THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 OCTOBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007833
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 4, 1974

Declassified in Part: Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010010-9
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The President's Daily Brief
October 4, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 513(1),(2),(31
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15: CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010010-9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 4, 1974
Table of Contents
Italy: Prime Minister Rumor's center-left govern-
ment steps down, and hard bargaining lies ahead.
(Page 1)
Portugal: Leftists further improve
(Page 3)
Middle East: Some Israeli,
forces on alert. (Page 4)
their position.
and Syrian ,
Cyprus: Acting President derides did not go
through with his threatened resignation yes-
terday. (Page 5)
South Vietnam: Strong Communist attack on last gov-
ernment stronghold in northern Kontum. (Page 6)
Thailand: Sanya turns over duties temporarily to
deputy prime minister. (Page 7)
Note: Lebanon (Page 8)
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ITALY
Long and difficult negotiations will
be required to form a successor to Prime
Minister Rumor's center-left government,
which resigned yesterday. The Christian
Democrat that President Leone picks to
form the next government--party chief
Amintore Fanfani is a strong possibility--
will probably try to put the center-left
coalition back together. Failing that,
the Christian Democrats may form a one-
party, caretaker government to preside
until the dust settles.
Evidence had been mounting that there would be
a major political blowup in Italy this fall. All
that was missing was a catalyst. That came Tuesday,
when the smallest party in Rumor's cabinet, the So-
cial Democrats, unleashed a bitter attack on its
Socialist coalition partners.
Finance Minister Tanassi, leader of the Social
Democrats, accused the Socialists of paralyzing the
coalition with their insistence on closer relations
with the Communists and changes in the austerity pro-
gram passed by parliament in mid-August. Tanassi
said the only solution was for President Leone to
call new elections, since parliamentary arithmetic
does not now permit a workable non-Communist majority
without the Socialists.
Speculating about Social Democratic motivation,
some left-wing and moderate press commentators have
pointed to the US as the instigator of Tanassi's move.
They charge that Tanassi--who is noted for his strong
anti-Communist views--was influenced by reports that
the US is alarmed over the prospect of increased Com-
munist influence in Italy.
President Leone may refuse to accept Rumor's
resignation, as he did last June when he managed to
keep the government in place. This tactic is less
likely to work now, because differences among the
coalition parties have grown considerably. A fairly
broad consensus, moreover, holds that Rumor's mandate
has run out.
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Leone will also be reluctant to accept the Social
Democrats' call for elections. Sentiment is running
strongly against this alternative, not only because
it failed to solve anything when last tried in 1972,
but also because the Socialists and Communists stand
the best chance of scoring gains. Most political
leaders would prefer to study the outcome of regional
elections this spring before risking a national con-
test.
Negotiations will be complicated mainly by the
increased assertiveness of the Socialists. They will
press hard for more important cabinet posts, more
spending on social programs, and--probably--for some
form of governmental collaboration with the Communists.
While this is all going on, the Communists will be
hammering away at the theme they have stressed with
increased emphasis during the last year--that the
country's problems cannot be solved without Communist
help. They will be seeking official recognition by
the governing parties, such as formalized consulta-
tions on legislative matters.
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PORTUGAL
? The leftists are the apparent bene-
ficiaries of the changes made yesterday
in the Portuguese government.
Prime Minister Goncalves took over the Ministry
of Defense, where he will be "assisted" by another
member of the leftist-oriented Armed Forces Movement,
Major Alves. The Defense Ministry had previously
been in the hands of Spinola supporters. The Minis-
try of Information has been reduced to a lesser of-
fice and made directly responsible to the prime min-
ister.
President Costa Gomes is still chief of staff
of the armed forces, the most important military po-
sition, but Goncalves and the Movement are now in ? -
position to undermine the President on military mat-
ters.
The Movement may be acting independently of the
government in other fields.
A source close to Foreign Minister Soares told
the embassy in Lisbon yesterday that elements in the
Portuguese government, possibly including Goncalves,
are working to sabotage the Azores negotiations in
such a way as to make it appear that the US is unwill-
ing to help Portugal. The source said this would then
be used to justify Portuguese withdrawal from NATO.
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MIDDLE EAST
Some Syrian, and Israeli
forces have been put on alert.
