THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 14 NOVEMBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007868
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 14, 1974

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
The President's Daily Brief
November 14, 1974
5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category, 513( I ),(21.(3)
declassified ants; on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
November 14, 1974
Table of Contents
Palestine: Yasir Arafat, in his UN address yester-
day, hinted at compromise with Israel and Jor-
dan. He hopes for a role in peace negotiations
and eventual control of a Palestinian state.
(Page 1)
UN: The EC has made a representation to Arab rep-
resentatives urging a moderate line in any reso-
lution on Israel presented to the General As- 1
sembly. (Page 3)
Iraq-Iran: The possibility of larger scale fighting
between Iraqi and Iranian troops is increasing.
(Page 4)
International Oil: Estimates of world oil reserves--
excluding communist countries and OPEC members--
are up 25 percent over last year. (Page 5)
Israel: Prime Minister Rabin will probably have to
make concessions to Israeli labor to obtain
acceptance of his stringent new economic meas-
ures. (Page 6)
Japan: US embassy firebombed. (Page 7)
Japan:
l(Page 8)
Note: Libya (Page 10)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
1
PALESTINE
Yasir Arafat, in his address to the
UN General Assembly yesterday, omitted
the standard Palestine Liberation Organi-
zation threats against Israel, almost
certainly in the hope of gaining a mean-
ingful role in peace negotiations and
eventual control of a Palestinian state.
Yasir Arafat yesterday asked the General Assem-
bly to back the Palestinians' right to return to
their homeland, determine their own future, and
establish a National Authority on any Palestinian
territory "from which Israeli occupation is removed."
These points were drawn from a comprehensive policy
statement approved by the Palestine Liberation Or-
ganization in Cairo last June, but Arafat declined
to repeat the more radical planks of that platform.
Arafat also omitted the Palestinians' usual
rejection of UN Security Council Resolution 242,
which provides the legal basis for the Geneva peace
talks, and he left out any denunciation of Jordan's
King Husayn. These omissions almost certainly re-
flect the PLO leaders' current inclination to hint
at compromise with Israel and Jordan and were de-
signed to gain support for the Palestinians and to
avoid giving offense to Israel's backers, particu-
larly the US.
Because the Palestinians have no official
status at the UN, Arafat did not offer a specific
proposal for a resolution on the Palestine ques-
tion. Such a proposal will be introduced later in
the debate, probably by Egypt. Arab delegates are
unanimous in their assessment that the Palestinians
would be satisfied with a modest resolution that
demands a Palestinian entity but recognizes--at
least implicitly--Israel's right to exist. Such
a resolution, they believe, would achieve two impor-
tant objectives: win international recognition for
the political rights of the Palestinians, and create
a better image for the PLO.
The Arabs expect such a resolution to be passed
by an overwhelming majority. They are hopeful the
US will abstain. Debate on the Palestine question
is expected to last until November 21.
(continued)
1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
In an initial reaction to Arafat's UN speech,
Israeli Prime Minister Rabin said it challenged Is-
rael's very existence and was made on the assumption
that Jews have no right to a state. Rabin empha-
sized, however, that Israel would continue the search
for peace with the Arabs in every way--directly or
indirectly.
Arab residents in the Israeli-occupied West
Bank staged several demonstrations in support of
the PLO yesterday. A general strike called for on
the West Bank by PLO broadcasts to mark Yasir Ara-
fat's UN debut met with only limited success, how-
ever, in the face of intensive Israeli pressure.
The major exception came in Nablus--long a hotbed
of anti-Israeli activity--where the strike was
almost totally effective.
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
UN
The French--on behalf of the nine EC
members--have made a representation to the
Arab representatives in New York urging
the Arabs to take a moderate Zine and to
avoid calling Israel's right to existence
into question in any resolution that is
eventually tabled.
The Nine appear united in their continued sup-
port of Resolution 242 as the basis for any eventual
Middle East settlement. The EC will also reportedly
support the right of the Palestinians to self-deter-
mination, but only if the proposed resolution refers
to the independence, sovereignty, and territorial
integrity of all countries in the area as outlined
by Resolution 242.
Despite the Nine's determination to avoid the
differences that arose during the earlier vote to
invite the Palestine Liberation Organization to
address the Assembly, the self-determination issue
may still split the EC countries.
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
-
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
IRAQ?IRAN
The possibility of larger scale fight-
ing between Iraqi and Iranian troops is in-
creasing. In recent days Iraqi and Iranian
artillery have fired on each other, and
Iran has moved surface-to-air missiles into
Iraq to defend its units there from Iraqi
air attacks.
Iranian military activity inside Iraq has in-
creased considerably since the first conventional
air defense units crossed the border in midsummer.
