THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 22 MAY 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014804
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 22, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
May 22, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category MI
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
May 22, 1975
Table of Contents
OPEC: Oil is almost certain to increase in price
during the fourth quarter this year. (Page 1)
Portugal: The Communists' attempt to take over a
Socialist newspaper is continuing to agitate
the tense political situation in Lisbon. (Page 2)
Turkey:
Secretary Kissinger's
visit this week. (Page 3)
Egypt: President Sadat's trip through several Arab
countries has ended with the appearance of
restored Arab solidarity, but, in fact, did
little to move the Arabs closer to a unified
approach to the Geneva peace conference.
(Page 5)
France-NATO: President Giscard has accepted an in-
vitation to attend the dinner to be held for
national leaders participating in the NATO
summit conference in Brussels on May 29 and 30.
(Page 7)
Laos: Demonstrators reportedly began leaving the
main AID compound in Vientiane this morning.
(Page 8)
Notes: Iran; Panama; North Korea - Romania
(Pages 9 and 10)
At Annex
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OPEC
Oil is almost certain to increase
in price during the fourth quarter of
this year.
If the size of the increase is not resolved at
next month's OPEC meeting in Gabon, it undoubtedly
will be at subsequent.meetings. in September. The
Shah, a vigorous advocate of upward adjustments in
oil prices, apparently has received agreements from
Saudi Arabia and VenezUela to' goalong with the
price hikes.
Saudi Arabia, which in the past has played a
key role in limiting price increases, has indicated
it would not oppose a moderate rise. Saudi offi-
cials claim, moreover,-that increased hostility by
the consuming countries might force Riyadh to agree
to even higher prices.
We have no evidence that indicates the size of
the price increases being contemplated by various
OPEC members. Press speculation that the increase
will be about $2 per barrel does not appear to re-
flect the official position of any OPEC country.
The Shah's claims--that the purchasing power of OPEC
oil has declined by 35 percent since early 1974--
would imply an OPEC price jump in the range of $3.50
per barrel in order to catch up. This probably
represents an upper limit for OPEC consideration;
actual increases are likely to be substantially
smaller.
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PORTUGAL
The attempted Communist takeover of
a Socialist newspaper and the government's
subsequent closure of the paper are con-
tinuing to agitate the tense political
situation in Lisbon.
Socialist Party leaders have declared their de-
termination to draw the line on this issue and ap-
pear prepared to oppose the Communists and pressure
the military vigorously to resolve the issue in
their favor.
To emphasize public outrage over this issue,
the Socialists have called for a mass rally tonight
in Lisbon and other Portuguese cities. A party
leader told Ambassador Carlucci yesterday that the
Socialists hope to draw 100,000 or more to the Lisbon
rally, which they hope will be peaceful. The strain
of such a large rally on the security forces will
be severe, and if violence gets started, it could
get out of hand.
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TURKEY
Secretary
Kissinger's visit to Ankara this week,
The Turks will try to show Secretary Kiss-
inger that they are prepared to seek a peaceful
solution to their problems with Greece. While they
will take an initial hard line with the Greeks at
Brussels, they have concessions in mind. These in-
clude a reduction in the area held by the Turks on
Cyprus and agreement to allow 30,000 Greek Cypriots
to return to the Turkish sector.
In return, Ankara will expect the Greek Cypriots
to lift restrictions on the Turkish Cypriots in the
Greek sector and to agree that an overall Turkish
majority will be maintained in the areas of the
Turkish sector to which Greek Cypriots are allowed
to return. Reduction or withdrawal of Greek mili-
tary forces from the Aegean islands will also figure
in a settlement. Apparently, Ankara will try to
link the Cyprus and Aegean questions in order to
give the appearance of concessions being made on
both sides.
(continued)
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There is still a good deal of posturing going
on. Athens has reacted "strongly" to an interview
with Prime Minister Demirel published in Le Monde
last Monday. Demirel took a hardline on Cyprus, but
the Turks now claim that the article is some two
weeks old and does not accurately reflect Demirel's
current views, the interview,
puts in doubt the scheduled meeting
between Greek and Turkish prime ministers in Brus-
sels. It remains likely that the meeting will take
place.
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EGYPT
President Sadat's week-long swing
through Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, and Syria
ended last weekend with the appearance
of restored Arab solidarity, but in fact
did little to move the Arabs closer to a
unified approach to the Geneva peace con-
ference.
Sadat almost certainly did not resolve the
problem of Palestine Liberation Organization repre-
sentation at the conference. It is doubtful that
he obtained either Palestinian acquiescence in, or
Syrian support for, a formula that would permit other
Arab delegations at Geneva to speak for the PLO.
In fact, Sadat angered the Palestinians by publicly
deriding those who refuse to recognize Israel.
Terming the destruction of Israel a "myth," Sadat
said at a Kuwait press conference that Israel is
"an existing reality" whose 1967 borders cannot be
touched.
This was the first time Sadat has so explicitly
stated Egypt's recognition of Israel before an Arab
audience. The statement outraged the Palestinian
community in Kuwait, and reportedly prompted a de-
mand that the PLO dissociate itself from Sadat.
