THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 25 FEBRUARY 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014730
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: February 25, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
February 25, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( 1
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
February 25, 1975
Table of Contents ?
Greece: The armed forces were placed on alert yes-
terday because of alleged conspiratorial ac-
tivity by officers linked to the former junta.
(Page 1)
Cyprus: The Turkish Cypriot constituent assembly
yesterday began deliberations on a new consti-
tution. (Page 2)
USSR-China: Soviet spokesmen continue to say that
there is little hope for progress in the bor-
der negotiations. (Page 3)
Iran-Pakistan: The Shah began a three-day visit to
Pakistan yesterday. (Page 4)
Turkey: We present the principal conclusions of
an Interagency Intelligence Memorandum on
Turkey After the US Arms Cutoff. (Page 5)
Ethiopia: There were no reports of significant
fighting yesterday. (Page 7)
Notes: Cambodia; USSR (Grechko visit); USSR
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; USSR (MIG-23) (Pages 8 and 9) 25X1
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GREECE
The armed forces were placed on
alert yesterday because of what the gov-
ernment termed conspiratorial activity
by officers linked to the former junta.
A spokesman announced that the government
was in full control and that there was no
cause for concern.
Minister of Defense Averoff told Ambassador
Kubisch privately that the coup plotting was not
too serious, but that it was prudent for him to
act as if it were. He said severe measures would
be taken to deal with what he described as "crazy
young people" within the army. Press reports indi-
cate that 31.aux_o_fliztuz..the highest in rank a
brigadier general, have been arrested. One, Major
Athanassios Perdikis, a close associate of former
strongman Dimitrios Ioannidis, has been reported
to have been involved in a
coup this week.
plot to launch a
The government has been moving cautiously to
purge the army of supporters of the. deposed junta,
but junior officers are concerned that the dis-
missals will be more widespread. The principal
aim of the plotters appears to be the removal of
Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis. The junior of-
ficers .fault Raraman)ts for his ailure to curb
press_ attacks ilizaon
0S,___tha-gMA1-1 divided Commgairly, and his
withdrawal p eze from military participation
in 0.
This latest example of military unrest should
be useful to individuals like Averoff, who have
been trying to convince the press and opposition
politicians that they should temper their attacks
on the army.
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CYPRUS
The Turkish Q.22:1,2s constituent
assembly ydsstiFday began deliberations
on (27,2.f222,11to be completed
within 45 days and then submitted for
popular approval in a referendum.
A high Turkish Cypriot official told the US am-
bassador last week that the outline of the constitu-
tion was ,11.1;_t_ils..2_a_n_sl_provides for a strorlg
presideati.a1_ayatg,m. The official believes that two
parties--one supporting Rauf Denktash and one op-
posed to him--will contest the elections scheduled
to follow the referendum.
According to the official, Ankara is pressing
Denktash to give up his role as negotiator for the
Turkish Cypriots in future intercommunal talks. An-
kara maintains that RaatAah,:,A,.44_position
dent of the Turkish Federated Statgof Cyprag makes
it improper for him to participate in negotiations
with Greek Cypriot negotiator Clerides who holds a
lower official position.
The UN Security Council deliberations suggest
that agreement may be reached on a change of venue
for the talks and their possible expansion to in-
clude Greek and Turkish representatives as well as
other participants. Such a move would lessen the
impact of Denktash's non-participation if he gives
up his role as negotiator.
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USSR-CHINA
Soviet spokesmen continue to take
the Zine that there is little hope for
progress in the Sino-Soviet border nego-
tiations at Peking.
In conversations with US officials in Peking
late last week, Soviet Ambassador Tolstikov and his
deputy were at pains to deemphasize the importance
of the return to China of the head of the Soviet
border delegation, Deputy Foreign Minister Ilichev.
They said that Ilichev, who had not been in Peking
for six months, returns from time to time to see if
China has any new proposals.
The chief Chinese negotiator's recent departure
to attend the coronation in Nepal is another sign
that the talks are not going very far very fast.
Soviet attacks on the Chinese National People's
Congress have been persistent and wide-ranging, and
two editorials in Pravda this month have stressed
the theme of Maoist hostility toward the USSR and
have gone so far as to say that the Chinese leaders
are actively promoting a nuclear war between the
US and the USSR.
The Soviets are obviously worried about the
possibility of improved Chinese relations with the
US and Western Europe. In a lengthy article by a
leading Soviet sinologist, which appeared in the
January issue of the Soviet journal USA, the author
attacked those in the US who seek closer relations
with China and deplored what he perceived as ef-
forts by the US to exploit Sino-Soviet differences
for its own benefit.
? The article seems to blur, although it does
not totally eliminate, the usual Soviet distinction
between the anti-detente (and pro-China) forces in
the US and the US government. It suggests that the
Soviets are concerned about the consequences of
your projected trip to China.
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Tehran
Afghanistan
Pakistan
U.S.S.R.
Baluchi tribes
China
Kabul
North-
Wes
Fron
Afghanistan
Gilgit
A ? ency
Janu 4,_--Line of control
and
1, ashmir
Ayd Kashmir
Indian held
Kashmir
Punjab
Baluchistan
557368 2-75
a
200 - Province boundary
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IRAN-PAKISTAN
The Shah of Iran begins a three-day
visit to Pakistan today to reaffirm close
ties between the two countries and to dem-
onstrate his continued support for Prime
Minister Bhutto's government.
The Shah wants a politically stable neighbor
because he fears manipulation of Pakistan by the
Soviets, who already enjoy strong influence in In-
dia, Afghanistan, and Iraq. The Iranian leader
wants Pakistan to control dissident minorities in
its frontier provinces. One of these provinces,
Baluchistan, borders on Iran, and Baluchis live on
both sides of the border. Iran has provided heli-
copters and C-130 transport aircraft to Pakistan
for use in meeting security problems in the prov-
ince.
