THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 1 OCTOBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007830
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 1, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
October 1, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 511(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 1, 1974
Table of Contents
Portugal: Costa Gomes installed as President after
Spinola resigns. (Page 1)
Cyprus: Clerides wins qualified Greek backing.
(Page 3)
Syria:
(Page 4)
USSR - Indian Ocean: Soviet helicopter ship Lenin-
grad off Somalia; Soviet naval support in In-
dian Ocean assessed. (Page 5)
Turkey: Attempt to form new coalition. (Page 7)
Iraq: Army driven back by Kurds. (Page 8)
China-Philippines: Mutual interest in improved
relations dramatized by extraordinary recep-
tion given Mrs. Marcos. (Page 9)
Annex: Mujibur Rahman
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PORTUGAL
Speeches yesterday by newly installed
Portuguese President Costa Gomes and former
president Spinola contrasted sharply.
In his resignation speech, Spinola bitterly
denounced the emergence of a generalized climate of
anarchy. He warned the Portuguese people that they
were threatened with a "new form of servitude under
the banner of false liberty." He declared that he
was unable to carry out the program of the Armed
Forces Movement because its ideals had been set
aside.
Costa Gomes stressed the achievements that have
been made since the April coup and appealed for
unity. The new President reaffirmed his support
for the Armed Forces Movement and seemed to be sig-
naling that he will be more flexible than his pred-
ecessor. He reminded his listeners that in politics
"one must not be tied to rigid and preconceived
schemes."
Costa Gomes has long acted as a mediator be-
tween the unyielding Spinola and the leftists in the
Armed Forces Movement. Perhaps to calm supporters
of the popular ex-president, Costa Gomes lavishly
praised Spinola's dedication to the movement's
ideals and noted his own efforts to prevent the
resignation.
Earlier in the afternoon, Costa Gomes visited
a commando unit outside Lisbon, which professed
loyalty to Spinola, presumably to quell possible
unrest.
Costa Gomes promised that Portugal would honor
all of its international obligations including its
association with NATO. Foreign Minister Soares had
earlier informed the embassy that Lisbon will remain
in NATO.
The size of the military junta has been re-
duced by the forced resignation of three Spinola
loyalists. With Spinola's resignation, only three
officers remain: Costa Gomes himself and two de-
cidedly leftist admirals. Cabinet changes are ex-
pected; Spinola supporters in the ministries of de-
fense and social communications are likely to be
replaced.
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The Council of State reportedly approved the
formation of a "Council of Revolution" composed of
160 members of the Armed Forces Movement to serve
as the highest directive body of the government.
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CYPRUS
Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis yes-
terday urged Greek Cypriots to support
acting President Clerides. KaramanZis
qualified his backing somewhat by saying
support for Clerides should be extended
so long as the continuing crisis pre-
cludes the return to Cyprus of the
"elected president, Archbishop Makarios."
The Prime Minister's announcement followed a
meeting with a member of the Cypriot parliament who
briefed Karamanlis about the growing disunity in the
Greek Cypriot community. The parliament member may
also have delivered a threat from Clerides to resign
if Athens did not give him stronger public support.
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The machinations of Archbishop Makarios, who
has announced his intention to go back to the is-
land, have also become a growing worry for Clerides.
The campaign among Makariosrsupporters for the Arch-
bishop's early return has gained strength; Makarios'
supporters held a mass rally in Limassol on Sunday.
Clerides, meanwhile, continued his discussions
of humanitarian issues with Denktash yesterday.
The two agreed to resume the exchange of prisoners,
who will be released where they wish, regardless of
the location of their homes.
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SYRIA
Syrian pilots have begun training
for ground-attack missions with the
MIG-23. Training of this kind suggests
that the Syrians are well advanced in
their ability to handle this aircraft,
which is the most sophisticated in any
Arab inventory. Iraq is the only other
country to have received this aircraft.
Syria's first MIG-23s arrived in June; it now
has at least 45, including both the ground-attack
and interceptor versions.
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The Syrians flew only a few ground-attack mis-
sions during the war last October; they used obso-
lescent MIG-17 and SU-7 aircraft in this role.
The MIG-23 will give Syria a better capability
for ground attack. The interceptor version of this
aircraft should also enable the Syrian air force to
engage Israeli F-4 Phantoms more effectively in
aerial combat.
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TURKEY
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USSR ? INDIAN OCEAN AREA
The Soviet helicopter ship Leningrad
and its escorting destroyer were sighted
15 to 20 miles off Berbera, Somalia on
Friday and Saturday. Helicopters from
the ship appeared to be flying to Berbera
port, which is just within sight of the
anchored ships. The two ships may spend
as much as a week in the Gulf of Aden be-
fore they rendezvous with a supply ship
off the east coast of Somalia.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the Leningrad and its
escort took on food and fuel from an auxiliary ship
at the Soviet anchorage 20 miles off Aden.
The Leningrad
has not entered the territorial waters of either
Somalia or South Yemen.
