THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 9 APRIL 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014767
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: April 9, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
April 9, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
April 9, 1975
Table of Contents:
Vietnam: New instructions to communist cadre in
South Vietnam call for a continuation of the
present offensive until "total victory" is
achieved this year. (Page 1)
Cambodia: Prime Minister Long Boret returned to
Phnom Penh yesterday with no prospects for an
immediate political solution or a cease-fire.
Communist forces launched new attacks on the
east bank of the Mekong River. (Page 3)
Syria-Egypt: Relations are further strained over
Sadat' s efforts to reconvene the Geneva con-
ference. (Page 5)
Cyprus: The last hurdle has been cleared to reopen-
ing the Cyprus intercommunal talks. (Page 7)
Greece-Turkey: The two countries remain at logger-
heads over the Aegean. (Page 8)
Notes: USSR; Japan; USSR-India; Spain; NATO
(Pages 9 and 10)
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VIETNAM
New instructions to communist cadre
in South Vietnam call for a continuation
of the present offensive until "total
victory" is achieved this year,
The new orders,
issued on April 3, bring up to date an
earlier document, which had indicated
that victory was not anticipated until
1976.
The instructions leave little room for politi-
cal solution to the conflict. Talk of negotiations
or the formation of a tripartite coalition will be
used "merely as stratagems."
the orders maintain that "the most opportune
moment for the communist side has arrived" and that
attacks to "liberate" Tay Ninh, Hau Nghia and Binh
Duong provinces will be conducted this month.
The communists may now be moving into position
for such attacks. They currently have eight divi-
sions in military regions 3 and 4; at least four of
them are positioned in an arc north of Saigon and
the others are threatening population centers and
supply routes in the delta.
The North Vietnamese 5th Division has pulled
back from the Moc Hoa battlefront in the northern
delta and may join units of the 3rd Division along
the Cambodian border to prepare for fighting in Hau
Nghia and Tay Ninh provinces. North of Saigon, the
9th Division has observed radio silence for the past
few days, and South Vietnamese officials fear that
it is moving closer to the capital. The 6th, 7th,
and 341st divisions pose a threat northeast of the
capital. The 341st has arrived in the area only re-
cently from North Vietnam. Two divisions in the
central highlands show signs of shifting toward Sai-
gon. They could move into Military Region 3 in a
matter of days.
The communists could shift additional combat
units to the south from central South Vietnam. They
probably will need to keep a large force in the
northern two thirds of the country, however, to
eliminate pockets of South Vietnamese resistance and
establish firm control over the population.
(continued)
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Radio direction-finding indicates that two
North Vietnamese reserve divisions have shifted
toward the Demilitarized Zone from Thanh Hoa. They
appear to be following in the tracks of another di-
vision which is in northern South Vietnam. All
three belong to the North Vietnamese Army 1st Corps,
which is moving south; its headquarters was recently
spotted near the Demilitarized Zone. A fourth divi-
sion--also subordinate to the 1st Corps and last
noted in the Hanoi area--shows signs of moving.
The most likely destination for these combat units
is in provinces around Saigon; they could reach the
Saigon area in about a month.
These communist moves, together with the heavy
losses sustained by the government since early
March, add up to an irreversible shift in the stra-
tegic balance in South Vietnam. In comparison, the
South Vietnamese have only seven infantry divisions,
together with rangers, territorials, and the rem-
nants of three divisions extracted from the northern
part of the country. The government is now reor-
ganizing these units and preparing them for combat.
On the political front, South Vietnamese Prime
Minister Nguyen Ba Can
hopes to have a new cabinet by this weekend.
it would include members of the civilian
opposition, although he was having dif-
ficulty persuading Buddhist and Catholic groups to
participate.
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CAMBODIA
Cambodian Prime Minister Long
Boret returned to Phnom Penh yester-
day and told Ambassador Dean there-
are no prospects for an immediate
political solution or a cease-fire.
In-Bangkok,-Boret met Prince Sihanouk's son,
Norodom Yuvaneath, who said Sihanouk "will not ne-
gotiate" and suggested that his father be invited
back to Phnom Penh, presumably to restore'the mon-
archy. Boret could not agree to this on his own
authority; he instead emphasized that his govern-
ment desired an, early political solution in which
Sihanouk would play the key role./
In-Indonesia, Boret obtained Jakarta's help
in interceding with Sihanouk through 'Algerian
Foreign-Minister Bouteflika. Boret said Bouteflika
had also agreed to help and that if the slightest
encouragement from Sihanouk were forthcoming, Boret
would be available immediately to work out the_de
tails.
Sihanouk publicly denied yesterday that any
"authorized representative" had met Boret in Bang-
kok. He earlier criticized Indonesian President
Suharto for "meddling" with the Cambodian situation.
