THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 6 AUGUST 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014868
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: August 6, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
August 6, 1975
5
Thp?Stac_get., 25X1
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category, 513( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
August 6, 1975
Table of Contents
USSR: We have cut our forecast of Soviet grain
output to 165 million tons because of the con-
tinued hot, dry weather in Soviet grain lands.
(Page 1)
Portugal: Civil violence continued in northern
Portugal yesterday as top military leaders
met to try to restructure the government's
executive. (Page 3)
Notes: Somalia; Angola; Egypt-Iran (Pages 5 and 6)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR
The cumulative effects of hot,
dry weather in the Soviet grain lands
have Zed us to cut our forecast of
Soviet grain output to 165 million
tons, down 20 million tons from our
previous forecast of 185 million tons.
Recently acquired data from
weather monitors, and US travelers indicate that the
drought is more severe in the southern and eastern
Ukraine, northern Urals, and northern Kazakhstan
than previously thought. This year's drought is
more widespread than the one in 1972, and in many
?areas is worse than in 1963 and 1965, the poorest
agricultural years in the past 20. Rain fell at
the end of July, but this was too late to help the
grain crop. The drought has also curtailed forage
crops, although recent rains have improved the out-
look for potatoes, the other important starchy staple
in the Soviet diet.
The total shortfall in Soviet production in
relation to expected requirements probably will be
in the order of 50 million tons--the equivalent of
one fourth of the total US grain crop and more than
one third of total world grain exports last year.
To date the Soviets have contracted for about 13.5
million tons of foreign grain, and it now seems
certain that Moscow will be back for additional
large quantities. Although the Soviets should be
able to finance larger imports of grain, available
world supplies are nowhere near sufficient to
satisfy all Soviet needs without drastic increases
in world prices.
Although the eventual volume of Soviet grain
imports will be affected by the size of Western
grain crops, it is clear in any event that Moscow
will have to make substantial domestic adjustments
to cope with a substantial part of the shortfall.
The Soviets will draw on their small cushion of
grain reserves (estimated in the 10 to 15 million
ton range) and will take some combination of the
following steps:
(continued)
1
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--Raise milling rates--increasing the amount
of flour milled from a ton of grain (as Khrush-
chev did following the poor 1963 harvest) would
reduce the quality of flour but save approxi-
mately 4 million tons of grain.
--Slaughter livestock--reduction in livestock
inventories to the 1972 level (a 5-percent
cut) would lower the demand for feedgrains by
roughly 6 million tons.
--Reduce feed rations per head of livestock--
if these were reduced to the 1972 levels,
another 13 million tons could be saved but the
future output of meat would fall.
Although the Soviet government, with its com-
mitment to raising living standards, will be very
reluctant to take such steps, it will have no
alternative.
A harvest failure of this magnitude will com-
plicate political life in Moscow and weaken Brezh-
nev's position in the leadership. The failure
will have an impact on a wide range of matters:
the consumer program, formulation of the next five-
year plan, a program for the Party Congress in Feb-
ruary, and relations with the West. Debate and
disagreement are likely to become more heated on
many issues.
2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
PORTUGAL
Civil violence continued yester-
day in northern Portugal as the coun-
try's top military leaders met again
in Lisbon to discuss the restructuring
of the government's executive.
Goncalves met briefly with some members of his
former cabinet yesterday, apparently in an effort
to demonstrate that the country's affairs are being
administered by a caretaker government.
In the north, where two men were killed on
Monday, hundreds of demonstrators sacked Communist
offices. Similar anti-Communist violence has been
reported in other areas, and a northern 'police
spokesman said that the people are mobilizing in
many villages to "finish off the Communists."
The visiting military governor of the Azores,
Ithat there
is a strong separatist movement in northern Portugal
favoring regional autonomy. The movement,
may soon begin inciting the people
to "rise up" against the central government.
Violence has not been confined to the north.
A bomb exploded yesterday in Lisbon outside a gov-
ernment office. Elements of the Portuguese Libera-
tion Army, an exile group operating out of Spain,
reportedly were responsible for similar bombing
incidents several weeks ago.
(continued)
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Communist efforts to infiltrate and control
key military units also suffered a reversal yester-
day. Last week they appeared to have succeeded in
ousting a conservative commander, Colonel Neves,
and his supporters from the Amadora Commando Regi-
ment, outside of Lisbon. After an official investi-
gation, however, Neves and his men were reinstated
and court-martial proceedings were ordered for the
Communist instigators. The Amadora decision should
not only reinforce flagging military discipline,
but also give badly needed encouragement to military
personnel who oppose Communist infiltration of their
units.
4
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTES
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operational status of the newly completed Somali
military airfield at Dafet, 50 miles northwest of,
Mogadiscio.
Upgrading and expansion of the Dafet airfield
by Soviet construction crews has been under way for
over two years. The airfield combines modern equip-
ment with the longest runway in use at a Somali mil-
itary facility. Should Somalia agree to Soviet use
of Dafet, the USSR could employ it as a staging base
for TU-95 aircraft flying reconnaissance missions
over the eastern and southern reaches of the Indian
Ocean, including Diego Garcia and the Seychelles
Islands.
Fighting in Angola between the Popular Move-
ment and the National Front has spread south of
Luanda into an area where traditional tribal ties
are with the third independence movement, the Na-
tional Union.
National Union leader Jonas Savimbi--who thus
far has remained neutral in the fighting--
probably will be forced to defend his
territory0 his organiza-
tion is not strong enough to accomplish this with-
out forming an alliance with one of the other
groups, most likely the National Front. A military
alliance would not necessarily give the National
Front and the National Union military superiority
over the Popular Movement, but would force that
organization to divide its resources. Meanwhile,
everyone is waiting for new political signals from
Lisbon.
(continued)
5
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Egypt
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6
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Top Secret
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