THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 DECEMBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007884
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 4, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
December 4, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 56(1),(2).(3)
declassified only% on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
December 4, 1974
Table of Contents
USSR: The major immediate consequences Of the.Vladi-
vostok summit to the Soviets is the fresh momen-
tum imparted to the process of detente. (Page 1)
Israel: Foreign Minister Allon apparently will not
be able to make any commitments about the next
stage in Middle East negotiations when he visits
Washington next week. Meanwhile, public state-
ments yesterday by Israeli leaders will make it
more difficult for President Sadat to undertake
new negotiations with Israel. (Page 2)
Notes: USSR; Vietnam; USSR-France; Iraq (Pages 4 and 5)
Annex: Canada
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USSR
The major immediate consequence of
the Vladivostok summit to the Soviets is
the fresh momentum imparted to the broader
process of detente. Among other signs of
Soviet satisfaction, the routine endorse-
ment issued by the leadership after the
summit is noticeably warmer than the com-
parable statement after the Nixon-Brezhnev
meeting last July.
Reaction by the Soviet media to your meetings
with Brezhnev, favorable from the outset, has be-
come even more enthusiastic. An editorial in
Izvestia on November 26 commented that it was im-
possible to overestimate the significance of the
meeting; four days later, Izvestia characterized
the summit as surpassing expectations.
Moscow television last night devoted nearly an
hour of prime time to a review of the summit, and
a portion of your news conference was shown on the
evening news. Tass and Izvestia yesterday reported
your statement that a firm ceiling on the nuclear
arms race had been achieved, but neither provided
any details.
Although the media have drawn heavily on the
formal leadership statement for inspiration, much
reporting and commentary have been based on world
reaction--particularly the reaction in the US--to
the meeting. Apparently seeking to reassure their
domestic audience and allies of the continued via-
bility of detente despite political and economic
changes in the West, Soviet newsmen have reported
extensively and positively on US public, corporate,
and congressional reaction.
Moscow has, nevertheless, continued to warn
that within the US, die-hard enemies, although a
dwindling minority, are still trying to block the
"constructive way" in bilateral relations. The
Soviets have resumed public attacks on Senator Jack-
son after a lull following the trade-emigration com-
promise. Other old favorite targets, particularly
US backing for Israel, are also drawing fire.
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ISRAEL
Israeli Foreign Minister Allon, who
is scheduled to hold talks with Secretary
Kissinger in Washington next week, appar-
ently will not be empowered to make any
commitments regarding the next stage in
the Middle East peace negotiations. The
Israeli press refers to Allon's mission
as a "listening brief" to learn the Sec-
retary's assessment of prospects for an-
other round of talks with Egypt.
Allon told Ambassador Keating on Monday that
the cabinet has given him the go-ahead to exchange
views freely with US officials and then report back
with his recommendations. He said he was aware
that the trip might turn out to be the "most seri-
ous" one he had ever made to the US.
Israeli press speculation about the visit has
been extensive, despite government efforts to limit
public discussion. According to the press, the
cabinet has not held any substantive discussions
concerning Allon's visit.
Meanwhile, in an Israeli newspaper interview
published yesterday, Prime Minister Rabin said that
there are no realistic prospects for stable peace
in the Middle East in the next several years. Is-
rael's aim, he said, is to gain time while the US
and Western Europe free themselves from their de-
pendence on Arab oil.
Rabin said that "to stop Egypt from returning
to Soviet influence," Israel was prepared to make
additional withdrawals in the Sinai provided:
--the Egyptians do not advance into the evacu-
ated area;
--the central Sinai passes remain under Is-
raeli control; and
--such a withdrawal does not occur before the
mandate for UN troops is renewed next spring.
(continued)
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Cairo believes Rabin's statements
were intended for domestic consumption. Neverthe-
less, they will make it more difficult for President
Sadat to justify to other Arabs any new unilateral
Egyptian negotiations with Israel.
Foreign Minister Allon's statement to the Knes-
set yesterday--that Cairo had given the US private
assurances at the time the Egyptian-Israeli troop
disengagement pact that it will allow Israeli car-
goes through the Suez Canal--will further compli-
cate Sadat's position.
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SU-19 Fencer A
Characteristics:
Length 68 feet
Wing span 58 feet extended
34 feet swept
Speed 1435 knots
Radius 930 n.m.