In his conversation with Ambassador' Dean,Boret
also discussed evacuation plans in-the event of a
collapse in the defense of Phnom Penh. Two days
earlier, Cambodian President Koy- also asked Dean
about the evacuation of Khmer leaders under such
circumstances.- The ambassador told both officials
that.some.space would be available aboard US air-
craft, but that he was not in a position to deter-
mine who or how many could be accommodated.
(continued)
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Phnom Penh
Gap in defense line
Tuol
Leap.
Prey Veng
Neak Luong
Government defense line
557650 4-75 CIA
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Khmer communist forces launched new attacks
against government units on the east bank of the
Mekong River near Phnom Penh yesterday. Fighting
on the more important battlefronts north and west
of the city was limited to inconclusive shellings
and skirmishes. Shelling attacks against Pochentong
airport also slackened, although the proportion of
artillery rounds to the less accurate rockets in-
creased.
Intercepted messages reveal that the communists
are scouring outlying battlefields for more howitzer
ammunition and that communist units are beginning
to move toward Phnom Penh from a number of widely
separated provinces. The deployments are occurring
slowly, however, and it is apparent that many units
will not arrive in the capital area before next
week.
In the countryside, stiff fighting continued
yesterday around the southwestern provincial capital
of Kompong Speu. Several positions just outside
the town are isolated. In the southeast, the commu-
nists are keeping steady pressure on the defensive
perimeter around the provincial capital of Prey
Veng, but government units there appear to be hold-
ing their own.
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SYRIA-EGYPT
Relations between Damascus and Cairo
have come under greater strain. The Syr-
ians, who had welcomed the breakdown of
Egyptian-Israeli negotiations, now are
angry with President Sadat for seeking to
reconvene the Geneva peace conference.
They suspect that Sadat is still trying
to obtain a separate Sinai disengagement
agreement, and they cite as evidence
Sadat's unilateral extension of the UN
mandate in the Sinai and his pledge to
reopen the Suez Canal.
Sadat's call for a return to Geneva is a ploy to
buy Cairo more time to pursue indirect negotiations
with the Israelis. Sadat's
decision to reopen the Suez Canal on June 5 was a
tip-off that Cairo has no intention of letting the
UN observer forces' mandate in the Sinai expire in
late July. Sadat might already
have a "deal with the Israelis in his pocket."
The Syrian President
irked at Sadat for assuming to speak for
all the Arabs in calling for a resumption of the
Geneva talks and inviting members of the UN Security
Council to participate. The Syrians gave
the clear impression that Damascus
had been caught flat-footed by Sadat's recent ac-
tions and did not know what tack to take next.
Sadat's tendency to act unilaterally has long fed
Syrian distrust and dislike of the Egyptian Presi-
dent.
The Syrians have yet to say anything publicly
about Sadat's moves. After calling for the resump-
tion of the Geneva talks for so long, they are
hardly in a position to criticize Sadat. Instead,
they have vented their frustrations largely at the
US. The controlled press has attacked US Middle
East policy and expressed strong skepticism that a
US policy reassessment will lead to any real change
in Washington's approach to negotiations.
(continued)
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The Syrian press also has lately demanded a
prior commitment from Israel-to withdraw to the 1967
borders and recognize the legitimate rights of the
Palestinians before the Geneva conference is recon-
vened. Asad is said to have told King Husayn that
he does, not want to go to Geneva simply to watch
the Egyptians and Israelis sign another disengage-.
ment_accord. For the present, Asad said, Syria
takes the position that it would go to Geneva only
if. the other parties were ready to discuss an over-
all, final settlement.
The Syrian leader somewhat surprisingly played
down the importance of his proposal for a joint
Syrian - Palestine Liberation Organization command.
Although Asad reportedly said that he doubted the
PLO would follow through on his offer because it
would mean the subordination of the PLO, we believe
he will continue to advocate more formal Syrian-
Palestinian ties simply because he seems to have
few other ways at present of influencing Cairo.
Asad nevertheless is unlikely to want to go it
alone, and he probably sees no alternative to trying
to work with Egypt to obtain his objectives. His
government's actions over the next few months are
likely to be aimed, at least in part, at trying to
fence in Sadat and to force him to coordinate his
moves more closely with the Syrians.
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CYPRUS
The last hurdle to reopening the
Cyprus intercommunal talks in Vienna late
this month has been cleared. Rauf Denk-
tash, leader of the Turkish Cypriot sec-
tor, announced yesterday that agreement
had been reached on the role of the UN
Secretary General and the venue of the
talks and that he--Denktash--would act
as the Turkish Cypriot negotiator in
at least the first sessions. Secretary
General Waldheim will play no substantive
role in the talks, but may assist on
subjects agreed on by the negotiators.
The talks are scheduled to be held April 28
through May 2, providing little time to reach agree-
ment on the sensitive issues to be discussed. The
talks may continue in Vienna at a lower level after
May 2, or could be transferred back to Nicosia.
Clerides' role as the negotiator for the Greek
Cypriots is clouded as a result of a dispute with
Archbishop Makarios over negotiating strategy.
