THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 3 NOVEMBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014944
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 3, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
November 3, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( 0,12/(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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November 3, 1975
Table of Contents
USSR: Preliminary Soviet data indicate that this
year's grain crop was even worse than we esti-
mated. (Page 1)
Lebanon: Street fighting in Beirut slackened again
yesterday after the arrangement of yet another
cease-fire. (Page 3)
Syria-Israel: Syrian military forces apparently are
no longer at the high level of alert they as-
sumed more than a week ago. (Page 5)
Portugal: Prime Minister Azevedo and other anti-
Communist military leaders are appealing for
calm and unity to cool the political unrest
stirred by the approach of Angolan independence
next week. (Page 6)
Spain: The Communist Party has made concessions in
a bid to unite the Spanish left. (Page 8)
Spanish Sahara: Spain apparently has decided it has
little alternative but to turn again to the
UN. (Page 9)
Notes: China-India; Bangladesh;
tine-UN (Pages 11 and 12)
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USSR
Preliminary data from several Soviet
republics indicate that this year's grain
crop in the USSR was even worse than we
estimated. We now expect a crop of 150
million to 155 million tons--5 to 10 mil-
lion tons below our last estimate and 60
to 65 million tons less than the Soviets
had planned on. Contrary to normal prac-
tice, the Soviet Union has not yet reported
this year's grain production, even though
the harvest has ended.
The range in the revised forecast reflects our
uncertainty about the area that has been abandoned
or used as forage, although we believe it to be more
than 10 percent of the area sown.
The Soviets have reentered the US grain market
following the end--on October 20--of the moratorium
on new sales. By the end of October, Moscow had
contracted for an additional 1.6 million tons of US
corn, raising estimated Soviet purchases of all types
of grain from all sources to about 25.5 million tons.
More than half of this is believed to be wheat, with
corn making up much of the remainder.
The US is the leading supplier, followed by
Canada and Australia. If, as we expect, the Soviets
purchase a total of 30 million tons of grain for
delivery between July 1975 and September 1976, the
US will supply over half this amount.
The Soviets are sending conflicting signals on
their purchasing intentions. They have indicated
that they are prepared to buy substantial additional
amounts of US grain, but have also suggested that
their buying program in the US is about completed.
Neither Soviet nor US ports can handle large
new shipments at this time. Moscow may hope that a
delay in additional purchases for several months
may cause grain prices to decline. The Soviets are
likely to make substantial new purchases around the
beginning of next year.
(continued)
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Imported grain will only partially fill the gap
between Soviet supply and demand. Even allowing for
additional purchases and the reduction of stocks to
a minimum, the USSR will still be roughly 30 million
tons shy of normal grain requirements.
Belt-tightening measures have already begun.
Distress slaughtering of livestock, mainly hogs,
started in August and continued through September,
when industrial meat production reached a record
high. The number of hogs is falling more rapidly
than pork production figures indicate because ani-
mals are being slaughtered at below-normal weights,
thus avoiding intensive grain feeding during the
last stages of fattening.
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LEBANON
Street fighting in Beirut slackened
again yesterday after the arrangement of
yet another cease-fire--the twelfth in the
past seven months. Some of the heaviest
fighting to date took place in the capi-
tal on Friday and Saturday.
This cease-fire, like those that preceded it,
may provide only a brief lull in the fighting. None
of the leaders of the warring factions seems to be
in complete control of his forces.
Previous cease-fires have been used primarily
as a time to replenish depleted supplies rather than
to seek a genuine solution to the situation. There
is no reason to believe the present cease-fire will
be any different.
Prime Minister Karami has called a meeting of
the national dialogue committee for today. The
committee, which is charged with seeking a political
solution to end the fighting, has made little prog-
ress and has not held a session for almost two weeks.
The committee continues unlikely to make much head-
way because of deteriorated relations between Prime
Minister Karami, who is a Muslim, and key Christian
leaders--President Franjiyah, Interior Minister
Shamun, and Phalanges chief Jumayyil.
