THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 SEPTEMBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014902
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 15, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
September 15, 1975
7-12,6r.pop t25)(1
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category, 5E0),(2101
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
?,
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
September 15, 1975
Table of Contents
USSR: The Soviet grain harvest is two thirds com-
plete, and we still estimate that it will
total 170 million metric tons, making the dif-
ference between supply and requirements 27 to
32 million tons. (Page 1)
Cyprus: Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash, reacting
to President Makarios' decision to take the
Cyprus issue to the UN General Assembly, has
threatened to declare independence for the
Turkish-controlled northern sector of the is-
land. (Page 3)
Portugal: Prime Minister - designate Azevedo an-
nounced his new government's program on Satur-
day, but differences among the politicians
over the composition of the cabinet still must
be overcome. (Page 4)
Notes: Ethiopia; USSR; USSR-Egypt (Page 5)
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USSR
The Soviet grain harvest is two
thirds complete, and we still estimate
that it will total 170 million metric
tons, making the difference between sup-
ply and requirements 27 to 32 million
tons.
The production of all grains this year will be
far short of normal needs, which we estimate to be
about 220 million tons. An additional 13 million
tons of feedgrains may be required to offset un-
usually large losses of hay and other forage crops
which normally supply about two thirds of the
country's livestock feed. The lost forage, added
to the normal grain requirements, bring the total
need for fiscal 1976 to roughly 233 million tons.
These figures reflect official Soviet measures
of grain production and usage, which have ranged
about 8 percent above the world standard basi,sa-
measure. This would mean that the Soviets' require-
ments probably are roughly 58 million tons more
than the expected harvest.
So far during fiscal 1976, the USSR has con-
tracted for about 16 million tons of foreign grain.
In addition, Moscow undoubtedly will draw on its
stocks, which we believe do not exceed 10 to 15
million tons--perhaps considerably less. This will
narrow the difference between expected supply and
requirements to a minimal range of 27 to 32 million
tons.
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The Soviets will have to make up the difference
by attempting to buy additional grain from Western
producers, importing soybeans to stretch feed sup-
plies, reducing feed rations per animal, and in-
creasing slaughter of livestock.
(continued)
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The Soviets
have bought
tons of soybeans.
1 million
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Moscow will use the soybeans to augment this
year's poor harvest of feedgrains and forage crops.
The Soviets have made only one major purchase of
soybeans before--1.2 million tons from the US in
1972. Soybeans can also be processed into vege-
table oil, but the USSR will probably produce enough
vegetable oil this year to meet domestic require-
ments.
2
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Southern Limit
of Turkish Control
Mediterranean Sea
J3430'
Famagusta
32?30'
massol
(U.K. Base)
337
33?30'
Mediterranean Sea
210
State miles
558499 9-75 ,
35?30,
41,
_S .14
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CYPRUS
Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash,
reacting to President Makarios' deci-
sion last week to take the Cyprus is-
sue to the UN General Assembly, has
threatened to declare independence
for the Turkish-controlled northern
sector of the island.
After meeting with Turkish Prime Minister
Demirel on Saturday, Denktash said he would ask
the Turkish Cypriot constituent assembly for au-
thority to declare independence. Such a declara-
tion, he said, would be made if he did not have
equal billing with Makarios at the UN and the Greek
Cypriots did not agree to resume the stalled inter-
communal talks. Ankara would likely oppose a dec-
laration of independence at this time, but a
senior Turkish official has been quoted as saying
Turkey would respect a decision of the Turkish
Cypriot constituent assembly.
A reported alert of Turkish Cypriot forces
last week also may be intended to put pressure
on the Greek side,
Meanwhile, Greek Foreign Minister Bitsios told
Ambassador Kubisch that he had reports the Turks
were prepared to begin settling Varosha--the
Greek sector of Famagusta that has been controlled
by Turks since the fighting in 1974. This has been
one of the areas thought negotiable in any terri-
torial settlement, and one the Greek side would
probably insist on having returned. A UN observer
in the area has reported that up to 3,000 Turkish
Cypriots may have moved into the area so far.
Bitsios has told Ambassador Kubisch that he
doubts the Turks will be any more forthcoming after
the Turkish senatorial election October 12. He
scoffed at the idea that lifting the arms embargo
would facilitate any movement on the Cyprus question.
The Greek foreign minister particularly objected to
NATO Secretary General Luns' implication that the
Greeks supported his recent mission to Washington
to lobby for lifting the embargo.
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PORTUGAL
Prime Minister - designate Azevedo
announced his new government's program
on Saturday to clear one obstacle, but
differences among the politicians over
the composition of the cabinet still
must be overcome.
Azevedo announced that Major Melo Antunes will
be the new foreign minister. He will not name the
rest of the cabinet until sometime later this week
because the Communists still are trying to obtain
greater representation than either the Socialists
or Popular Democrats are willing to allow. Antunes'
appointment indicates, however, that some of the
Communists' objections have been surmounted.
The government program announced by Azevedo
is in general accord with previous demands by the
Socialist Party. He indicated that democratic
pluralism will prevail in the state-controlled media
and in the labor movement. He also said that local
elections will be held "within a reasonable period
of time," and guaranteed the functioning of the
constituent assembly, which is drafting a consti-
tution.
Azevedo left no doubt that the goals of his
government would be to advance toward socialism
and to defend those "revolutionary" gains already
made. He assured his listeners, however, that the
advance would be made with full respect for demo-
cratic freedoms. He called for a restoration of
order and discipline in the armed forces and men-
tioned a crackdown on armed civilian groups.
The prime minister - designate gave lip serv-
ice to the idea of freeing Portugal from foreign
economic domination. He also mentioned, however,
that he would seek closer economic relations with
Western Europe. The naming of Antunes as foreign
minister is a step toward improving relations with
Western Europe and an indication that the new gov-
ernment will seek economic assistance from the EC.
The EC Commission's working group on Portugal is
scheduled to resume meetings today. The Commission
is hopeful that the EC foreign ministers will agree
to its recommendations for aid to Portugal at their
October 6-7 meeting.
Former president Spinola, who reportedly was
meeting with other exiles in Paris last week, has
returned to Brazil.
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NOTES
The president of Ethiopia's military council,
General Teferi Benti, said at a press conference
yesterday that the US communications installation
in Asmara, part of which was severely damaged by
Eritrean insurgents over the weekend, would be
closed down by the end of the year.
His statement left some confusion as to whether
the facility would cease to operate or would operate
on a more restricted basis. The remark was in line
with a government statement to the UN last year,
however, that the installation would be shut down--
a statement made to promote an Ethiopian image of
nonalignment. The two Americans and six Ethiopians
who were manning the part of the installation that
was attacked are still missing. Repairs to the
site cannot be completed for at least a month.
There have been some signs that Soviet chief
of staff Kulikov is interested in arranging a trip
to the US. The idea might be raised when he sees
later this month.
Many foreign
likely to replace
the latter leaves
observers believe that Kulikov is
70-year-old Marshal Grechko, when
his post as minister of defense.
believes that Kulikov
has made some effort to prepare himself for moving
into Grechko's slot. Kulikov has placed loyal of-
ficers in key military positions and has been in-
creasing his exposure by more travel and contacts
with foreigners.
The Soviets apparently are removing their
MIG-25 reconnaissance aircraft from Egypt.
One AN-22 heavy transport, the type of aircraft
used to deliver the MIG-25s to Egypt, arrived in
Cairo on Saturday and remained overnight before re-
turning to the USSR. Additional AN-22 flights were
scheduled for yesterday and today. These flights
most likely are associated with the withdrawal of
the MIG-25s.
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