Travelers from
Damascus have reported that Syrian forces went on
alert Monday, and the Israelis announced yesterday
that their forces in the Golan Heights have also
been placed in a higher state of readiness.
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CYPRUS
Acting Cypriot President Clerides de-
cided not to go through with his threatened
resignation yesterday after receiving a
strong statement of support from Archbishop
Makarios. An apparent attempt against his
life late last night, possibly by pro-Maka-
rios leftists, may well cause him to recon-
sider.
According to the US embassy in Nicosia, Clerides
believes Vassos Lyssarides, a leftist political leader
and an ardent Makarios supporter, was directly respon-
sible for the assassination attempt. Clerides report-
edly believes Makarios is indirectly responsible for
the attempt because of his earlier efforts to under-
mine Clerides.
Earlier yesterday, Archbiship Makarios had urged
Greek Cypriots to help Clerides in his "difficult and
complex task." Makarios called for an end to mass
rallies and speculation by his own supporters about
his return. The Archbishop said he would decide for
himself the date of his return after the forthcoming
discussion of the Cyprus issue at the UN. Makarios
and Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis had previously
given Clerides assurances of sup-
port, but Clerides considered them inadequate. He
demanded unequivocal backing, claiming he could not
otherwise negotiate with the Turkish Cypriots or
govern the Greek Cypriots,
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DEMILITARIZED ZONE
SOUTH
VIETNAM
556696 10-74
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SOUTH VIETNAM
North Vietnamese forces have mounted
a strong attack on the outpost at Chuong
Nghia, the last government stronghold in
northern Kontum Province. Government
troops have already suffered heavy cas-
ualties and radio contact with the garri-
son has been lost. If--as seems likely--
the Communists take the camp, they will
have full control of some two thirds of
Kontum Province. This would make it
easier for them to move closer to inland
population centers and to Route 1 along
the coast.
Just a few weeks ago, commanders in Military
Region 2 were saying they would defend Chuong Nghia
at all costs. The outpost is manned only by local
government security forces, however, who are little
match for the North Vietnamese. Reinforcement is
unlikely because of heavy Communist ground fire.
Fighting has also intensified in central Mili-
tary Region 1, especially near Hue where the Com-
munists are trying to take positions dominating
Route 1 before the rains get heavier. South Viet-
namese commanders say they can contain the attacks
in this area, but they have made little progress in
regaining territory already lost to the Communists.
In Ouang Nam Province, South Vietnamese forces
trying to recapture the former district capital of
Thuong Duc have been slowed by North Vietnamese ar-
tillery and mortar. attacks. The Communists are
said to have moved a fresh regiment into the area.
This, together with the approach of bad weather,
could prompt the South Vietnamese to put off their
move on Thuong Duc.
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THAILAND
Prime Minister Sanya, citing health
reasons, has announced that he is tempor-
arily turning over his duties to Deputy
Prime Minister Prakop. There is wide-
spread belief that Sanya will not attempt
to return to office.
Although the health of the 67-year-old Prime
Minister is not good, his decision appears to have
been prompted largely by political considerations.
During the past week Sanya has received strong criti-
cism from all quarters, including the cabinet, for
his handling of student protests against the draft
constitution. His apparent willingness to scuttle
that document, the preparation of which has been
under way for nearly a year, has undermined much of
the sympathy and respect Sanya had built up during
his year in office.
Final deliberations on the constitution began
in the National Assembly today. Although student
militants have threatened violent demonstrations,
it is doubtful that they will attract much support.
Two key university groups have announced they will
'refrain from any protests at this time.
Sanya is likely to stay on the sidelines until
the draft constitution is promulgated, most likely
on October 8. He may choose that occasion to offer
his resignation, citing the completion of the task
he assumed when he took office one year ago--the
drafting of the new constitution--and formally turn
over his responsibilities to his deputy. Since gen-
eral elections are scheduled for February 1, it is
a solution that most Thai presumably could accept.
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NOTE
Lebanon: President Franjiyah yesterday charged
veteran centrist leader Saib Salam with forming of a
new government. Salam's ability to assemble a new
cabinet quickly is questionable; he reportedly will
be strongly opposed by leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt,
who played an important role in bringing down former
prime minister Sulh's government last week.
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Tob Secret
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