In several public statements during
his trip, Sadat even implied concern that the con-
ference might never, be convened because of the PLO's
continued refusal to compromise on its conditions
for attending.
Little is known of Sadat's discussions in
Syria
Ambassador Murphy's negative assess-
ment of the visit is not so sweeping, but he con-
firms that the Syrians underscored the distance
separating them from Sadat. His sources say that
Asad was pessimistic that the Arabs would derive
(continued)
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anything positive from the Salzburg talks and re-
served his option to criticize the whole approach
if no forward motion results from US-Egyptian dis-
cussions.
Syria's decision to extend the UN observer
force's mandate to November 30, conveyed to Secre-
tary General Waldheim yesterday, in fact, is a de-
liberate move by Asad to divorce his diplomacy from
that of Sadat.
Asad's action will have the effect of reducing
the threat of combined Arab military action against
Israel, if no diplomatic progress has been made by
the time the Egyptian disengagement agreement with
Israel expires in July. It should help reduce the
tension created by recent Syrian and Jordanian mili-
tary redeployments along Israel's northern front.
The six-month extension will free Asad to pur-
sue his quarrel against Iraq.
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FRANCE-NATO
President Giscard announced yester-
day that he had accepted the invitation
of Belgian King Baudouin to attend the
dinner to be held for the national lead-
ers participating in the NATO summit in
Brussels on May 29 and 30.
France will still be represented at the talks
themselves by Foreign Minister Sauvagnargues.
By treating the NATO summit as "just another
ministerial" meeting, Giscard will be able to assure
domestic opponents of NATO that he remains unflinch-
ing in his opposition to the summit. But by attend-
ing the informal dinner himself, he will be able to
reap the benefits of consulting directly with other
national leaders.
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EIAARCATION
?N. LINE
UTH
HA
IETNAM
1 Predominairtly Comm nist-controlled' area,
February / 3 ceasefire
MILES 1 100
,557932 5-75
CXMBODIA
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LAOS
Demonstrators reportedly began
leaving the main AID compound in Vien-
tiane this morning.
The demonstrators may be leaving in reaction
to an announcement by coalition government spokes-
men that AID offices in the provinces will be closed
and that the AID organization will be "dissolved
after negotiations are held."
The release of the 12 Americans who have been
held under "voluntary" house arrest by demonstrators
in Savannakhet for nearly a week is expected shortly.
Neutralist Interior Minister Pheng Phongsavan and
his Pathet Lao deputy, Deuane Sonnarath, were sched-
uled to fly to Savannakhet yesterday. The Americans
are to accompany Pheng and Deuane back to Vientiane.
The Pathet Lao are continuing to tighten their
grip on the coalition government. Deuane Sonnarath
and his communist colleague, Information Minister
Souk Vongsak, have announced sweeping personnel
changes in their respective ministries that effec-
tively remove nearly a dozen non-communist officials
from security, propaganda, and news media positions.
Most will probably be replaced by Pathet Lao person-
nel or communist sympathizers.
The Pathet Lao, under the authority of Vien-
tiane's joint police force, have also announced
stringent new regulations governing domestic travel
by Lao citizens and foreigners; all Chinese, Viet-
namese, and Cambodians have been flatly prohibited
from leaving the country.
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NOTES
The assassination in Iran on Wednesday of two
members of the US military advisory group was ap-
parently the work of an extremist religious group,
the People's Strugglers.
The attack apparently was designed to embarrass
the regime on the day the Shah returned from his
heavily publicized visit to the US. The People's
Strugglers reflect the feelings of those conserva-
tive religious elements in Iran who deplore the
growth of Western, non-Muslim influences and the
diminished power of traditional religious leaders
that has resulted from the Shah's program of land
and social reform. They regard the Shah as a "tool
of foreign interests," and they collaborate with
radical Marxist groups. The terrorists have not
generated public support, and the attack on the US
citizens does not indicate a change in generally
favorable public sentiments toward American military
aid to Iran or Americans in general; the US commu-
nity in Iran numbers 16,000.
The Panamanian government is seeking reassur-
ances that the US still wants an early conclusion
of a new canal treaty.
Although General Torrijos and President Lakas
recently reaffirmed in public their faith in the
outcome of the negotiations, they are planning a
public relations and action campaign in case nego-
tiations falter.
(continued)
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North Korean President Kim Il-song may try to
reenlist Romania's good offices in communicating
with Washington during his current visit to Bucha-
rest.
The Romanians have in the past assisted Pyong-
yang's efforts to engage the US in direct discussion
of Korean military issues. On a personal level, the
visit will reinforce the special rapport between Kim
and Ceausescu. Romania is the socialist country
most admired by North Korea. Kim reportedly is
scheduled to go on to Yugoslavia and Algeria, visits
which will probably focus on promoting North Korea's
relations with the Third World in anticipation of
the nonaligned conference in Peru this summer and
UN General Assembly consideration of the Korean
question this fall.
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Dakar
SPANISH SAHARA
MAURITANIA
ATLANTIC OCEAR
100
AMBtA
Gttlyik_-_TSSAU
MALI
0
0 C;
00
IVORY
COAST
LIBERIA
200 300
Statute Miles
Ic
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Top Secret
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