THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 APRIL 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014763
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: April 4, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
April 4, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification uhedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
April 4; 1975
Table of Contents
South Vietnam: President Thieu appears to be mov-
ing to thwart any attempt to arrange his ouster.
(Page 1)
Cambodia: Khmer communist attacks late on Wednes-
? day forced government units to abandon posi-
tions on Phnom Penh's northern defenses.
? (Page 3) ?
Israel: Prime Minister Rabin has expressed strong
interest in bilateral discussions with Egypt
before a Geneva conference reconvenes. (Page 4)
USSR - Middle East: Soviet officials are not so
eager for an early reconvening of the Geneva
conference now that it is a real prospect.
(Page 6)
Greece-Turkey: The likelihood of a serious incident
in the Aegean Sea is growing. (Page 7)
Cyprus: Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders have
agreed to resume their interrupted peace talks
on April 25 in Vienna, (Page 8)
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NORTH
YIETNA
108 110
Demilitarized Zone
Oa Nang.
MR 1
Tonle
Sap
THAILAND
CAMBODIA
Mekong Nha Trang
Cam Ranh
MR 3
10
Can Capital Special Zone
? 10?
Phan Rang
MR 2
South
China
Sea
16?
14?
12?
Gulf of
Thailand
104
557613 4-75
MR 4
106
98
2
MILES
90
11.0
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SOUTH VIETNAM
President Thieu is acting to thwart
moves to arrange his ouster, but pres-
sure for his resignation is certain to
grow.
The maneuvering against Thieu is being spear-
headed by Senate president Tran Van Lam and former
vice president Ky. This morning, a former presi-
dential adviser identified with the Ky-Lam group
and several other lesser figures were arrested.
Thieu earlier had requested Lam to make pro-
posals for the reorganization of the government.
Lam, armed with a unanimous Senate vote expressing
no confidence in Thieu and calling for a change in
leadership, is moving far ahead of what the presi-
dent had in mind.
Lam proposed that the current government be
replaced by a new "executive council" headed by
former vice president Ky and including Lam and
other "elders in politics and the army." Thieu
miaht continue to occupy the presidency in a figure-
head capacity, but Lam is suggesting that Thieu's
resignation and complete withdrawal from the po-
litical scene would be preferable.
Lam's plan has the support of Ky and some
senior officers such as General Vien, the chairman
of the Joint General Staff. A major question, how-
ever, is whether or not KY can command support among
senior troop commanders, who would have to back a
move against Thieu if it is to be successful. Ky
himself does not appear to be totally confident on
this score. In a conversation yesterday with an
American official, Ky maintained that Thieu is un-
likely to step down voluntarily, and that his re-
moval will occur only after strong pressure is brought
to bear from the South Vietnamese military or from
the US.
There have been no further serious setbacks
for the South Vietnamese in the past 24 hours, but
small-scale communist attacks have been increasing
in both the provinces near Saigon and in the delta.
(continued)
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Although action in the delta has been low in intens-
ity, most of it is concentrated on the outer de-
fenses of Can Tho city and adjacent military com-
plexes which regional officials believe to be a
priority target for the communists.
Saigon, meanwhile, is taking some steps it
hopes may shore up the combat effectiveness and
morale of the armed forces. A nine-point program
has been prepared by the Joint General Staff and
may soon be implemented. Among the steps to be
taken is the reorganization of all ranger groups
into three infantry divisions, the reassembling of
armor units for the general reserve, the integra-
tion of all territorial forces into the army, and
reformation of units that have been evacuated from
the northern provinces.
In Military Region 2, the North Vietnamese
still have not occupied Nha Trang in force and some
remnants of government units remained at Cam Ranh
airport as of late Wednesday. Several hundred ma-
rines, airborne troopers, and remnants of other
army units have been filtering down to Phan Rang
and are assembling on the town's airstrip.
North Vietnamese helicopters have been noted
flying into Hue and Da Nang during the past few
days. Communications from these aircraft suggest
that passengers, including VIPs, are being flown
into South Vietnam. It is likely that North Viet-
namese civil cadre are being brought in to cope
with numerous problems of organizing the civilian
administration.
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CAMBODIA: Phnom Penh Area
erftl
V
%
Dike-____
'f?-? 6 f N
1) (4
0- 4
Tuol Leap. ? PHNOM
Government
defense un.
