THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 11 JANUARY 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007915
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 11, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
January 11, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I 1652
exemption category 58(1),(21,01
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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USSR:
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
January 11, 1975
Table of Contents
Syria:
(Page 1)
(Page 2)
China: The long-delayed Fourth National People's
Congress may be under way or about to begin.
(Page 3)
Oil Prices: OPEC countries outside the Persian
Gulf are holding the average price of their
oil near fourth-quarter levels. (Page 4)
Portugal: The moderate Popular Democratic Party
has threatened to withdraw from the coalition
over a Communist-supported labor law. (Page 6)
Notes: Ethiopia; USSR; Indonesia (Page 7)
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USSR
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SYRIA
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CHINA
China's long-delayed Fourth National
People's Congress either has just begun
or is about to be convened.
The National People's Congress deals strictly
with government, as opposed to party, affairs. Docu-
ments related to the congress, when released, should
spell out China's programs and policies, particularly
in the domestic area, in greater detail than at any
time since the onset of the Cultural Revolution.
Moreover, a number of important appointments presum-
ably will be announced, including that of defense
minister, a post vacant for over three years.
Convening the congress does not mean, however,
that Peking's divided leadership has composed its
differences, although some progress in this direc-
tion has probably been made. The pattern of secrecy
surrounding this National People's Congress closely
parallels that of the Tenth Party Congress of mid-
1973, which merely papered over leadership differ-
ences that quickly resurfaced in the divisive anti-
Confucius campaign.
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OIL PRICES
OPEC countries outside the Persian
Gulf appear to be holding the average
price of their oil near fourth-quarter
levels, in spite of the recent decision
in Vienna authorizing increases of about
4 percent for Saudi benchmark crude.
Most non-Gulf producers probably are re-
luatant to raise ?their prices at this
time, since plummeting tanker rates have
put them at a competitive disadvantage
relative to Gulf producers.
In typical OPEC fashion, members have responded
in various ways to the pricing decision that their
oil ministers reached last month.
--Algeria's national oil company, Sonatrach,
has cut its price for government-owned oil
from $12.30 per barrel (plus a 20-cent penalty
if the buyer is not investing in local explora-
tion) to $12.00. Government revenue taxes and
royalties on company-owned oil and from direct
sales of government oil to third parties aver-
aged about $11.00 in the fourth quarter. Con-
sidering the high quality and advantageous lo-
cation of Algerian oil, this average is in
line with the average government take of $10.12
per barrel that the OPEC ministers established
for Saudi benchmark crude in the first three
quarters of 1975.
--Ecuador is expected to announce a new struc-
ture of taxes and royalties that will yield
$10.12 per barrel--about the same as before.
With the addition of line costs and other fees,
the average cost of oil to the producing com-
panies will continue to run about $11.04.
--Indonesia after consulting with the producing
companies, has decided against changing its
price of $12.60 per barrel of crude. With pro-
duction reportedly down 25 percent in December
from the January-September average, Jakarta
has good reason to hold off on a price increase.
(continued)
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--Libya has lowered the price of government-
owned crude to $11.86 per barrel from the pre-
vious range of $12.00 to $12.50. Meanwhile,
the cost of the producing companies' equity
oil has been increased by 65 cents, to about
$11.50. The average cost of all exported oil
should remain near the fourth-quarter level
of $11.70.
--Nigeria has not commented officially on the
new OPEC price arrangement. In early December,
Lagos increased the cost of equity oil and re-
duced prices for buyback oil in response to
the decisions at the Gulf oil conference in
November. Nigeria's action--unlike those in
the Gulf--left the average cost of oil un-
changed.
--Venezuela is the only OPEC member outside
the Persian Gulf that is likely to raise prices
Some government officials favor a government
take of $10.12, which would mean an increase
of about 50 cents per barrel. Others favor
the 38-cent increase suggested by the OPEC
ministers at Vienna.
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PORTUGAL
The moderate Popular Democratic Party
has threatened to withdraw from the pro-
visional government's three-party coali-
tion if a Communist-supported draft labor
law providing for a single labor confeder-
ation is passed.
The draft law, prepared by the former minister
of labor, a member of the Portuguese Communist Party,
represents an attempt by the Communists to institu-
tionalize an umbrella labor organization established
by the Salazar regime and now controlled by the
Communists. The bill was presented to the cabinet
early this week, following approval by the Superior
Council of the Armed Forces. The Socialists argued
strongly against the bill, but they did not commit
themselves to quit the government along with the
Popular Democrats.
Debate on labor legislation is to resume on
January 17, but the Communists are scheduling labor
demonstrations on January 14 to enlist popular sup-
port for their position. The last time labor was
organized to bring pressure on a political issue
was in connection with the events that led to Pres-
ident Spinola's resignation.
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ETHIOPIA
0 200
MILES
_,_Khartotim
SUDAN
UGANDA
557101 1-75
SAUDI ARABIA
Lake &del
*Aodis
Ababa
Indian
Ocean
?
=AN. ma
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NOTE
Ethiopian insurgents in Eritrea reportedly
have agreed to a truce.
Tribal and religious leaders in the province
who arranged the cease-fire are now exploring the
possibility of arranging direct negotiations between
the rebels and the ruling military council. Fac-
tional rivalries within Eritrea and differences
between the guerrilla leaders in the province and
political leaders in exile will, however, complicate
efforts to develop insurgent negotiating positions.
Meanwhile, there are reports of increasing dis-
affection in Begemdir Province, in the northwest,
the mi itary counci ? e unres in egem ir may
encourage tribal elements who reportedly are
plotting against the council to step up their
efforts.
The Soviets launched Soyuz 17 into orbit from
Tyuratam yesterday with two cosmonauts aboard.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Adam MaZik's
recent visit to Moscow produced no surprises but
affirmed a year-long warming trend in Moscow-
Jakarta relations.
Malik had a successful trip; he signed a gen-
eral agreement on economic and technical coopera-
tion and got a green light for a visit to Indo-
nesia by Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko this
year. Malik's recent travel also took him to East
Germany and Hungary, where he sighed trade agree-
ments to add to those reached earlier in 1974 with
Yugoslavia, Romania, and Poland. These moves
result from a deliberate policy decision by Presi-
dent Suharto to improve ties with communist states.
Suharto sees Soviet foreign policy toward the
Western states as becoming more moderate, and the
Indonesians want to balance growing Chinese in-
fluence in Southeast Asia. Indonesia also wants
to explore new sources of credit.
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Top Secret
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