THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 18 SEPTEMBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014905
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 18, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
September 18, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category 513(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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September 18, 1975
Table of Contents
Egypt-Israel:
Jordan-Syria: King Husayn early this week flatly
denied any intention of participating in a war
started by Syria. (Page 2)
Oil: We hold to our estimate that the OPEC price
increase will be within the range of 10 to 15
percent. (Page 3)
Lebanon: Armed clashes in Beirut appear to have
worsened overnight. (Page 4)
Portugal: Most portfolios in the next cabinet have
now been distributed to the Socialists, Popu-
lar Democrats, Communists, and independents;
the prime minister - designate is still trying
to resolve differences between the Communists
and the Popular Democrats. (Page 5)
USSR
Notes: USSR; Ethiopia-US (Page 8)
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EGYPT?ISRAEL
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JORDAN-SYRIA
King Husayn early this week flatly
denied any Jordanian intention of partic-
ipating in a war started by Syria. The
occasion was a conversation with Newsweek
editor Arnaud de Borchgrave. The 'latter
had quoted to Husayn Syrian President
Asad's statement from his Newsweek inter-
view that "Jordan and Syria might have
to resort to hostilities to Liberate our
land."
De Borchgrave's impressions following an in-
terview with both Husayn and Prime Minister Rifai
tend to confirm reporting by our embassy in Amman
that Rifai is the chief advocate of closer rela-
tions with Syria. The King is inclined to approach
ties with Damascus more cautiously. The embassy
speculates that Asad's remarks about renewed con-
flict may temper even Rifai's enthusiasm.
Husayn is unlikely, however, to halt his cau-
tious rapprochement with Syria. A recent embassy
assessment states that Jordan's policy of relations
between the two countries is governed primarily by
short-term policy considerations. These include a
desire for greater security on both the Syrian and
Jordanian fronts, a larger voice in Arab-Israeli
negotiations, improved credentials among the other
Arab states, and a lessening of tensions with the
PLO.
The Jordanians, according to the embassy, be-
lieve Asad is a uniquely reasonable Syrian leader--
compared with potential successors--with whom they
can do business. They feel the policy of rapproche-
ment provides Amman an opportunity to diminish any
potential Syrian military threat to Jordan. Al-
though the King is aware of Jordan's inability to
repel an Israeli military strike at Syria through
northern Jordan, he apparently believes that an
improved Jordanian military position--resulting
from cooperation with Syria--would act as a deter-
rent to any Israeli action.
Both Syria and Jordan, fearful that the new
Sinai accord has diminished Arab negotiating
strength, hope the rapprochement will increase
their political weight in the Arab-Israeli negotiat-
ing context.
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INTERNATIONAL OIL DEVELOPMENTS
We hold to our estimate that the
price increase by the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries will be
within the range of 10 to 15 percent.
The positions of major countries at-
tending the OPEC meeting next week
range between those of Iran and Al-
geria, calling for a boost of 15 to
20 percent, and that of Saudi Arabia,
apparently favoring continuation of
the current price freeze.
The Shah of Iran has continued to push for a
15- to 20-percent price rise, asserting that OPEC
members have lost 30 to 35 percent of their pur-
chasing power to inflation. Saudi Arabia, con-
cerned about the impact that another oil price
rise will have on the Western economies and per-
haps influenced by the second Sinai accord, sur-
prised other cartel members in August by calling
for a continuation of the OPEC price freeze until
next January.
It appears that most other members, including
Venezuela and Kuwait, will support a price increase
in the neighborhood of 10 to 15 percent.
The ministers may try to make the increase
more palatable to Saudi Arabia by implementing it
in stages. A partial increase of 5 to 10 percent
could be applied in October, with a second price
hike effective in January.
We do not believe the Saudis would risk dam-
aging the cartel by vetoing such an increase. They
are likely to maintain publicly their position on
a price freeze and then abstain from voting on an
increase. Saudi Arabia has done this in the past
to register its displeasure with price hikes. Even
if it abstains, Riyadh will undoubtedly apply the
OPEC increase to its own oil.
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LEBANON
Armed clashes apparently became
worse in Beirut overnight; the govern-
ment has warned inhabitants to stay in-
doors. The fighting is especially in-
tense in the southeastern part of the
city where a Muslim suburb abuts a
Christian area controlled by the right-
wing Phalanges Party.