Karami angered both the Phalangists and Shamun's
National Liberal Party on Friday when he assumed per-
sonal direction of security matters which previously
had been directed by Shamun. Fears have abated, how-
ever, that Karami will resign. He stated publicly
yesterday that he intends to remain prime minister
until the security situation is under control.
It seems likely that, at a mini-
mum, Syria has reinforced Saiga units inside Lebanon
because of the increased fighting late last week.
Damascus may also have spread rumors that Syrian
regulars had intervened or were about to intervene
in order to put pressure on the Phalangists to accept
a new cease-fire.
(continued)
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We continue to be-
lieve that Damascus does not want to send its regu-
lar forces openly into Lebanon for fear of provoking
a military reaction from Israel.
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40 Statute, Miles
20 40 Kilometers
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SYRIA-ISRAEL
Syrian military forces apparently
are no longer at the high level of alert
they assumed more than a week aao.
noted, dur-
ing a tour of the capital area last Thursday, that
more troops than usual seemed to be on pass. Among
them were personnel from the four Syrian divisions
stationed along the Golan Heights, and members of
the Saudi contingent positioned at Al Kiswah, some
12 miles south of Damascus. The attache also noticed
that vehicle workshops at Al Kiswah had closed for
the weekend, despite the large amount of equipment
awaiting repair.
Syria and Saudi Arabia have continued prepara-
tions for their twice-postponed joint air and ground
exercise.
that current Syrian plans call for a practice exer-
cise on Wednesday or Thursday and the actual exer-
cise the day following the practice. The exercise
will include an air-drop of about 120 paratroops
near Dumayr, about 30 miles northeast of Damascus.
The operation will be supported by Saudi F-5 fight-
ers operating from an airfield in northern Jordan.
/today
and to depart on November 10. The Jordanians
reportedly will not participate in the exercise
but will provide airfield support and radar assist-
ance to the Saudis.
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PORTUGAL
Prime Minister Azevedo and other anti-
Communist military leaders are appealing
for calm and unity to cool the political
unrest stirred by the approach of Angolan
independence next week. Leftist forces in
Portugal claim that the arrest last week-
end of two supporters of former president
Spinola justifies their insistence that a
right-wing coup is imminent.
Two former military officers, who reportedly
left the country with Spinola following the coup
that failed last March, were picked up by security
troops at a camp for Angolan refugees in northern
Portugal. They were said to possess Spanish cur-
rency and are believed to have entered Portugal
secretly from Spain. The US embassy in Lisbon re-
ports that several individuals with ties to the
conservative Portuguese Liberation Army also may
have been detained.
The left has been agitating to alter Lisbon's
declared policy of impartiality among the three
Angolan liberation movements in favor of the Popular
Movement. In addition to pressure from left-wing
political parties, press, and radical military of-
ficers, there is evidence that activists of Popular
Movement are arriving in Lisbon on refugee flights
to take part in coming rallies that will support the
Movement. The first of these is scheduled for to-
night.
As the airlift of refugees from Angola comes
to an end, conservative refugee groups are certain
to become bolder in registering their discontent
with left-wing support for the Popular Movement and
for the meager resettlement assistance offered by
the Lisbon government. The bombing and sacking
last month of an Angolan cultural center controlled
by the Popular Movement indicates that the returnees
are willing to employ violence. They have planned
a rally of their own later in the week to protest
the Movement.
(continued)
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Despite the political turmoil, the 19-man
Revolutionary Council is attempting to carry on as
usual. The council did not, as rumored, take action
against army chief Fabiao or security chief Carvalho
at its session during the weekend. It did, however,
approve the long-awaited legal framework for the
investigation and trial of nearly 1,300 members of
the former regime's security police who have been
detained since the coup of April 1974. The council
also established a tribunal to deal with persons
implicated in the attempted coup last March and
announced its intention to arrest civilians possess-
ing military arms.
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SPAIN
The Spanish Communist Party has ap-
parently made significant concessions in
an effort to create a facade of unity be-
tween the two loose coalitions of the
Spanish left. The joint communique issued
Saturday by the Communist-dominated Demo-
cratic Junta and the more moderately left-
ist Democratic Platform of Convergence
did not condemn Prince Juan Carlos out of
hand as the Communists would have pre-
ferred.
