
Timehri airport show a total of five Cuban flights
to Africa since December 21. Most if not all of
the flights involved IL-18s rather than the Bris-
tol Britannias we have been observing on other
legs of the Cuban airlift.
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ITALY
The resignation of the Italian gov-
ernment yesterday presents the country's
party leaders with basic political choices.
Another shuffling of cabinet portfolios
would provide politicians only a temporary
respite. An early parliamentary election
may be the only way out.
The Socialist Party brought about Prime Minis-
ter Moro's resignation by withdrawing its support
in parliament. The Socialist decision came after
months of analysis led Socialist leaders to con-
clude that their party must take the initiative or
eventually risk its survival as a separate politi-
cal party.
The Socialists concluded that any new partner-
ship with the Christian Democrats must be based on
two conditions:
--That the Christian Democrats agree to pro-
grams that would appeal to the leftist voters
the Socialist want to capture.
--That any new government consult more openly
and formally with the Communists so that they
cannot use their opposition status so effec-
tively in electoral competition with the So-
cialists.
The latter condition--aimed as much against
the Christian Democrats as the Communists--is likely
to be the major stumbling block to any new agree-
ment. Had the Socialists waited until after the
Christian Democratic congress is held in March, the
latter might have found a way to compromise on the
issue.
As of now, however, the Christian Democrats
are deeply divided over the wisdom of openly quali-
fying their opposition to the Communists. A major-
ity of Christian Democrats appear to feel that deal-
ing with the Communists more openly runs the risk
of sliding into broader and irreversible collabora-
tion with them.
(continued)
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For their part, the Communists do not relish
the prospect of a free-for-all at this time among
the governing parties. The Communists saw their in-
terests served best by Moro's continuation in of-
fice. That gave them the opportunity to work dis-
creetly in parliament to further Communist leader
Berlinguer's aim of an eventual rapprochement with
the Christian Democrats, while maintaining Commu-
nist credentials as an opposition party.
President Leone has the option of refusing to
accept Moro's resignation or of insisting on a par-
liamentary debate followed by a vote of confidence.
The President refused to accept former prime minis-
ter Rumor's resignation in 1974, because Leone
thought the political and economic situation too
precarious to permit a government collapse. Rumor
eventually succeeded in patching up the feud. Leone
has a similar view of the current situation, but
he will probably conclude that the differences that
led the Socialists to abandon the government are
deeper in this instance.
All of the parties are publicly opposed to an early
election, although some Socialists and Christian
Democrats are privately urging their parties to
push the situation in that direction.
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NOTES
The Soviet Union seems to be trying to end
speculation that an unsigned commentary published
in Pravda on January 3 signaled a major change in
Moscow's policy toward Angola.
A front-page editorial that appeared in iz-
vestia on Tuesday reiterated Moscow's view that
there is no contradiction between Soviet support
for the Popular Movement and detente. The edito-
rial states that detente and the "struggle against
racism and apartheid"--an obvious reference to
South African involvement in Angola--are compat-
ible. Izvestia described the National Front and
National Union as "tools of imperialism," and re-
asserted the "right" of the USSR--and, by implica-
tion, Cuba--to intervene in Angola. Although the
editorial does not exclude the possibility of an
eventual coalition regime in Angola or the cessa-
tion of Soviet (and Cuban) intervention, it offers
no encouragement along these lines.
The Soviet fishing ship now being held in
Agadir, Morocco, is likely to be released in the
next few days.
The Moroccans have satisfied themselves that
the trawler carried neither arms nor Algerian of-
ficers as Rabat had publicly claimed. A Soviet
press statement yesterday, refuting reports that
the trawler carried arms or Algerians, included
no belligerent language. This suggests that the
USSR is ready to write off the incident, if the
vessel is released.
(continued)
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Venezuela
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USSR?SALT
(continued)
Al
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