The Phalangists, who were heavily involved in
the fighting last June, have threatened to step in
again if the government--from which they are ex-
cluded--does not call the army into Beirut. So
far, the party's sizable private militia has limited
its actions to occasional shelling and setting up
roadblocks.
Interior Minister Shamun is willing to use the
army, but he is opposed by Prime Minister Karami
and Yasir Arafat, chairman of the Palestine Liber-
ation Organization. Arafat believes
that joint action by the Lebanese internal security
forces and the Palestinian police will be sufficient
to restore order.
Tile violence in the capital frustrated the
government's efforts to negotiate a truce among
the warring factions. The cabinet met yesterday
to consider using the army, but apparently failed
to reach a decision,/
Despite the reluctance of Lebanese Muslim and
Palestinian leaders to turn to the army, both are
involved in consultations to formulate contingency
plans for just such a move. The Beirut press spec-
ulates that PLO forces may agree to work with the
army as they have done in northern Lebanon.
Fighting in Tripoli died down yesterday, and
the government radio said this morning the city is
quiet. The leftists are gradually implementing the
provisions of the "truce" negotiated Tuesday night.
The radical October 24 Movement has released most
of the several dozen police it had seized. Chris-
tians and Muslims in the area are negotiating
through intermediaries to define the buffer zone
that separates Tripoli and Zagharta.
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PORTUGAL
Prime Minister - designate Azevedo
yesterday met with party leaders in an
effort to resolve differences between
the Communists and center-left Popular
Democrats on the number of portfolios
the two parties will receive. Accord-
ing to the US embassy in Lisbon, most
portfolios have now been distributed
to the Socialists, Popular Democrats,
the Communists, and independents.
The Communists have been pushing for equal
representation in the cabinet with the Popular Dem-
ocrats. The Popular Democrats, who polled twice
as many votes as the Communists in the elections
last April, insist that the division of portfolios
reflect electoral strength. The Socialists have
tried to mediate the dispute but are likely to
support the Popular Democrats in an effort to over-
ride Communist objections and get the talks started
again.
Rumors of divisions within the Communist Party
as a result of recent setbacks may help explain
Cunhal's determination to force concessions on the
formation of a new government.
a Central Committee member--Carlos
Aboim Ingles--and others who are unhappy with the
party's strategy are challenging Cunhal's leader-
ship. A Socialist-oriented weekly has also re-
ported that Ingles is questioning Cunhal's direc-
tion of the party.
Communist influence in the military's top
policy-making body, the Revolutionary Council, was
further reduced Tuesday when supporters of Antunes'
anti-Communist faction were elected to the three
air force positions on the Council. The final
composition of the restructured Council will not
be known until the army elects its representatives
later this week.
(continued)
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The army's six-man delegation will probably
be dominated by members of the Antunes group, but
apparently the navy's three representatives, elected
yesterday, are either Communists or on the far left.
In addition to the 12 service representatives,
the restructured Council will include the president,
prime minister, internal security chief, armed
forces chief of staff, and chiefs of staff of the
three services.
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NOTES
The Soviets are attempting to warn consumers
of the possible magnitude of coming food supply
problems.
A Leningrad lecturer last Sunday told his audi-
ence that "this year's crop will be about the same
level as in 1972--a terrible year." In that year,
the USSR harvested 168.2 million metric tons of
grain. The Soviet press had highlighted this sum-
mer's difficult crop conditions but has not re-
leased production data. Meanwhile, reports of food
shortages are appearing in the worst drought-stricken
areas.
A spokesman for the Ethio ian rebels offered
yesterday in Beirut to arrange or a CBS television
crew to visit the four US citizens kidnaped by the
insurgents from the Kagnew communications facility
at Asmara.
All four Americans are reportedly held by the
People's Liberation Forces, a rebel faction led by
Isaias Afework. This faction is at odds with Eri-
trean Liberation Front guerrillas fighting the Ethi-
opian government and the insurgent leaders who are
living in exile. The demands on the US--in effect
the ransom for the captives--announced to the press
by the insurgents last weekend appear to have been
the work of exiles and do not necessarily reflect
the views of the guerrillas holding the US captives.
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UNITED KINGDOM
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