Soviet helicopter ships, the Leningrad and the
Moskva, have made only five calls at foreign ports--
four to Egypt and one to Yugoslavia.
Soviet Naval Su. .ort in the Indian Ocean Area
As Moscow has extended its routine naval opera-
tions into distant areas such as the Indian Ocean,
the Soviet navy has sought to supplement auxiliary
ship groupings--"floating bases"--with foreign shore
support facilities. Traditionally, the Soviet navy
has avoided dependence on foreign sources and means.
At present, Soviet ships in the Indian Ocean receive
substantial support at several ports, although none
were set up as US-style "homeports." At Berbera in
Somalia, Soviet personnel even have direct control
over some facilities.
Most Soviet warships operating in the Indian
Ocean routinely put in to Berbera for resupply,
minor repairs, and short-term crew rest. Repairs
are performed alongside a Soviet barge that has been
docked there since October 1972, The Soviets control
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a storage area on the pier, but
wea ons or ammunition,
is not used for
The Soviets have reportedly agreed to assist in
constructing an airfield near Berbera, but work on
an airstrip has not begun. They are, however, assist-
ing in the development of Berbera's commercial port
facilities, including a major expansion of petroleum
storage capacity.
Access to Berbera has enabled the Soviets to
double the time on station of their basic Indian
Ocean contingent, which includes one destroyer, two
destroyer escorts, two fleet minesweepers, one land-
ing ship, and an F-class diesel submarine.
Facilities. in Iraq
Soviet naval ships receive some servicing at
the main Iraqi port of Al Basra. Support there ap-
parently is limited to minor maintenance for smaller
ships on an intermittent basis. A Soviet repair
.ship has been observed at the Al Basra naval base,
where it has remained for as long as six months at
a time. Soviet naval ships, including at least one
of the two fleet minesweepers that participated in
a Persian Gulf patrol last summer, occasionally visit
Al Basra while the repair ship is in port.
Soviet warships call at Umm Qasr in Iraq even
more frequently than at Al Basra. Visits are limited
to resupply activity, however. There are no main-
tenance or repair facilities at Umm Qasr,
Aden Port (South Yemen)
Despite the Leningrad's experience, other Soviet
naval ships frequently visit Aden. This port, some
150 nautical miles across the Gulf of Aden from
Berbera, has extensive commercial repair facilities
remaining from the days when Aden was a British
colony. The Soviet navy has not used these repair
facilities, but their auxiliary ships make regular
stops in Aden to take on water, fuel, and other pro-
visions. They may also pick up supplies arriving
in Aden via air transport from the USSR. The Soviets
have routinely used Aden's international airport--
located only five miles from the port--for military
transport flights. In recent months, Soviet warships
frequently have been observed at anchorage near the
port.
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TURKEY
Suleyman Demirel, leader of the
Justice Party, will try to form a right-
of-center coalition following Prime Min-
ister Ecevit's second failure to organize
a new government.
If Demirel can get the Democrats and the ultra-
conservative Salvationists to join him, the three-
party coalition would have a. majority of approxi-
mately 15 in the 450-seat parliament.
The Democratic Party, however, is largely made
up of former Justice Party members who broke with
Demirel in 1970, and they remain bitterly opposed
to him. The chances of a rightist coalition coming
to fruition would be much better if Demirel would
step aside.
Ecevit believes that Demirel will fail to or-
ganize a new government. Ecevit told the US em-
bassy last week that once it is demonstrated that
a rightist coalition is not possible, his chances
of enticing the Democratic Party into a coalition
with his Republican People's Party will be much
improved.
A caretaker government led by Ecevit will
provide continuity for Turkey's policies, but will
be unable to take any new initiatives. Even should
the rightist political forces put together a coa-
lition, they would be unlikely to make any radical
departures from the policies pursued by Ecevit on
issues such as Cyprus and relations with the US,
including the opium question. A rightist coalition
might find it even more difficult to make signifi-
cant concessions to the Greeks.
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Black
Caspian
Sea
U .S .
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aghdad
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IRAQ
The anticipated renewal of the Iraqi
offensive against Kurdish positions in
northeastern Iraq began Friday. The of-
fensive involves a two-pronged attack,
whose objective is to drive the Kurds
from the heights overlooking the road
from Rawanduz into Iran, and to cut Kurd-
ish forces from supply points along the
Iranian border.
the Iraqis have al-
ready suffered a costly defeat, their second in two
weeks. Baghdad's troops, supported by aircraft and
artillery, apparently overran some Kurdish positions
in the early stages of the assault, but were driven
back in fierce fighting early Saturday morning.
The Iraqis are said to have withdrawn to Ra-
wanduz, leaving some 500 casualties and a large
amount of military equipment on the battlefield.
The Kurds followed the retreating Iraqis to their
camp and shelled them with mortars.
