THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 25 SEPTEMBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007825
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 25, 1974

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012300010002-8
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The President's Daily Brief
September 25, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(1),(2),(31
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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September 25, 1974
Table of Contents.,
(Page 1)
Oil: Foreign reactions to the speeches you and
Secretary Kissinger made on price-rigging.
(Page 2)
Cambodia: Potential for serious civil disorder.
(Page 4)
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Egypt: Sayyid Mari may move in position to succeed
Sadat eventually. (Page 7)
Turkey: Democratic Party rejects Ecevit's invita-
tion to join in coalition. (Page 8)
Bangladesh: Coup plotting against government of
PrfFIF Minister Mujib. (Page 9)
Notes: Pakistan-Afghanistan; USSR-Libya; Israel-
Egypt; Japan-China; Ethiopia (Page 10)
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REACTION TO OIL SPEECHES
Governments everywhere appear to be
trying to assess the implications of the
speeches you and Secretary Kissinger made
Monday on artifical rigging of oil prices.
Few have reacted publicly; many of them
are probably looking for ways to avoid
offending either the US or the oil ex-
porters.
The West Germans for example, have told the
press they would have no comment because they are
"striving to improve relations with the Arabs."
The British Department of Energy urged consultations
between producers and consumers, keeping the needs
of developing countries in view.
OPEC Responses
Oil exporters were defensive. Most, like Ira-
nian Prime Minister HOveyda, justified high oil
prices with references to the high cost of Western
manufactured goods. Representatives of OPEC were
most aggressive, denying that oil prices had been
used politically or that inflation began with oil
price hikes. These spokesmen argued that oil rates
had been adjusted because of inflation. OPEC, they
said, had acted only to reduce "windfall profits
made by international companies, mostly American
companies."
Sheikh Zayid, President of the United Arab
Emirates, was more conciliatory, supporting coopera-
tion to cut prices of all products in international
trade. He claimed that oil-exporting states are
ready to lower their prices in return for lower
prices on manufactured goods and food. Saudi Oil
Minister Yamani initially endorsed your appeal for
interdependence in world resources, but in a later
interview cautioned, "as a friend," that the US
should avoid actions that oil producers and devel-
oping states will view as "economic imperialism."
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Abd-al-Rahman al Atiqi warned
that consumer states could hurt their own interests
by forming a front. He explained that it would put
the oil states on alert to protect their own inter-
ests.
Venezuela
Twice within the past week, Venezuelan President
Carlos Andres Perez has publicly criticized your re-
marks on the world energy crisis and aggressively
defended the right of Venezuela and other countries
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to get a better deal for their raw materials on the
world market. In a public statement yesterday,
Perez again defended his administration's oil-pricing
policy. Some officials are saying Venezuela plans
new taxes that may have the effect of raising the
price of Venezuelan oil. Perez has made clear that
his administration is not picking a fight with the
US and wants to maintain cordial relations with
Washington.
Middle East Press
The Arab press has reacted sharply, giving wide
circulation to an Iraqi-controlled Beirut newspaper's
headline charging that you threatened to seize Arab
oil by force of arms. A Syrian-subsidized paper in
Beirut claimed that the US threatened nuclear war
over petroleum. Only one commentator has cautioned
that the Arab states cannot win a food-versus-oil
confrontation with the US. Amman radio highlighted
your call for a comprehensive world energy plan and
cooperation between exporters and importers.
One Israeli commentary has appeared, in the in-
fluential paper Ma'ariv, saying that US leaders are
wrong to assume that there is any usefulness to ap-
proaching Arab oil producers.
Communist Reaction
The Soviets have avoided reporting the proposals
on global food and energy policies and economic in-
terdependence contained in your speech to the UN last
week. Tass has reported only that your speech in
Detroit "contained a warning" to petroleum-producing
countries that had increased their prices. A Radio
Moscow broadcast in Arabic last night quoted the?
Kuwaitis as viewing your call for a conference of
Mestern oil-consuming states as the first step to-
ward creating a bloc "hostile" to the oil-exporting
countries.
As of this morning, there has been no mention
? on Peking Radio of either your speech in Detroit or
Secretary Kissinger's speech at the UN. Radio Hanoi
called the tone of your speech harsh, but its report
was brief and relatively straightforward.
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CAMBODIA
The potential for serious civil dis-
order in Phnom Penh is probably at its
highest level in over a year. Public dia.-
content, sparked earlier this month by
the dispute with South Vietnam over off-
shore oil exploration, has now been mag-
nified by unpopular economic reform meas-
ures.