Pakistan, for its part, is anxious to continue
receiving Iranian economic assistance. Islamabad
also wants to retain Iranian backing in its long-
standing quarrels with India and Afghanistan. In
this regard, Bhutto wants to be sure that improve-
ments last year in Tehran's relations with New
Delhi and Kabul do not signify any lessening of
support for Pakistan.
Iran last year committed around $600 million
in aid to Pakistan. A joint ministerial commission
on economic cooperation was created, cooperation
between the Iranian and Pakistani intelligence serv-
ices was increased, and Iran indicated a willing-
ness to help Pakistan obtain better tank engines.
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TURKEY
We present below the principal con-
clusions of an Interagency Intelligence
Memorandum on Turkey After the ' VS ' Arms
"Cutoff.
The Turks have no satisfactory alternative to
US supply of arms, at least over the near term.
Hence, the effectiveness of the Turkish armed forces
and their ability to perform their key role in NATO
will steadily deteriorate. The strategic implica-
tions of a protracted US cutoff could be profound,
particularly in view of Turkey's geographic position
anchoring NATO's southern flank and controlling So-
viet access to the Mediterranean.
Although the Turks are shocked and appalled at
the termination of US arms aid, their reaction thus
far has been measured and they will probably avoid
any rash response. If the arms cutoff continues,
it is highly likely that the Turks will retaliate
against the US in stages, including steps to cur-
tail US use of facilities in Turkey. This could
seriously weaken the ability of US forces--primarily
naval and air--to operate in the area as well as
jeopardize key intelligence collection programs.
Turkey's ties with NATO will also be damaged,
but probably not as seriously as Turkish relations
with the US. For at least the short term, much
will depend on whether Turkey is successful in ob-
taining military equipment from other NATO countries
to help compensate for the loss of US supply. If
those countries are able to help Ankara in this way,
moderate forces in Turkey will be strengthened and
the country's ties to Western Europe will probably
remain? strong.
If, on the other hand, the Turks conclude that
their basic military needs cannot be met by their
European allies, they are likely to read this as de
facto isolation from NATO and will react much more
strongly. In these circumstances, Turkey is likely
to explore alternative sources of support abroad--
from Arab states, for example--but will probably not
(continued)
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be able to satisfy its needs in this way. The re-
sults might be an inward-turning isolation and a re-
version to domestic conservatism which could spell
trouble for Turkey's economic health and its role in
southern Europe.
Turkey announced yesterday that its navy would
not participate in a Scheduled NATO naval exercise
this week
The Turks claimed that "technical reasons" had
forced their withdrawal from the exercise, but their
decision is more likely a further reaction to the
halt in US military assistance. Actions like this
allow Ankara to demonstrate pique over the aid cut-
off without seriously affecting Turkey's NATO rela-
tionship.
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ETHIOPIA
There were no reports of signif-
icant fighting between Ethiopian gov-
ernment forces and rebels in Eritrea
yesterday, although air force planes
continued to bomb suspected rebel posi-
tions northwest of Asmara.
The US embassy in Addis Ababa reports that,
despite the fighting in Eritrea and widespread
unrest in other parts of the country, the capital
remains reasonably well-policed and is not likely
to experience a general breakdown of law and order
in the near future. Residents, however, are tense
and fearful. This is particularly true of Eritreans
and Moslems, who fear they will become victims of
the ruling military council's psychological cam-
paign against Eritrean separatists and their Arab
supporters. Other residents are anticipating rebel
terrorist incidents in Addis Ababa in retaliation
against government military operations in Eritrea.
The council is attempting to streamline its
operations to deal more effectively with Ethiopia's
many problems. It voted on February 15 to elimi-
nate its subcommittees in the provinces and is
now considering the reduction of its own member-
ship from 120 to about 30. Major Mengistu Haile-
mariam, the council's first vice chairman, was
responsible for winning majority approval of these
decisions, despite opposition from other influential
members. Mengistu's success is another sign of his
strong position on the council.
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NOTES
The military action in Cambodia remains cen-
tered along the Mekong River and around Phnom Penh.
The government navy base at Neak Luong has been
the target of intense Khmer communist shelling in
the past few days, and several outposts along the
base's outer perimeter are under ground attack.
Communist attacks are also keeping government troops
pinned down at two beachheads along the lower Mekong.
The insurgents continue to fire rockets into
Phonm Penh's Pochentong airport, but have failed to
interrupt airlift operations. Although air deliv-
eries have so far been limited to ammunition, some
rice and fuel are scheduled to begin arriving late
this week. The fighting near the capital is south-
west of the airport and along the city's northwest-
ern defenses.
Soviet Defense Minister Grechko arrived in
New Delhi yesterday for a three-day visit during
which he will talk about new Soviet military aid
to India.
Grechko may also seek the use of Indian port
facilities for Soviet warships and of Indian air-
fields by Soviet aircraft for "space support mis-
sions." Soviet navy and air force commanders are
with Grechko. The Soviets may believe that the
Indians will be more receptive now that the US arms
embargo on the sale of arms to South Asia has been
lifted. The Indians have rejected Soviet requests
for military facilities in the past; we believe
they will be reluctant to reverse this policy.
(continued)
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Soviet deliveries of MIG-23s to Egypt under a
1973 arms agreement are continuing.
Four MIG-23s arrived aboard a Soviet freighter
on February 15, bringing to ten the number delivered
since early February when they were first introduced
into Egypt. A total of 24 aircraft are likely to be
delivered during the next few months.
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Top Secret
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