THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 SEPTEMBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007808
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 4, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
September 4, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I 1652
exemption category 5B(I
? declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
September 4, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
With a broad program to modernize the USSR's inter-
continental ballistic missile force
/ (Page 2)
South Vietnamese President Thieu's decision to
send .a high-level representative to the US to lobby
for more military aid reflects Saigon's growing con-
cern over its ability to contain increased commu-
nist attacks. (Page 5)
Ethiopia,
Morocco continues to improve its military posture
in the area adjacent to Spanish Sahara and Algeria.
(Page 8)
South Korea has mounted a strong anti-Japanese cam-
paign, demanding that Tokyo take action against
North Korean front organizations in Japan or face
a diplomatic break. (Page 9)
Notes on the USSR and Laos appear on Page 10.
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USSR
broad program to modernize the USSR's
intercontinental ballistic missile force
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USSR
Backfire aircraft
cow's new bomber is soon to become operational.
Mos-
(continued)
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Soviet Intentions
The Soviets probably intend to use the Backfire
as a strike aircraft. Flying from the USSR, the
Backfire could reach all of Europe, China, and the
sea approaches to the USSR on two-way missions with-
out aerial refueling. Some Backfires will probably
be equipped to perform reconnaissance and electronic
warfare missions.
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USSR41IDDLE EAST
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SOUTH VIETNAM
President Thieu's decision to send a high-level
representative to the US to lobby, for more military
aid reflects Saigon's growing concern over its abil-
ity to contain increased communist attacks. Although
some South Vietnamese commanders believe they can
cope with the current level of fighting, they are
less sure about the longer term, especially if the
communists decide to launch a large offensive some-
time next year.
Saigon has ordered fairly serious reductions
in aircraft and ammunition usage. Combat support
sorties and reconnaissance missions have in some
areas been reduced by as much as 50 percent; the
average reduction countrywide, according to the US
military mission in Saigon, is approximately 36 per-
cent. These reductions in air support have led some
commanders to request Saigon's approval to evacuate
outposts and forward positions that can be supplied
only by helicopter or airdrop.
Field and regional commanders have viewed the
reductions in combat support as the chief cause of
the government problems on the battlefield.
Saigon's Joint General Staff apparently believes,
however, that these reductions, and even further
cutbacks, can be accomplished without seriously
jeopardizing the country's defenses.
So far, the General Staff appears to have
President Thieu's support for its position.
If the
situation deteriorates seriously, requests by field
commanders for additional amounts of ammunition and
air support probably will be granted.
(continued)
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Meanwhile, the fighting goes on. The communists
have pushed government units back from several posi-
tions in the northern provinces and near Saigon,
and there are no signs of any letup. Although most
of the positions the government has lost are remote
and unimportant strategically, their fall nonethe-
less has allowed the communists to get closer to
towns, government bases, and roads whose loss or
interdiction would be serious.
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ETHIOPIA
The future of the Emperor and of the monarchy
as an institution are under sharp debate within the
powerful Armed Forces Coordinating Committee, ac-
cording to the US embassy in Addis Ababa, The Com-
mittee is the dominant political force in the coun-
try, even though it has no official status. Inten-
sified public attacks on Haile Selassie in recent
days were probably approved by the Committee.
Over the weekend, a well-organized group dem-
onstrated in front of the Emperor's palace and at
other points in the capital, calling for him to
step down. Posters depicting Haile Selassie as
indifferent to drought victims appeared in Addis
Ababa, and he reportedly was spat on and cursed
on his way to church. The Ethiopian radio and
press accused him of salting away large sums of
money in foreign banks.
Following the demonstrations, the Committee
issued a statement forbidding public protest and
ordered out armed police and military patrols.
The Committee apparently fears that further demon-
strations could get out of hand.
Faced with mounting censure, Haile Selassie
could choose to abdicate. The US embassy in London
has been informed by a British official that the
Emperor's grandson made an approach yesterday
through the British embassy in Addis Ababa to sound
out the possibility of political asylum for the
Emperor in the UK.
Although some military leaders still want to
retain the monarchy, the advocates of this course
appear to be losing out.
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MEDITERRANEAN SEA
ATLANTIC
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MOROCCO-SPAIN-ALGERIA
Morocco continues to improve its military pos-
ture in the area adjacent to Spanish Sahara and
Algeria. It is increasingly concerned that its cam-
paign to "recover" Spanish Sahara and secure its
southern borders will stimulate an Algerian military
reaction.
The commander of Moroccan forces in the south
claims that Algerian troops have moved some border
markers to the west. He has stated he intends to
re-establish control in these areas by moving in
Moroccan troops.
As regards Spain, King Hassan apparently does
not want to close the door to further diplomatic
contacts and is unlikely to resort to force as long
as negotiations are under way.(
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JAPAN - SOUTH KOREA
In the wake of the attempted assassination of
President Pak last month, Seoul has mounted a strong
anti-Japanese campaign, demanding that Tokyo take
action against North Korean front organizations in
Japan or face a diplomatic break.
Seoul says, Tokyo must fully investigate the Jap.a-.
nese aspects of the assassination case and severely
restrict the activities of pro-Pyongyang organiza-
tions in Japan. Seoul implies that Japanese fail-
ure to do this would likely lead to a diplomatic
break.
Tokyo may attempt to reduce the heat by issu-
ing a conciliatory statement, but no early resolu-
tion is in sight. The Japanese are willing to in-
vestigate, but they will probably not be able to
confirm all the South Korean allegations of North
Korean involvement, let alone satisfy the other de-
mands.
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Routine trade and aid dealings between the two
countries have already been adversely affected, but
there is no evidence that Tokyo is planning to mod-
ify its policy of diplomatic support for Seoul at
the UN General Assembly session later this month.
A formal diplomatic break between Tokyo and Seoul
anytime soon appears unlikely.
Relations between the two could become even
more tense if the Japanese prove unresponsive to
Pak's demands. In this event, Seoul's
verbal blasts could escalate into action.
For example, the South Korean ambassador could be
withdrawn and the Japanese ambassador expelled,
Japanese fishing boats could be harassed in Korean
waters, or rigorous immigration controls could be
imposed. Even in the absence of a diplomatic break,
continuation of the present level of bickering prob-
ably would, over time, lead the Japanese in the
direction of a more even-handed posture vis-a-vis
the two Koreas.
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NOTES
USSRg
Laos g Phoumi Vongvichit, communist deputy
prime ffiaister and foreign minister, apparently re-
gards the Lao political and security situation as
sufficiently stabilized to permit his absence from
the country.
/ Phoumi and his non-communist counterpart,
Leuam Insisiengmay, are jointly heading the coali-
tion government during Souvanna's absence. The US
ambassador reports that Phoumi is being reasonable
and cooperative in this role.
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