THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 10 FEBRUARY 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007938
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: February 10, 1975

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIAIR.DP79T00936A012400010056-8
The President's Daily Brief
February 10, 1975
5
Top Secret 25X1
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 58(12,12),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
February 10, 1975
Table of Contents
Israel: The conviction is growing among Israelis
that they need be in no hurry to reach an
agreement with Egypt. (Page 1)
South Vietnam: With the approach of the lunar new
year on February 11, all indications point to
an increase in communist shellings and terror-
ist attacks. (Page 2)
Notes: USSR; Ethiopia; Cyprus (Page 4)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ISRAEL
The conviction is growing among Is-
raelis that they need be in no hurry to
reach an agreement with Egypt and that
Tel Aviv is in a position to strike a
hard bargain. According to the US em-
?bassy, the Israelis apparently assume
that war will not break out in the near
future even if Secretary Kissinger's
mediation effort should fail, but that
if war should come, Israeli military
forces are prepared.
Although Prime Minister Rabin has publicly re-
endorsed the US approach to a settlement in stages,
many Israeli parliamentarians appear to have reached
the conclusion that the utility of the staged ap-
proach is about over. They are deeply skeptical
about prospects for a second-stage agreement with
Egypt, believing that President Sadat will not con-
cede to Israeli demands for a state of nonbelliger-
ency and for a long-term accord.
Both moderates and hardliners are looking at
the alternative of a reconvened Geneva conference.
Advocates of a Geneva conference say that Israeli
attendance would:
--Convince Western opinion that Israel is not
creating an obstacle to negotiated settlement.
--Forestall an Egyptian effort to link a Syrian
agreement to an interim agreement with Egypt.
--Force the Arabs to recognize that they must
make far-reaching substantive political con-
cessions in order to obtain Israeli withdraw-
als.
--Enable Israel to retain its bargaining posi-
tion until Arab intentions are clarified.
In general, the more intransigent Israelis see
the convening of a Geneva conference primarily as
a tactical move by which Israel can stall for time
and demonstrate to the world that the Arabs are not
interested in peace. The moderates view a Geneva
conference as an opportunity to explore the possi-
bility of a definitive settlement.
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Demilitarized Zone
Gulf of
Thailand
Capital Special Zone
South
China
Sea
SOUTH VIETNAM
190
MILES
12--
10-
557300 2-75 CIA
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SOUTH VIETNAM
With Tet beginning tomorrow, all in-
dications point to, an increase in commu-
nist shellings and terrorist attacks.
There are no reliable signs, however, of
movement by communist main forces.
Saigon's military forces throughout the coun-
try are on full alert, and government holiday cele-
brations will be limited to one day instead of the'
usual three.
Countrywide, the following military activity
appears likely:
--In Military Region 1, local skirmishing is
expected to continue in varying degrees of
intensity. Some government commanders see the
current action as the prelude to a full-fledged
main-force offensive sometime this spring.
--In Military Region 2, reports from the prin-
cipal trouble spots--Binh Dinh Province on the
coast and the central highland provinces of
Kontum and Pleiku--indicate little activity.
The government remains concerned, however,
that heavy communist assaults against provin-
cial capitals in the central highlands may
occur soon.
--In Military Region 3, stepped-up action is
expected in the provinces around Saigon, es-
pecially Tay Ninh. Intercepts indicate that
the Viet Cong will make a major effort to
conduct terrorist attacks in Saigon. Some of
the fighting may result from government op-
erations scheduled to begin yesterday by the
region's new commander, General Toan. Toan
reportedly ordered elements of all three gov-
ernment divisions to go on the attack and
"carry the war to the communists." There is
some concern among his senior staff officers
that these plans are overly ambitious and may
involve unnecessary risks.
(continued)
2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
--In Military Region 4, communist forces reportedly
have celebrated the holiday early and will conduct
shellings and terrorist attacks against government
outposts, some district and provincial towns, high-
ways, and canals. Most government commanders feel,
however, that recent heavy casualties and low mo-
rale among Viet Cong forces in the delta will limit
both the intensity and the effectiveness of their
Tet actions.
3
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTES
The two Soviet cosmonauts in the'Soyuz 17
space ferry returned to earth safely yesterday
after completing 30 days in space.
The cosmonauts spent 28 days in an orbiting
space station. Their mission marked the third suc-
cessful docking of a Soyuz spacecraft and a Salyut
space station.
Ethiopian government forces in Eritrea face
serious supply shortages because of their inability
to break through the rebel encirclement of Asmara.
At the same time, the rebels ability to sus-
tain the level of fighting is questionable. The
insurgents are believed to be drawing chiefly on
stockpiles built up during the past year when the
fighting was light. Their resupply through South
Yemen or from Sudan is difficult and time consum-
ing. The US consul in Asmara reports that the
ruling military council is trying to get a commit-
tee of Eritrean notables to resume an intermediary
role between the council and the rebels. The coun-
cil, however, has reiterated its stand against in-
dependence for Eritrea.
Cyprus remained quiet over the weekend, despite
several indications on Friday that a Turkish mili-
tary operation might be imminent.
that the chances 25X1
or an early Turkish military initia ive have dimmed.
troop move- 25X1
ments on Friday were preparatory to a militar ex-
ercise scheduled to begin on Wednesday. 25X1
Turkish General Staff has no immediate 25X1
plans to capture additional territory.
4
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Top Secret
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