The trend has been toward more direct Iranian par-
ticipation in the fighting as the Kurdish position
has eroded. The Shah may soon have to consider
whether greater military involvement would become
so open as to cause him political problems.
About 80 percent of Iraq's ground forces are
tied down fighting the Kurds, and Iraq could do
little against Iran.
The Iraqis are trying to persuade other Arabs
to intervene with the Shah. Last week they summoned
Arab chiefs of mission in Baghdad to view an exhibit
of captured Iranian military equipment in hopes of
getting some action. An Arab League committee
tasked with the study of Iran-Iraq relations was
formed at the Rabat summit, but the other Arabs are
anxious to preserve their own improved relations
with Iran. Thus it is unlikely that the committee
will be directed to expedite its mission in spite
of the urgent appeals coming out of Baghdad.
4
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
(
Selected Non-OPEC Countries: Oil Production and Export Potential
Angola-Cabinda
Bolivia
China
Egypt
Malaysia-Brunei
Mexico
Norway
Production Potential 1980
Export Potential 1980
Peru Li
United Kingdom
556848 11-74
Thousand B/D
1,000 2,0.00 3,000
4,000
Total
Production Potential 1980
Export Potential 1980
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
INTERNATIONAL OIL
The estimate of total world oil re-
serves?excluding communist countries and
OPEC members--has increased since late
1973 by at least 30 billion barrels, or
25 percent. Part of this increase is the
result of accelerated exploration activity
since the Arab oil embargo in October 1973.
The remainder has resulted from normal ex-
ploration.
Altogether, new finds could potentially make
an additional 5.5 million barrels per day--20 per-
cent of present OPEC exports--available to interna-
tional trade by 1980. Whether exports from these
newly discovered deposits will actually reach such
a figure, however, is contingent on the success of
further exploration and the willingness of certain
nations to export.
Major discoveries have been made in the North
Sea, the South China Sea, and Mexico. Smaller dis-
coveries have been made in Peru, Bolivia, Egypt
(Gulf of Suez), and along Africa's west coast.
5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ISRAEL
Prime Minister Rabin will probably
have to make concessions to Israeli la-
bor to obtain acceptance of his stringent
new economic measures. Labor's support
is essential if the program, aimed at re-
ducing Israel's huge trade deficit, is
to have a reasonable chance of success.
Israel's national labor union, Histadrut, is
holding out for a government commitment to raise
the cost-of-living allowance to compensate for the
abrupt and drastic increase in prices resulting
from the lowering of subsidies on basic commodi-
ties and from devaluation. The government has al-
ready promised to work with the union to lessen
the effects on low-income groups, large families,
the elderly, and welfare recipients. The govern-
ment insists, however, that acceptance of all the
union's demands would seriously undermine the pro-
gram.
Rabin's hand in the negotiations with Histadrut
was strengthened when his ruling coalition held to-
gether in the Knesset, where his austerity program
was approved on Tuesday by a vote of 59 to 41.
There had been uncertainty as to the degree of sup-
port the economic program enjoyed within the gov-
ernment itself.
Protest demonstrations nonetheless continue,
with brief strikes by communications, transport,
and postal workers yesterday. Arab workers in the
Israeli-occupied West Bank--which is closely linked
to the Israeli economy--have also protested. Their
per capital income is substantially below that of
the Israelis.
6
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
JAPAN
.Approximately six members of the Marx-
ist Youth League threw between 8 and 13
molotov cocktails at our Tokyo embassy
shortly before noon today Tokyo time, pos-
sibly in protest against your visit and
later trip to Vladivostok. No damage was
done to the embassy, and no American per-
sonnel were reported injured.
Members of the same group also threw firebombs
at the Soviet embassy, apparently with similar re-
sults.
The Japanese government has officially apolo-
gized to the US and the USSR. Japanese police have
arrested nine individuals, according to initial re-
ports. The bombers have no known connection with
the Japanese Red Army, a radical terrorist organi-
zation.
The embassy has tightened security, and Japa-
nese riot police are supplying additional protection.
Embassy officials report the situation is under con-
trol.
7
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
ii
? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15: CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
JAPAN
(continued)
8
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
2bAl
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
9
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTE
Libya: President Qadhafi directed conciliatory
statements toward his Arab neighbors this week in a
?speech before Libya's national party congress. Al-
though occasionally critical of Arab strategy toward
Israel, the Libyan leader generally stressed Libya's
own needs and its desire to return to the Arab field.
Qadhafi's performance suggests that he believes he
can no longer bear the heavy political cost of openly
pursuing a maverick course. Other Arab leaders will
probably not be persuaded by his address, but they
may believe prospects are improved for controlling
their troublesome colleague.
10
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010045-1