THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 11 OCTOBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007839
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 11, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
October 11, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 514(11.125.(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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October 11, 19-74
Table of Contents
Saudi Arabia - US:
(Page 1)
Cyprus: Archbishop Makarios reportedly will return
to Cyprus shortly after the.UN debate. (Page 2)
Portugal: The rightists reportedly are planning to
manipulate the Catholic celebration in Fatima"
this Sunday. .(Page 3)-
China-Laos: Chinese-roadbuilding efforts in north-
ern Laos are progressing well. (Page 4)
Angola: A Portuguese delegation was expected in
Kinshasa yesterday to discuss decolonization
with Zairian President Mobutu. (Page 5)
South Korea: The government -expects to contain
street demonstrations in Seoul, but there is-
a danger that the confrontations could become
increasingly violent. (Page 6)
Notes: Iraq; Vietnam; United Kingdom (Page 7)
Annex: In the Annex we discuss Somalia under Pres-
ident Siad.
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SAUDI ARABIA ? US
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cypiws
Archbishop Makarios has told sup-
porters in Cyprus that he probably will
return to the island sometime shortly
after the UN debate. Makarios reportedly
acknowledged a strong anti-Makarios ele-
ment on the island, but he said his
presence would have a stabilizing effect
within the Greek Cypriot community.
Should the archbishop return, he may find that
some of his traditional supporters will demand a
greater role in policy-making. A leading member of
the Communist Party of Cyprus recently stated that
while his party continues to support Makarios' re-
turn, the situation is different now and the Commu-
nists must be accorded their "proper role" in poli-
tics.
Another of Makarios' supporters, leftist polit-
ical leader Vassos Lyssarides, has also stated that
all political leaders--except for extreme rightists--
must be consulted, particularly before an agreement
is signed with the Turkish Cypriots. He called for
the formation of an "ecumenical government" made up
of all political groups except the extreme right.
Makarios' return before a political settlement
is reached with the Turks would likely harden the
positions of both sides in the negotiations. Acting
President Clerides might stay on to continue nego-
tiations with Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash, but
his flexibility and authority to commit the Greek
side would be greatly reduced. The Denktash-Clerides
talks would likely be redefined as strictly explora-
tory, with any decisions being left to Athens and
Ankara but also requiring Makarios' approval.
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PORTUGAL
The rightists, thwarted in their at-
tempts to hold a pro-Spinola rally on
September 28, are now rumored to be plan-
ning to turn the Catholic celebration in
Fatima this Sunday into a "spontaneous"
anti-Communist demonstration. Some
300,000 Catholics are expected to attend
the celebration in that northern town.
If such a demonstration were to succeed, it
might'provide the impetus for rightist military ele-
ments to attempt a countercoup. The right wing,
however, is in shambles as a result of the events
of the past two weeks, and it is doubtful that
rightists could successfully organize a sizable pro-
test demonstration. It seems equally doubtful that
conservatives in the military have been able to re-
group sufficiently to carry out a successful power
grab. A desperate attempt to halt what many conserv-
ative Portuguese see as a rapid swing to the left
cannot be ruled out, however.
The regime has placed military units charged
with internal security on alert.
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CHINA-LAOS
Chinese roadbuilding efforts-in.north-
ern Laos are progressing well and
the.roads wili be turned over to
the Laotians upon completion
the section in Phong
Saly Province had already shifted to Lao-
tian control.
Last month Prime Minister Souvanna reportedly
requested that the Chinese extend the road as far
as Luang Prabang.
the Chinese-built system in the north would
be connected to the existing Lao road network in the
south.
Even if the leg to Luang Prabang is the last
job for the Chinese roadbuilders, some of their
23,000-man force will have to stay because the Lao-
tians will. be unable to maintain the 300-mile road
network.
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ANGOLA
A Portuguese delegation arrived in
Kinshasa yesterday to discuss with Zair-
ian President Mobutu the decolonization
of Angola.
The Portuguese probably will attempt to reassure
Mobutu that Lisbon's efforts to decolonize Angola
have not been ,set back by the resignation of presi-
dent Spinola, who met with Mobutu last month in the
Cape Verde Islands. If anything, President Costa
Gomes probably hopes to speed up the decolonization
process.
Both the Portuguese and Mobutu are in a quandary
over Angola. Mobutu has been unable to bring together
?the three insurgent groups, partly because of their
rivalries and internal factionalism. Mobutu's pref-
erence for certain insurgent leaders has complicated
his efforts.
Angola's .500,000 whites fear that Lisbon will
negotiate a direct transfer of power to an insurgent
coalition, as was done in Mozambique. They are press-
ing Lisbon to protect their interests, but they are
not sufficiently organized to prevent such a transfer
of power.
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SOUTH KOREA
The government expects the street
demonstrations mounted in Seoul by stu-
dents and Christians during the past
two days to peak soon. Based on past
performance, government security forces
should contain the protests, but there
is a danger that the confrontations
could become increasingly violent.
The demonstrators are emphasizing two long,-
standing demands, the release of comrades impris-
oned under the emergency decrees earlier this year,
and an end to President Pak's unlimited power,
The basic issue is Pak's authoritarian rule,
which he argues is necessary, as long as the con-
frontation with North Korea continues. Anew ele-
ment in the situation is your planned visit in NO-
vember. The impending visit,, together with recent
criticisms of Pak in the US, have encouraged Pak's
foes to make protests that would.have carried grave
risks earlier this year. Pak has tried to disabuse
the opposition of the notion that it can get away
with more now, stressing that the US has made no
demands that he moderate his policies, and that he
will take firm measures to maintain order.