4
? Ti.
4ochpnto
AirportAC
Neak
Luong
Of.
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CAMBODIA
Khmer communist attacks late on Wed-
nesday forced government units to abandon
positions on the dike that has formed part
of Phnom Penh's northern defenses. Coun-
terattacking government troops yesterday
regained some ground in this area but not
the dike itself. Inconclusive fighting
continued on most other battlefronts
around the capital.
Intercepted messages indicate that the commu-
nists captured a number of 105-mm. howitzers at
Banam and Neak Luong on Tuesday and that insurgent
forces along the lower Mekong have begun moving to-
ward Phnom Penh.
Communist gunners fired over 20 rockets at
Phnom Penh's Pochentong Airport yesterday. US air-
lift operations were not affected, but two Khmer
air force aircraft were destroyed. The air force's
steady losses are being reflected in a much reduced
level of tactical sorties, and in declining morale.
Even if the airport remains open, funding for
ammunition and airlift flights themselves will be
exhausted shortly after. midmonth. Ammunition stocks
in Phnom Penh will not last through the month and
certain types of ammunition will begin running out
in two weeks.
Ambassador Dean reported yesterday that he and
his staff believe that the government's military po-
sition will collapse completely within 48 hours to
a week. They based their judgment on the movement
of additional communist units toward Phnom Penh and
the likelihood of increased artillery attacks against
the city and the airport.
Although government officials and senior army
officers are continuing to function normally, US
defense attaches have noted a deterioration of mo-
rale and a mood of resignation among units in the
field. Ambassador Dean also reported that the gen-
eral population in Phnom Penh has remained calm
only because it is ignorant of the true state of
affairs.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ISRAEL
Prime Minister Rabin expressed
strong interest in bilateral discus-
sions with Egypt before resumption of
the Geneya conference during a long
broadcast 1,nterview he gave on Wednes-
day. He gave little indication, how-
ever, that Tel Aviv is prepared to take
the initiative or t6 be very flexible.
Rabin acknowledged there is little chance that
discussions at Geneva can be successful unless "suf-
ficient" preparations are made. Egypt, he thought,
was keeping all its options open, including the
possibility of bilateral talks with Israel. The
recent indirect negotiations through Secretary
Kissinger, he .claimed, clearly demonstrated that
direct contacts would be better because they re-
duced the chances of "misunderstandings."
The Prime Minister emphasized that the basis
of Tel Aviv's negotiating position remains as ex-
pressed in last month's talks. There are three
main Israeli proposals:
--A separate Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty
based on an Israeli withdrawal from most of
the Sinai.
--A broad interim agreement based on an Israeli
withdrawal east of the Gidi and Mitla passes
and the Sinai oil fields in return for termina-
tion of the state of war.?
--A limited agreement based on a withdrawal
from the oil fields and only the western end
of the passes in return for an Egyptian "under-
taking" not to use force to solve its conflict
with Israel.
Although Rabin claimed Israel would not change
these proposals, he did hint at flexibility by say-
ing that they contained a wide range of "nuances."
He said a detailed discussion of these could lead
to progress toward peace. Reflecting an attitude
(continued)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
that has long colored Israel's approach to the
Middle East conflict, Rabin reiterated that Israel
could only negotiate from a position of strength.
He argued that, the government must proceed slowly
under present circumstances because, he claimed,
Israel's willingness to negotiate in the wake of
Egypt's recent rejection of Tel Aviv's proposals
could be interpreted by the Arabs as a sign of
weakness.
Rabin expressed confidence that US disappoint-
ment with the lack of results in last month's nego-
tiations would not adversely affect US-Israeli re-
lations over the long term. He suggested that the
unhappiness of some US administration "officials"
with Israel was perhaps partly attributable to
their desire for a Middle East agreement to com-
?
pensate for problems in "other spheres and areas."
The Prime Minister drew on his long experience as
ambassador to Washington to judge that the US pub-
lic is aware of Israel's unique situation.
Rabin's remarks, as well as numerous press
articles highlighting Israel's desire for pre-
Geneva talks, have already drawn the ire of Israel's
conservatives, who detect a possible softening of
the Israeli negotiating position worked out last
month. One commentator with goodS contacts among
senior conservatives in Rabin's Labor Party yes-
terday pointedly asserted that Rabin was speaking
only for himself.