The communique was also vague on Communist de-
mands for the establishment of a provisional govern-
ment and the calling of a national referendum to
choose between a monarchy and a republic. The state-
ment called for a "democratic break" with Francoism
and referred to a "constituent period" which would
lead to a referendum. No deadlines were set for the
referendum. Three other main objectives listed in
the communique are issues on which there is broad
agreement among the Spanish opposition:
--Amnesty for political prisoners.
--Freedom for labor unions and political par-,
ties and guarantees of human rights.
--Full political rights and "freedoms" for re-
gions, such as Catalonia and the Basque coun-
try.
The communique closed with the statement that
the two coalitions would remain in contact and co-
operate from time to time, but would continue to
seek their own particular objectives.
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SPANISH SAHARA
Spain--faced with Algeria's resis-
tance to a bilateral settlement of the
Spanish Saharan issue by Spain and Mo-
rocco and with Moroccan unwillingness
to call off the mass march into the ter-
ritory?apparently has decided it has
little alternative but to turn again to
the UN. Madrid, moreover, presumably
sees such a course as focusing inter-
national attention on Spain's desire to
honor its obligation to Spanish Sahara.
Prince Juan Carlos' surprise one-day
visit to the territory yesterday not
only committed him to support UN efforts
but also demonstrated his solidarity
with the army, whose backing is essential
to him.
The Security Council resolution passed yester-
day calls on Secretary General Waldheim to resume
consultations with the concerned parties. It omits
any reference to a UN trusteeship arrangement that
Waldheim had previously discussed with Spain and
the involved North African states.
Spain's acceptance of a UN role leaves Moroc-
can King Hassan little choice but to proceed with
the march--reportedly sometime in the next few
days. Rabat will probably claim that Madrid's de-
termination to stop the march by force if necessary,
rather than Morocco's own actions, is contrary to
yesterday's Security Council resolution.
Once marchers cross the border, there will al-
most certainly be clashes with Spanish forces or
with armed partisans of the Polisario Front, a pro-
independence Saharan group supported by Algeria.
In event of the latter, Moroccan troops stationed
in the south are likely to intervene.
Morocco has "categorically denied" press re-
ports that its forces crossed the border into
Spanish Sahara yesterday and clashed with the
Polisario Front. The Moroccan information minister
said, however, that he could not exclude the possi-
bility that pro-Moroccan residents of the territory
might have "raised the Moroccan flag" in some areas.
It is possible that Moroccan irregulars posing as
Saharans crossed the border to establish a symbolic
presence and clashed with a Polisario force.
(continued)
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Algeria will support the Security Council's
call for restraint. It wants to return the Saharan
problem to the General Assembly, which in the past
has strongly supported self-determination. The new
Security Council resolution, in fact, pointedly re-
fers to the role of the General Assembly in the
Saharan question.
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so 90
Chinese line
of Control
CHIN
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NOTES
China has not commented on the clash along
the Sino-Indian border which the Indian foreign
ministry reported on Saturday.
New Delhi says that on October 20, a routine
patrol "well within Indian territory" was ambushed
by some 40 Chinese troops. Four members of the
Indian patrol were killed. The foreign ministry
said the incident occurred in Arunachal Pradesh,
the former Northeast Frontier Agency, but an Indian
army officer told the US consulate in Calcutta that
the clash was inside Sikkim. India absorbed Sikkim
as a state early this year.
It Is unlikely that the
clash will lead to serious fighting. The weather
in the Himalayas this time of year would impede the
movement of reinforcements and supplies for both
sides.
Bangla-
desh
(continued)
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The Palestine debate begins today in the UN
General Assembly with the Arab states split among
themselves and possibly with the nonaligned states,
hitherto their most consistent allies, over how far
to push for reaffirmation of Palestinian rights to
a homeland.
The proposed resolution calls for implementa-
tion of the resolution passed last year, which recog-
nized the rights of the Palestinians to a national
homeland. This year, the Arabs are demanding that
a special committee be formed to work out a time-
table for achieving Palestinian self-determination
and independence. Reactions of the UN representa-
tives of the EC to the draft resolution have been
unfavorable.
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Top Secret
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