THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 18 MAY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007960
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 18, 1974

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012100010017-4
The President's Daily Brief
May 18, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5 B(11,12),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
May 18, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
India conducted an underground nuclear test this
morning. (Page 1)
Israeli aircraft yesterday attacked Palestinian guer-
rilla targets in Lebanon near Mount Hermon and in an
area south of Tyre. .(Page 2)
French officials are preparing for possible disorders
following Sunday's election, which is expected to be
very close. (Page 3)
Negotiations for a cease-fire between Lisbon and the
Portuguese Guinea insurgents will begin in London on
May 25. (Page 4)
Soviets
(Page 5)
The Lao Communists may try to use some allied pris-
oners as bargaining chips to exert pressure on the US
and Thailand. (Page 6)
At Annex, an interagency memo on the Arabian Peninsula
Persian Gulf concludes that recent events have in some
ways enhanced the stability of the area.
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INDIA
India carried out an underground nuclear test
this morning. Foreign Secretary Kewal Singh told
the US Charge in New Delhi that the test was of an
implosion device, detonated at a depth of over 100
meters in the Rajasthan desert in western India.
India has possessed for some time the technical
ability to undertake a nuclear test
Singh insisted today that the test was for
peaceful purposes. He said it was carried out to
keep India abreast of technology on uses of nuclear
energy for such purposes as mining and earth moving.
India has not signed the nuclear non-prolifera-
tion treaty, claiming that it discriminates against
non-nuclear powers and that they want to keep the
option open to conduct peaceful explosions. The
government is expected to announce the test publicly
later today.
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Palestinian Camps Attacked By Israeli Aircraft
Beirut
Mediterranean
/ yria
Karm Ar Ras ( k Israeli Line
/ I Aii#
? 1. //6Aunaitirev
-.......:-..--7--- ?-- r I"
-GOLANi? ,";
v
HEIGHTS, i
, Syrian Line
'Haifa Tiberias?..\
Nazareth
Lake
Tiberias
th67 Cease-
Fire Line
:Miles
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ISRAEL-LEBANUN-SYR I A
Israeli aircraft yesterday attacked Palestinian
guerrilla targets in Lebanon near Mount Hermon and in
an area south of Tyre. Military authorities in Da-
mascus claim that Syrian fighters intercepted Israeli
aircraft carrying out bombing missions in Lebanon and
shot down one of them.
reports
now available suggest that Thursday's air strikes in
Lebanon were conducted primarily against fedayeen
military targets or headquarters offices. There is
no evidence to indicate that Israeli planes systemat-
ically attempted to attack civilian installations.
Lebanon lodged a complaint with the UN yesterday
but has decided not to request a meeting of the Secu-
rity Council, so as not to create additional compli-
cations for Secretary Kissinger"
Fighting on the Syrian front was confined to
exchanges of tank, artillery, and mortar fire.
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FRANCE
French officials are preparing for the possibil-
ity of internal disorders following what is expected
to be a very close presidential election on Sunday.
The latest public opinion poll shows Giscard and Mit-
terrand tied, with about 12 percent undecided.
Interim President Poher is particularly concerned
over the possibility of leftist demonstrations if a
slim Mitterrand lead is overturned by late returns
from the overseas territories. There is a history of
voting irregularities in the overseas departments and
territories, which voted almost two to one for the
right in the first round on May 5. Poher is concerned
not only that electoral fraud might occur abroad, but
also that honest returns that give Giscard a slim vic-
tory could send leftists into the streets.
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PORTUGAL - PORTUGUESE GUINEA
Negotiations for a cease-fire between Lisbon and
the insurgent movement in Portuguese Guinea will be-
gin in London on May 25, according to an announcement
by the rebels' radio. The announcement is a major
breakthrough in the lengthy military stalemate in
the territory, and the chances for a cease-fire ap-
pear good.
The announcement follows by less than a week .a
rebel offer to negotiate on the condition that Lisbon ?
recognize the "right of independence" for the African
territories. A statement by Portuguese Foreign Minis-
ter Soares on May 16 that Lisbon would "loyally accept
all the consequences" of self-determination in Portu-
guese Guinea?implying acceptance of possible inde-
pendence--apparently was enough to meet that condition.
The two sides still have to work out the details
of Portuguese Guinea's future relationship with Lisbon.
Lisbon probably would not be averse to giving up the
territory because its political and economic interests
there are negligible. The manner in which this is
done is important to Portugal, however, because it
could seta precedentfor Lisbon's relations with
Angola and Mozambique where the Portuguese have prof-
itable interests.
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USSR
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LAOS
The Lao Communists may try to Use some allied
prisoners as bargaining chips to exert pressure on
the US and Thailand.
the Communists will continue
to hold captive beyond the June 4 prisoner exchange
deadline an unspecified number of US and Thai pris-
oners, particularly those captured after the Febru,- -
ary 1973 cease-fire agreement.
implies that the Communists plan
to link the release of these prisoners to the cessa-
tion of US aerial reconnaissance flights over Lao-
tian territory and to the dissolution of "special
forces" and bases, considerable apprehen-
sion that the US and Thailand do not intend to
comply with the provisions of the Lao Accords.
These fears probably stem from the Communists' rec-
ognition of their own violations of the Accords.
Heavy stress is placed on the cessation of over-
flights along the eastern trail network
personnel captured after
the cease-fire agreement are proof of continued US
and Thai "aggressionn'against Laos, and that this
argument might be used to counter anticipated allied
demands for the withdrawal of all North Vietnamese
troops.
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ARABIAN PENINSULA - PERSIAN GULF
An interagency working group examining the gen-
eral security situation in the Arabian Peninsula -
Persian Gulf area concludes that in some ways recent
events have enhanced the stability of the area:
--King Faysal has achieved unprecedented pres-
tige throughout the Arab world by his actions
during and after the October war. Thus he is
less susceptible to attack from Arab radicals,
and his hand in playing a leading role in the
stability of the Peninsula and the Gulf area
has been strengthened.
--Vastly greater oil revenue, if used effec-
tively, might hold down the discontent that has
provided a fertile ground for radical movements
elsewhere; it will also pay for additional mod-
ern arms, and perhaps even buy off potentially
hostile neighbors.
Overall there are strong pressures for change--
but within a traditional social framework. Certain
developments would be of little consequence to the
US. Replacement of one ruler of a small state with
another, or even the replacement of the conservative
regime in one of the lesser states with one of radi-
cal orientation,would not necessarily interfere with
US interests.
But there is some cause for concern:
--Rivalries and frictions among Gulf and Penin-
sula countries are about as intense as ever.
Especially troublesome are those between radical
and conservative regimes; they give rise to per-
ennial strains such as those between Iraq and
Iran,. between Iraq and Kuwait, between the two
'Yemens, and between South Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
They keep alive the protracted rebellion in the
Dhofar province of Oman.
--As the Gulf states achieve higher levels of
development spurred on by increased oil revenues,
the political sophistication of the area will
also increase, making it a more fertile ground
for radical ideologies.
(continued)
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--An upheaval led by revolutionary forces in the
larger oil-producing states is unlikely at this
point, but if it occurred it would be difficult
or impossible to reverse and would threaten the
US position in the Gulf as a whole.
--Turmoil in one of the lesser states might lead
to Iranian intervention, which in turn could set
the Arabs, including Saudi Arabia, against Iran.
We do not think this will happen, but if it did
it could badly erode US relations with both
Saudi Arabia and Iran. The relationship between
the Saudis and Iranians is good, and although it
is not likely ever to become close, most leaders
on both sides recognize the importance of avoid-
ing any real deterioration.
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Top Secret
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