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NOTES
USSR: The newest Soviet fighter-bomber, the
SU-19, now appears to be operational.
The SU-19
is a swing-wing aircraft similar to but slightly
smaller than the US F-111. The SU-19's range--al-
most 950 nautical miles--and improved weapons, in-
cluding a capacity to carry nuclear bombs, signifi-
cantly enhance the long-range ground-attack capa-
bilities of Soviet tactical aviation forces. The
SU-19 will probably replace the older IL-28 and
YAK-28 light bombers now in use. The Soviets may
choose not to replace them on a one-for-one basis,
however, because the SU-19 is considerably more ex-
pensive than the older bombers.
Vietnam: Hanoi is sending more troops south
than originally planned. Recent intercepts indi-
cate that the North Vietnamese are supplementing
their earlier plan to dispatch an estimated 10,000
men. According to one intercepted message, 11 ad-
ditional groups--estimated to total some 5,000-
6,000 men--are to enter the pipeline. Six of these
new groups will augment units along the infiltra-
tion corridor, while five will go to the highlands.
An additional three groups--thus far totaling some
1,000 men--have been detected entering southern
South Vietnam. The three groups probably are part
of a regiment, and their movement to southern South
Vietnam is in keeping with Communist plans for a
new round of fighting there this winter.
USSR-France: Soviet party leader Brezhnev
goes to France today for the latest in a series of
semi-annual working meetings between top officials
of the two nations. No major political agreements
are anticipated, but both governments will use the
occasion to discuss further bilateral economic co-
operation and to lay out their positions on such
issues as the European Security Conference and the
Middle East. Brezhnev and Giscard will sign recently
negotiated agreements to enhance long-term economic
and industrial cooperation. They will probably also
discuss ways of implementing them and perhaps will
conclude an agreement on export credits as well.
One of Brezhnev's purposes in meeting Giscard is
to round out his effort to establish relationships
with the new leaders in the West.
(continued)
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Iraq,: There are a numberof indications that
President Bakr is seriously ill.
He has been out of public view
for more than two weeks and has not been performing
official functions. This has fed rumors in diplo-
matic circles that Baath Party strong man Saddam
Husayn Tikriti may soon assume the presidency.
Such a transition would probably be untroubled, and
Saddam Husayn's success in shaping the new cabinet
last month is a clear indication that he is making
the major decisions in government affairs. Saddam
Husayn's weakness is that he does not command the
degree of loyalty from the military that Bakr does.
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CANADA
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau visits
Washington when US-Canadian relation's are
beset by economic and trade problems, im-
pending Canadian defense cuts, and environ-
mental concerns. The Prime Minister wants
to diversify Canada's foreign relations in
order to lessen dependence on the US, but
he recognizes that the ne'ed for economic
and security ties between the two countries
limits Canadian moves in this direction.
Trudeau is in a fairly strong position
at home. His Liberal Party gained an 18-
vote majority in the House of Commons in
the election last July, after two years as
a minority administration. The Liberals
hold a 46-seat lead over the second Zargest
parliamentary party, the Progressive Con-
servatives. Trudeau should continue in
control for at least three more years.
The Prime Minister
is able to view Canada's
complex national and international problems realis-
tically and practically. He commented in a recent'
interview, "I think it would be a very unwise, gov-
ernment which would. say, 'We've 'got the US in a, bind
because they need our energy.' They could'have us
in a bind over so many other things." -
(continued)
Al
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CPYRGHT
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CANADA'S PRINCIPAL TRADING PARTNERS
1973
Exports
Imports
Other countries Other countries
Netherlands 1.1%
Italy 1.2%
West Germany
1.8%
United
Kingdom
Japan
France 1.4%
Venezuela 2.2%
West Germany
United
Kingdom
Japan
UNITED STATES RAW MATERIAL IMPORTS, 1973*
Total Value $7.0 Billion
Communist countries
Less developed
countries
29.1%
Canada
49.7%
Other developed
countries
19.3%
*Excluding food and fuel. ,
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Energy
The worldwide economic downturn has caught up
with Canada--a fact that affects Ottawa's position
on a number of issues involved in Canadian-US rela-
tions. After achieving a growth rate of 5.5 percent
during the first half of 1974--a record exceeding
that of any other industrial country at the time--
real output in the second half of the year will reg-
ister little or no gain.