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USSR - MIDDLE EAST
Soviet officials still formally
support an early reconvening of the
Middle East peace conference, but a
strong note of caution has crept into
their comments now that this has be-
come a real prospect.
In part, this attitude can be traced to the
Soviets' surprise over the sudden breakdown in the
disengagement talks. Even up to the last days of
Secretary Kissinger's mission, Soviet officials
talked as though they expected the peace confer-
ence to be held after the parties had reached fur-
ther agreements.
Beyond their surprise, however, the Soviets
are clearly suspicious that the US will continue
to dominate the negotiations. Their apprehension
can only have grown when both Israel and Egypt
recently suggested that the US could go on medi-
ating outside of Geneva.
The Soviets must be chagrined by Cairo's re-
cent pronouncements indicating that Geneva is not
the only negotiating avenue, and by its invita-
tions to the UK, France, Yugoslavia, and India to
participate in the conference. The Soviets have
probably been disabused of any notion that the dis-
engagement breakdown would cause Egypt to be more
amenable to Soviet views.
Another thorny problem for Moscow is the ques-
tion of Palestinian representation. Moscow has ap-
peared hopeful that,a Syrian-Palestinian command
might provide a way out of its commitment.to par-
ticipation of the Palestinians at some stage in
the conference.
In addition to tactical problems, the Soviets
must be wary of the implications of a failure at
Geneva. Having invested substantial capital in
the idea that Geneva provides the only solution
to the Arab-Israeli problem, they probably foresee
considerable damage to their prestige if the con-
ference fails.
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GREECE-TURKEY
The likelihood of a serious incident
in the Aegean Sea is growing as Greece
and Turkey appear increasingly ready to
risk confrontation to back up their con-
flicting claims in the area.
Our embassy in Athens has been informed by the
Greek government that two Turkish aircraft violated
Greek airspace yesterday, while another 18 Turkish
planes flew a patrol nearby. Greek aircraft in the
area were ordered by higher authorities not to en-
gage the Turkish planes. Antiaircraft batteries on-
the islands opened fire, but apparently were not ef-
fective.
The-Turks, meanwhile, reportedly are planning-
to "take strong retaliatory action" to any Greek at-
tempts to intercept Turkish aircraft
The Turks are said
to be. locating Greek military concentrations in or-
der to retaliate with bombings if the Greeks open
fire on Turkish planes.
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CYPRUS
Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders
apparently have agreed to resume their
interrupted peace talks on April 25 in
Vienna.
Initial press announcements did not state who
would participate in the talks, but Rauf Denktash
and Glafkos derides probably will at least open
the negotiations. Denktash, who now holds the po-
sition of president of the recently proclaimed Turk-
ish federated state of Cyprus, may be replaced with
an individual of lesser stature. This would suit
Cypriot President Makarios, who would like to be
able in turn to replace Clerides.,_whom he has crit-
icized as too lenient a negotiator.
The Turks, who had previously balked at an
active role for UN Secretary General Waldheim, have
agreed to let him participate in the first week of
the negotiations.
Greek Prime:Minister Karamanlis remains anx-
ious'to get the Cyprus problem behind him., and
would probably show some flexibility if the Turks
were willing to withdraw from some areas they now
hold. The Greek Cypriots continue to hope that
the cutoff of US military aid to Turkey will make
the Turks more amenable to concessions.
Although there is a.consensus in Ankara that
territorial concessions are necessary, the US em-
bassy in Nicosia reports indications that .theTurks
continue to move toward a de facto separation of
the two communities-on the island.- The Turks have
now settled virtually all of the migrants from the
south, in former Greek villages in the north, and
are in the process of making the north self-suffi-
cient in such thingsas electrical power.
A Turkish Cypriot :constitution--drafted in
mainland Turkey--was completed on March 26 and has
been forwarded to the island's Turkish Cypriot con-
stituent-assembly for approval. The draft consti- -
tution provides all the accoutrements: of an inde-
pendent state; the only concession to the Greek
Cypriots is an admission that the constitution may
be amended "when the constitution of the federal
Republic of Cyprus is put into force."
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Top Secret
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