Under these conditions, the return of Brigadier
General Lon Non--President Lon,Nol's younger brother--
to Phnom Penh is particularly untimely. Not only is
Lon Non anathema to leading politicians, such as
Sink Matak, he is also thoroughly distrusted by
students and teachers who hold him personally respon-
sible for disturbances in March 1973 in which a num-
ber of demonstrators were killed or wounded. Al-
though Lon Non
visit will only be a brief "vacation," US
officials believe that he will try to stay. His
presence in Phnom Penh is another dangerous ingredi-
ent in an already worrisome mix
The government's ability to deal with serious
disorders also could be affected by the very cam-
paign it has mounted to retain its UN seat. Prime
Minister Long Boret--by far the most able government
leader--has been abroad lobbying on the UN issue al-
most constantly since early August. When Boret re-
turns to Cambodia after addressing the General Assem-
bly next month, Deputy Prime Minister and Education
Minister Pan Sothi--who has been handling the gov-
ernment's relations with students and teachers--is
scheduled to depart for the UNESCO conference in
Paris. A credentials challenge is expected at this
conference which could strongly influence the outcome
of the General Assembly vote.
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USSR-CHINA
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TURKEY,
The Democratic Party yesterday re-
jected Prime Minister Ecevit's invitation
?to join in a coalition government, but
the Democrats appear to have left the
door open for further negotiations. The
wording of the rejection shows that the
Democrats balked at Ecevit's insistence
on an election this December.
Ecevit has little choice now but to give up on
the idea of an early election. The Democrats were
his best chance to obtain the parliamentary majority
necessary to approve an election. He may make an-
other proposal to the Democratic Party, possibly
suggesting an election next spring, and there are
signs that the Democrats would be more receptive to
such an offer.
If Ecevit is unable to move the Democrats into
a coalition, he may try to form a minority govern-
ment. If both efforts fail, President Koruturk
could ask Suleyman Demirel, leader of the opposition
Justice Party, to try to organize a coalition. In
any event, Ecevit will continue to head the care-
taker government until a new government is formed.
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BANGLADESH
Plotting to.overthrow the government
of prime Minister MUjibur Rahman is 'likely
to continue, despite the inabiliq of? the
opposition to demonstrate .effective popu?
lar support.
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N.
CHINA
IRAN
Arabian Sea
Quetta
PAKISTAN
New Delhi
Baluchistan
100 200
MILES
INDIA
.Karachi
Narb
556659 9-74
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NOTES
Pakistan-Afhanistan: Pakistani military opera-
tions against tribal insurgents in Baluchistan Prov-
ince will probably lead Afghanistan to increase its
anti-Pakistan propaganda even further, but there is
little evidence that either country is preparing for
hostilities. Despite the long-standing border dis-
pute between the two nations and Afghan sympathy for
Pakistani dissidents, Afghan President Daoud knows
his army is much weaker than Pakistan's. Moscow and
New Delhi have given Kabul substantial economic and
military assistance, but Daoud cannot be sure that
either would come to Afghanistan's rescue in the
event of a war with Pakistan.
USSR-Libra: More Soviet technicians reportedly
are scheduled to arrive in Libya soon, most of them
to set up training programs in the use of Soviet-
supplied missiles. The scope of the Soviet-Libyan
arms deal, which was signed last spring, and the
withdrawal of Egypt's military advisory mission may
have prompted Tripoli to accept additional Soviet
personnel. An expanded presence, however, would not
give Moscow the pervasive role that the Egyptians had.
The Libyans remain suspicious of Soviet intentions
and will keep Soviet advisers under close scrutiny.
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Japan-China: With aview toward boosting sales
to China, Tokyo's Export-Import Bank has, after pro-
tracted negotiations, formally approved its first
loan to Peking in ten years, a '$30-million credit
which will help finance Peking's purchase of a
300,000-metric-ton ethylene plant worth nearly $50
million, Over $80 million in other Exim Bank loans
to Peking are due for final approval this year, and
more ,loans are likely-to be apprOved next year. :Jap-
anese exports to China, although relatively small,
are growing rapidly. Sales totaled over $1 billion
in 1973 and are likely to reach $1,5 billion this
year, Japan has run a small surplus in its trade
with China, but large imports of Chinese crude oil
could reverse this trend by the end of the decade-
Ethiopia: The Confederation of Ethiopian Labor
Unions has called a general strike for today--its
response ?to the arrest of three of its leaders on
Monday. An extended strike would bring serious eco-
nomic dislocation and would increase chances for
more unrest, The strike call coincides with signs
of opposition outside the capital. A popular pro-
vincial governor, who has eluded arrest, has taken
to the countryside with .a few armed retainers. The
military regime reportedly has also provoked the
panakils, warlike nomads in northeastern Ethiopia.
The military ordered their leader to turn himself
in but backed down when threatened with armed tribal
resistance to any arrest attempt.
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