Canadian energy policies are a major irritant
to the US, which obtains one fourth of its crude oil
imports from Canada. Ottawa recently has:
--announced plans to reduce oil exports to the
US by 20 percent in 1975, with another 20-per-
cent reduction likely in 1976 and a total phase-
out by 1982;
--more than doubled oil prices for US consumers
and cut production to maintain prices; and
--boosted natural gas prices for US consumers
by two thirds, while raising domestic prices
only slightly.
Canada, furthermore, is discouraging develop-
ment of potential oil reserves. Higher taxes have
prompted a 10-percent cutback in drilling this year.
Failure to set tax and environmental guidelines has
slowed exploration of Arctic and offshore areas?
Ottawa is insisting on Canadian majority ownership
of new pipelines that would carry oil or gas to con-
tinental US markets.
Development of nonfuel resources has been hurt
by increased federal and provincial taxes on mining.
Several large projects have been postponed or can-
celed. Much of the output from some of these proj-
ects would go to the US, which receives half its im-
ports of nonfuel minerals from Canada.
Foreign Investment and Trade Issues
Canada is also taking a tougher attitude toward
foreign investors, 80 percent of whom are Americans.
Trudeau is pursuing his campaign promise to limit
foreign ownership in new resources projects to 40
percent. Ottawa is also overseeing foreign invest-
ment in manufacturing. Since controls were intro-
duced last spring, the review board has rejected
five applications by US firms to buy into Canadian
companies.
(continued)
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Canada is concerned about its trade balance
with the US. It probably will incur a small bilat-
eral deficit in 1974, compared with a $600-million
surplus in 1973.
In multilateral trade negotiations, Ottawa will
favor tariff changes that encourage exports of proc-
essed materials and manufactures rather than raw
materials.
Canada Looks to Europe and Japan
Trudeau wants to strengthen Canadian economic
ties with the EC and Japan. He followed up Canada's
proposal for a trade agreement with the EC by a trip
to Paris and Brussels in October. His trip restored
a degree of warmth to relations with France, but he
did not receive a firm commitment from the EC on a
trade pact.
The Prime Minister plans to visit other EC cap-
itals early next year. Meanwhile, Canada is pre-
paring more specific proposals in its continuing
attempt to reach an economic arrangement with the
Nine.
Efforts to strengthen economic ties with Japan--
already a major trading partner of Canada--remain
largely in the talking stage. Further improvements
in economic relations depend on the reconciliation
of Canada's desire to increase exports of manufac-
tures and processed raw materials with Japan's de-
sire for more raw materials.
Defense Issues
Canada's security is also caught in the eco-
nomic crunch. The cabinet is studying defense bud-
get cuts that probably will affect Canada's commit-
ments to UN peacekeeping, NATO, and Canadian respon-
sibilities for joint defense of the North American
continent.
The peacekeeping function is expected to bear
the brunt of any defense cuts. Largely because of
inflationary pressures, Canada has allowed its mili-
tary manpower to fall well below the authorized
strength of 84,000 and is considering cutting troop
levels to 75,000.
NATO membership remains a cornerstone of Can-
ada's security policy, and the importance of coop-
eration with the US on continental defense is clearly
recognized. Even so, reduction in Canada's minimal
commitments to NATO and adjustments in defense ar-
rangements with the US may be required.
(continued)
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Canada and the Middle East
The official Canadian position on the Israeli-
Arab dispute remains one of impartiality, but unof-
ficial sentiment normally has tended to support Is-
rael. Of late, there has been a slight shift away
from the Israelis.
Canada recognizes the right of Palestinians as
a whole to representation in international discus-
sions on the Middle East. Canada can be expected
to abstain, however, on votes in international or-
ganizations on recognition of the Palestine Libera-
tion Organization. It did so in the recent UN Gen-
eral Assembly vote on inviting that organization to
take part in debate on the Palestine question.
Law of the Sea
The Prime Minister may bring up issues related
to Law of the Sea. In recent months Canada has fre-
quently supported positions at variance with the US
on this subject. Its policy has moved closer to
that of the less developed coastal states and away
from identification with the interests of the larger
maritime powers.
Canada, for example, favors extending national
economic and scientific research zones beyond 200
miles to the limits of the continental margin. It
also supports strict unilateral control of pollution
standards and regulatory powers for scientific re-
search in a wide area beyond traditionally territor-
ial waters.
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