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NOTES
Iraq: The Kurds have been dealt their worst
defeat since the fighting began last March. After
several days of combat, the Iraqi army has taken
a strategic mountain overlooking the road to Kurd-
ish headquarters at Al-Hajj Umran. The Kurds re-
portedly suffered more than 200 casualties. The
Iraqi victory could be costly, since Baghdad's
troops reportedly are demoralized by high casualties
in the protracted and inconclusive fighting.
Vietnam: The Viet Cong's Provisional Revolu-
tionary Government has issued a statement calling
for the overthrow of President Thieu before the
Paris agreement can be implemented. Although this
line first appeared in North Vietnamese propaganda
last August, the new statement represents the first
official endorsement of the tougher Viet Cong posi-
tion on Thieu. It contrasts with an earlier posi-
tion, which stressed that Thieu eventually would be
replaced by the political process set forth in the
Paris agreement. It is another sign of Hanoi's
gradual disenchantment with the prospects for major
political gains through negotiations as long as
President Thieu is in power.
United Kingdom: Harold Wilson's Labor Party
seems headed for a clear but narrow parliamentary
majority. Vote counting has been completed in just
over three-quarters of the 635 districts, and Labor
has captured 294 seats, 24 short of a majority. The
Conservatives have won 184 seats so far, and the
Liberals 5. Edward Heath refused to concede last
night, saying he might wait until all the votes are
counted this afternoon.
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SOMALIA UNDER PRESIDENT SIAD
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President Mohamed Siad)
/is approach-
ing his fifth anniversary as
head of Somalia's leftist-con-
trolled Supreme Revolutionary
Council. /
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Despite occasional strains
within the 21-member Supreme
Revolutionary Council, Siad,
who has survived several plots
and assassination attempts,
seems to feel he has things
under control. He was away
from Mogadiscio on trips to
outlying areas for long periods earlier this year.
In September Siad, who is currently President of the
Organization of African Unity, left the country for
ten days to attend an African summit meeting and to
visit parts of central Africa.
In fact, his travels have been largely in
Africa, although he visited the USSR in November
1971 and the People's Republic of China and North
Korea in May 1972. Italy is one of the few Western
nations with which he is on good terms.
Perhaps the most pressing problems now facing
Siad are economic. With one of the lowest levels
of living in Africa, Somalia has been especially
hard hit by the rising cost of food; some prices
have doubled since last November. Staples are
strictly rationed or simply unavailable; many non-
essential items are no longer imported.
Relations With US
Somalia's relations with the US can best be
described as cool. The small American mission in
Mogadiscio is restricted from traveling outside
the capital as well as to certain parts of the city
itself.
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(continued)
Al
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/ Private US citi-
zens have been harassed while passing through the
country, and a number have been arrested or expelled
on trivial charges. The government has lodged an
official protest with the US embassy over statements
that a Soviet base has been established at Berbera.
Nonetheless, Siad wants to keep ties open with
the US. Aside from Somalia's other economic woes,
its harvests of foodgrains have been poor this year,.
and the Somalis will soon be seeking economic.as-
sistance. Mogadiscio is concerned by US shipments
of tanks and other arms to Ethiopia during the past
few months bedause of the impact these axilis will
have on the Somali-Ethiopian military balance.
Somalia would like to convince the US that there is
no real need for the arms in Addis Ababa.
Soviet Relations
The Somalis have had military ties with the
USSR since 1963, before a revolution put Siad in
power. In return for Soviet arms and the improve-
ment of Somali airfields and ports, Mogadiscio
granted the Soviets bunkering, repair, and communi-
cation facilities at Berbera. Moscow's interest in
the relationship quickened after its expulsion from
Egypt in 1972, and these facilities are now being
expanded. The Soviets may hope to use an airfield
they are constructing near Mogadiscio as a base for
long-range reconnaissance aircraft./
/60 percent of the country's officer corps is
Soviet-trained.
The large Soviet presence--estimated at over
1,400 military and economic advisers--has generated
popular resentment in Somalia. The regime, which
was split on the issue, has done its best to play
down a friendship treaty signed with Moscow in July
1974.
One of the most irritating aspects of the
Soviet tie has been Moscow's insistence on doling
out oil supplies to Somalia bit by bit, in order
to keep the country on a tight rein.
The Arab States
In an attempt to circumvent this restriction
and to conciliate members of the Revolutionary Coun-
cil who felt the Moscow connection had gone too far,
(continued)
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Siad moved successfully last February to get Somalia
admitted to the Arab League. He likes the Arabs
and is antagonistic toward Israel. His hope that
the Arab connection would result in money and oil
has been partially realized. Libya promised to
cooperate in a joint development bank, shipping line,
and agricultural scheme, in addition to paying for
the construction of 4 commercial airport under a
1972 loan. More significant was. Iraq's agreement
to help construct an oil refinery in.Mogadiscio and
lend Somalia the money to pay for its share. .
A Somali official announced on October 1: that
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have offered Somalia $37-
million worth of financial assistance. The Saudis
have held out the bait of an additional $20 million
if Somalia can produce evidence that it has reduced
Soviet influence--a condition the Somalis may find
easier to promise ?than to fulfill.
Ethiopia
Although President Siad has publicly stated
a policy of Somali noninterference in the events
unfolding in Ethiopia, relations with Addis Ababa
as well as with neighboring Kenya have long been
uneasy. Almost from the time it became an inde-
pendent state, Somalia has had irredentist claims
on the Ogaden region of Ethiopia, the nOrtheast
province of Kenya, and the French Territory of the
Afars and Issas--with its strategic port of
Djibouti--on the grounds that all these areas are
inhabited by ethnic Somalis. In the past, govern-
ments in Mogadiscio have backed guerrilla activity.
across the Ethiopian and Kenyan borders.
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