Clerides has been sharply attacked by the pro-
Makarios press and political groups after a speech
he gave last week setting out the realities of the
situation as he saw them.
He argued that a bizonal federation, as desired
by the Turks, would probably offer the Greek Cypriots
the best opportunity to regain some of the territory
lost last summer and to achieve strong guarantees
for the future. He also took issue with the concept
of a "long-term struggle," a phrase used by Makarios,
which Clerides feels is tactically poor and likely
to freeze the Turkish position.
Clerides himself is not above using the threat
of resignation as a tactic, perhaps in an effort to
gain assurances of support that will tie Makarios,
and possibly the Greek government, to the unpopular
concessions Clerides will have to make to obtain a
settlement. Reports have already surfaced that
Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis has asked Clerides
to stay on.
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GREECE-TURKEY
Greece and Turkey are still at
loggerheads over the Aegean; each side
is maintaining that its actions are
justified because of a threat from the
other.
A high Greek Foreign Ministry official has
admitted to the US embassy that his government has
sent military forces, including aircraft, to the
Dodecanese and other Aegean islands in contraven-
tion of international treaty. He said Turkish
leaders had repeatedly made threatening statements
about the islands.
The official said that Greece could not allow
more Turkish overflights, which he claimed caused
panic among the civilian population and created un-
certainties which had economic implications through-
out Greece, such as bank withdrawals, hoarding,
and discouragement of tourists.
The Turks view Greek fortification of the is-
lands as clear provocation. Turkish Foreign Minis-
ter Caglayangil told the US embassy on Monday that
Ankara simply cannot have "armed aircraft carriers"
so close to its shores. He said that it was essen-
tial for Turkey to monitor the situation.
The Turkish government yesterday again denied
that it had violated Greek air space and publicly
charged Greece with a military buildup on the is-
lands. It said that Turkish aircraft will continue
to fly over the Aegean in accordance with the rights
given it by international law.
The Greeks believe that the Turks are trying
to intimidate them, as well as to establish a de
facto role for the Turkish armed forces in the
Aegean.
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NOTES
Moscow
Japanese Foreign Minister Kiichi Miyazawa, who
arrives in Washington today, will be primarily in-
terested in discussing Middle Eastern issues and
the possibility of another Arab oil embargo.
In connection with developments on Indochina,
Miyazawa may seek Secretary Kissinger's views on
Japan's support of Thai and Indonesian efforts to
broker a Cambodian settlement. The foreign minis-
ter probably will also seek a reaffirmation of US
security commitments in Japan. For Tokyo this
subject is linked to the problem of nuclear weapons
on visiting US warships. Despite some differences
of opinion with us, Miyazawa comes as a long-time
friend and supporter of the US-Japanese alliance.
Moreover, with the Miki government still uncertain
of its political strength and facing important lo-
cal elections, the foreign minister will try to
avoid any indication that Japan's relations with a
major ally are not in good order.
The USSR reportedly agreed to supply $500 mil-
lion worth ofmilitary equipment to India during
Soviet Defense Minister Grechko's February visit.
This would be the largest agreement ever con-
cluded between the two countries, amounting to
about one third of total Soviet military commitments
to India since the aid program began in the early
1960s. Such an agreement underscores Moscow's
commitment to maintain India's military preponder-
ance on the sub-continent. The bulk of the equip-
ment is naval, including three large combat ships.
Ground force equipment includes tanks, artillery,
and SA-6 and SA-7 surface-to-air missiles. New
Delhi probably did not make any political or mili-
tary concessions during Grechko's visit, such as
endorsing Moscow's Asian collective security scheme
or granting base rights to the Soviet navy.
(continued)
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Prince Juan Carlos is becoming increasingly
concerned over the problems Spain will face unless
Franco can be persuaded soon to initiate the trans-
fer of power.
In a recent conversation with Ambassador Rivero
and Senator Scott, Juan Carlos spoke with intensity
of the mounting desire in Spain for Franco to step
down. The Prince expressed confidence in the full
support of the army and said that many officers
wanted an early transfer of power. He noted in pass-
ing, however, that some younger officers have a
tendency to favor the communist-inspired Democratic
Junta--a coalition of illegal, largely leftist,
opposition parties. We have no evidence, however,
of significant sympathy among younger officers for
the Democratic Junta, although these officers are
increasingly interested in politics. Juan Carlos
made a strong plea for US understanding and support,
especially in the area of relations with other Euro-
peans. He also said he hoped the US could help the
Spanish armed forces with equipment.
A majority of the NATO representatives have
reacted favorably to the idea of a conference of
heads of government in connection with a regular
meeting of NATO foreign ministers on May 29 and 30
in Brussels.
The representatives, meeting in Brussels yes-
terday, agreed to consult their governments and
convey the response to NATO's Secretary General by
April 15. The US representative thinks that Cana-
dian Prime Minister Trudeau is likely to be the
only dissenter among the heads of state.
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