THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 8 OCTOBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014922
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 8, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
October 8, 1975
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012800010033-9
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 8, 1975
Table of Contents
Portugal: The extreme left yesterday took over a
heavy artillery regiment overlooking Porto,
Portugal's second largest city, thereby mount-
ing the most serious threat yet to the Azevedo
-government. (Page 1)
Lebanon: Rumors to oust President 25X1
Franjiyah are circulating in Beirut. (Page 3)
Notes: Syria; USSR (SALT); USSR (grain); Poland;
Morocco - Spanish Sahara; France; Ecuador
(Pages 4, 5, 6, and 7)
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PORTUGAL
The extreme left and the Communists
yesterday enlarged their challenge to
the Portuguese government. Hundreds of
soldiers, with the help of thousands of
civilian supporters, took over a heavy
artillery regiment overlooking Porto,
Portugal's second lar est Seizure
of the unit, which includes
an arsenal of 700 tons o -2,ght arms and
ammunition, is the most serious threat
mounted so far against the Azevedo gov-
ernment. The commander of the Northern
Military Region last night was reported
trying to resolve the matter through
negotiations.
According to a well-placed and re-
liable US embassy source, Prime Minis-
ter Azevedo has spoken privately of re-
signing "within a week or so" if he
cannot resolve the problem of military
discipline.
The principal anti-government agitator in Lis-
bon is Major Dinis de Almeida, deputy commander of
the extremist-controlled light artillery regiment.
At a Communist-supported demonstration on Monday,
Almeida attacked the political parties participating
in the government, blaming them for the successive
failures of the ruling military to solve Portugal's
economic problems.
High-ranking military government officials also
are challenging the government. Admiral Rosa Cou-
tinho, a member of the Revolutionary Council, told a
meeting of workers' councils Monday that although
Prime Minister Azevedo is a "man of the left," any-
one is suspect who calls for order and discipline
before the revolution is completed.
The Communists have not taken the lead in the
current turmoil. The party did bring thousands of
workers by train to Lisbon yesterday to support a
brief strike by steel workers.
(continued)
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Successive challenges to the government's au-
thority have completely frustrated Prime Minister
Azevedo's attempts to restore military discipline
and public order. Although the extreme leftist op-
position appears poorly organized, it is now ques-
tionable whether the Azevedo government can muster
sufficient support in the Lisbon area to maintain
itself in power.
West German Defense Minister Leber's three-day
visit to Portugal beginning today clearly is meant
to show Bonn's support for the Azevedo government.
Leber was invited by President Costa Gomes some
time ago, but said that he could not accept until
the political situation in Portugal stabilized.
Although the Germans do not consider this accom-
plished, they apparently have concluded that an overt
show of support at this time might help the anti-
Communist forces. Leber is scheduled to meet with
Costa Gomes, Azevedo, Foreign Minister Antunes, and
other members of the Armed Forces Movement and the
political parties. High on the list of bilateral
matters is the question of the German air base at
Beja in southern Portugal. The West German air
force makes little use of the base and probably
would like to pull out before the agreement with the
Portuguese expires in 1978./
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LEBANON
Rumors to oust
President Franjiyah are circulating
in Beirut. The dissatisfac-
tion with the President in the pre-
dominantly Christian-officered army
probably stems both from frustration
over the secondary role the military
has been forced to play in the cur-
rent crisis and from a sincere belief
that Franjiyah has lost
the confidence of the country.
The push for Franjiyah's removal seems to be a
symptom of frustration over the difficulty in com-
ing to grips with the Christian-Muslim power-sharing
issue that is at the root of the crisis. Most Mus-
lims would like to see Franjiyah replaced by a
Christian less identified with the right-wing Pha-
langes Party, which has been resisting the Muslim ef-
fort to modify the 1943 National Covenant. Many
Christians, for their part, believe that the re-
moval of the President is necessary to make way for
a compromise granting the Muslims a greater share
of political power. The Christian community as a
whole, however, could split on this issue.
Sporadic fighting occurred yesterday between
Christian and Muslim militia elements in the south-
ern suburbs of Beirut and in the Tripoli-Zagharta
region in northern Lebanon. The inability of the
security forces to restore order in these areas may
presage renewed and widespread fighting when the
religious holiday ends later this week.
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Syria)
NOTES
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The Soviet military newspaper Red Star on Sep-
tember 30 impliedpublicly Moscow's contention in
the SALT negotiations that air-launched cruise mis-
siles should be counted under a SALT II aggregate
limit.
The article comes just three weeks after a
similar article in Red Star on the US submarine-
launched cruise missile threat. Both articles dem-
onstrate a growing concern in the Soviet military
over the potential menace of US cruise missile pro-
grams and a desire to see this issue resolved as
part of any SALT II agreement. The arguments pre-
sented by the author of the article on air-launched
cruise missiles, in fact, represent the Soviet po-
sition on cruise missile limitations. His asser-
tion that air-launched missiles will expand US stra-
tegic attack capabilities, and not merely enhance
defense penetration, echoes Soviet arguments that
air-launched cruise missiles should be subject to
the same treatment in SALT as air-launched ballistic
missiles. His warning that the US plans "mass de-
ployment" of air-launched cruise missiles could be
interpreted as a charge that failure to limit these
missiles might permit US circumvention of possible
SALT II quantitative limits.
(continued)
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We estimate that the Soviets can purchase only
3 to 3.3 million tons of grain from sources other
than the US for delivery during FY 1976.
We are assuming that usual trade patterns will
not change and that current crop production forecasts
will hold. As of October 1, the Soviets had pur-
chased 10.4 million tons of grain from the US and
9.85 million tons from other suppliers. In future
negotiations, the USSR may on occasion be competing
with East European countries for free world supplies.
Of the total available supplies, only about one third--
1 million tons--is wheat; the remainder is feedgrains.
The single most important supplier is Argentina, with
1.3 to 1.4 million tons available for export; nego-
tiations with the Soviets are rumored to be in prog-
ress.
Popular dissatisfaction with the economic sit-
uation in Poland has resulted in several instances
of suspected arson.
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Leaflets found at the site of a fire
stroyed Warsaw's largest department store
tember 21 threatened more fires if prices
creased
that de-
on Sep-
are in-
A fire damaged a new bridge over the
Vistula on September 23. Stories of other fires,
including one at the Fiat factory in Zeran on Octo-
ber 2, are making the rounds, and all party members
reportedly have been asked to mount a night watch
at factories. The US consulate in Krakow reports
that more meat has appeared in the stores during
the past week, and that increased numbers of police
are on the streets. The extra meat had evidently
been intended for export. The diversion of goods--
initially designated for export--to domestic markets
has been officially announced and will further strain
Poland's already serious balance-of-payments problems.
(continued)
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Moroccan
French
(continued) '
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Ecuador
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