CP,
Baath Party strongman Tikriti has committed his
prestige to defeating the Kurds before winter sets
in about six weeks from now. If the latest. drive.
fails, opposition within the Iraqi military to the
Kurdish war will certainly intensify. This could
produce an open power struggle between Tikriti and
opponents within the government and the military.
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CHINA-PHILIPPINES
Mutual interest in improving relations
was dramatized last week as the Chinese
gave Philippine First Lady Imelda Marcos
an extraordinary reception in Peking.
Mrs. Marcos was favored with separate meetings
with Chairman Mao Tse-tung and with hospitalized
Premier Chou En-lai. This was Chou's ?first such
appearance in more than six weeks. Excluding ear-
lier meetings with US officials, Mrs. Marcos' audi-
ence with Mao is the only time in recent years that
he has met with an emissary of a government with
which Peking has no official ties.
By their warm treatment of Mrs. Marcos, the
Chinese have shown that they will keep the pressure
on for early diplomatic recognition. President
Marcos may conclude that the time has come to move
more quickly in this direction, despite the damage
this will do to Philippine relations with Taiwan.
?Even before Mrs. Marcos' visit, there were
signs that Manila had begun exploring some of the
issues that could come up during negotiations on
diplomatic relations. The Philippines sent a
representative to Taipei earlier this year to ad-
vise the Nationalists that Manila was considering
improving its ties with Peking.
A trade agreement was announced during Mrs.
Marcos' visit. The agreement reportedly provides
for the sale of Chinese petroleum. The Philippines
agreed to sell sugar, wood products and other items
in return. Details of the pact are to be worked
out when a Philippine trade delegation visits China
later in the year.
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MUJIBUR RAHMAN
As Bangladesh Prime
Minister Mujibur Rahman ar-
rives in Washington, his
country is undergoing severe
internal stress. When Mujib
took over early in 1972, the
new nation of more than 75
million people faced a quan-
tity of postwar problems.
Nearly three years later the
economic situation has not
improved, and political and
social problems have reached
a point where they pose a
serious threat to his regime.
Domestic Problems
The economy of Bangladesh, already strained by
an annual population growth rate of over 3 percent,
has been hurt badly over the past year by widespread
shortages--particularly of food and imported goods.
To complicate matters this fall, Bangladesh has been
feeling the effects--which Mujib considers very se-
rious--of recent flooding. Indeed, the Prime Minis-
ter fears unrest, particularly in urban areas, and
reportedly views the situation as the worst his re-
gime has yet faced.
Mujib has recently come under public attack
for his inability to check general lawlessness, in-
cluding political violence, and for the inefficiency
and corruption of his regime. Disillusionment and
discontent have apparently spread to all levels of
the military and to moderate leaders within Mujib's
own party, the Awami League. With the political
opposition badly fragmented, the most credible
threat to Mujib would appear to come from dissi-
dents in the Awami League or from the armed forces.
The risk of an eventual military move against
Mujib is increasing as he drifts toward greater
authoritarianism in the face of growing problems.
Should Mujib act to increase his powers sharply,
military support would be crucial; whether the mil-
itary would go along with Mujib or seek to unseat
him would depend in part on whether he could assure
the armed forces an enhanced role in a subsequent
regime.
(continued)
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Relations with the: United'
States
Although Mujib and many Bengalee officials
have a lingering resentment toward the US for its
policy during the independence struggle in 1971,
Mujib has shown a genuine fondness for Americans
over the years.
Indeed, the Prime Minister himself started the
movement toward more normal relations with Washing-
ton He sees bet-
ter relations with the US as ?resulting in more aid,
which in turn will help him stay in power.r.
/Mujib
probably also hopes that the meeting will enhance
his standing as international statesman and divert
attention from domestic problems.
The move toward Washington has been prompted
also by the changing status of Mujib's relations
with the Soviet Union and India. His feelings to-
ward the Soviet Unionhave cooled recently, in
part because of Moscow's failure. to respond more ?
quickly and generously to requests for flood relief
and because of its meager contribution to develop-
ment aid.
The relationship with India also affects his
attitude toward .the US. Anti-Indian feeling is
growing in Bangladesh, stemming from popular fears
of economic .exploitation and political domination
by New Delhi. Improved relations with Washington
give Mujib!s. government more flexibility in deal-
ing with India, .upon which he has previously been
heavily dependent for political and economic as-
sistance.
(continued)
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The Prime Minister probably believes the US
has more interest in and influence over events in
Bangladesh, and South Asia in general, than is ac-
tually the case. Thus he probably has unrealistic
expectations of what the US can do for him eco-
nomically and politically.
(continued)
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He was treated in Moscow for an illness last
spring. This was publicly announced as acute bron-
chitis
he
returned from Moscow apparently fully recovered.
Mujib remains a folk
hero and is still respect-
fully referred to in Bang-
ladesh as Bangobandhu--an
honorific translated
roughly as "father of Ben-
gal." He takes this status
quite seriously and refers
to the people and country--
indeed almost everything
about Bangladesh--in pater-
nalistic terms. 2
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