THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 17 JULY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007767
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: July 17, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
July 17, 1974
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Exempt from general
declauification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 58(11.121(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
July 17, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Ousted Cypriot President Makarios is expected to
arrive in London this morning, presumably en route
to UN headquarters in New York. On the island,
the Greek-led National Guard is consolidating its.
take-over. Turkey is making political and military
preparations for intervention in case conditions
it considers intolerable should develop. (Page 1)
Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka is trying to limit
the damage of recent cabinet resignations. He has
named his firmest ally, Masayoshi Ohira, to replace
Takeo Fukuda as finance minister. (Page 3)
A recent upsurge in fighting in northern South Viet-
nam appears to be the start of a Communist campaign
to seize territory during the good summer weather.
The Communists may make some gains in remote areas;
they probably will not mount a major effort against
the populated lowlands or the city of Hue. (Page 4)
In North Vietnam, the harvests will probably fall
below those of last year, when the North Vietnamese
produced only about three fourths of their food
grain requirements. They will have to keep depend-
ing on imports, which reached record levels in the
first half of this year. (Page 5)
Saudi King Faysal has protested to Ambassador Akins
over indications that Israel does not intend to
withdraw from occupied Arab lands. (Page 6)
The new Portuguese prime minister has encountered
unexpected difficulty in putting together a new
cabinet satisfactory to both the military and the
leftists. He plans to announce his choices today.
(Page 7)
Notes on the USSR, Chile, and on a West European
program for production of enriched uranium appear
on Page 8.
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CYPRUS
Ousted President Makarios, who left Cyprus yes-
terday with British assistance, is expected ?to reach
London this morning. He apparently is en route to
UN headquarters in New York.
Greek-led Cypriot National Guard troops report-
edly now control all areas of the island and have
lifted the curfew.
The Greeks are scheduled to conduct today the
regular semi-annual rotation of the 950-man contin-
gent of regular Greek forces on Cyprus. Any effort
to increase the size of the force or to upgrade its
equipment would be regarded by Turkey as highly pro-
vocative.
Turkish intervention in Cyprus is already a
possibility, and Ankara is making all the necessary
political and military preparations. Ground forces
are being moved into southern Turkey/
/Conditions under which Prime Minis-
ter Ecevit might order military action include:
--Direct attacks on Turkish Cypriots.
--A Cyprus declaration of union with Greece.
--A patently unacceptable government in Nicosia.
The Greek government continues to claim that
developments on Cyprus are an internal matter and
that Greece maintains its principle of "noninter-
vention in the affairs of other countries."
Sev-
eral members of the new cabinet announced by "Pres-
ident" Sampson have been open supporters of union
with Greece.
Ata short and inconclusive session of the UN
Security Council yesterday, the Cypriot representa-
tive demanded that troops from outside-the island
stop interfering in Cyprus' affairs. He was sup-
ported by the Soviet representative.
The NATO Council also discussed the possible
involvement of Greece and Turkey in the Cyprus
situation. Most members felt that the burden was
on Athens to prove its claims that its policy has
not changed.
1
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USSR
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JAPAN
Prime Minister Tanaka is trying to limit the
damage of recent cabinet resignations. He has
named his firmest ally, Masayoshi Ohira, to replace
Takeo Fukuda as finance minister.
Toshio Kimura, an experienced party stalwart,
has been named foreign minister to succeed Ohira.
Kimura recently worked closely with Ohira to im-
prove Japanese relations with Peking, and there is
little reason to expect any major changes in Japan's
foreign policy. For the moment at least, Trade
Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone is also sticking with
Tanaka.
Economic policy decisions may be the next im-
portant test of Tanaka's hold on the leadership.
Later this month, the government will have to de-
cide whether the level of rice-support prices for
Japan's politically influential rice farmers should
exceed the current anti-inflation guidelines.
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NORTH VIETNAM
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1. l..111_ 1 _I_ AL I 1
SOUTH VIETNAM
A recent upsurge in fighting in northern South
Vietnam appears to be'the start,of a Communist cam-
paign to seize territory in Quang Tri and Thua Thien
provinces during the good summer weather. Inter-
cepted messages and troop deployments suggest that
the fighting will be heaviest west and south of Hue.
The Communists, began preparing in late spring
for increased tactical activity. The North Vietnam-
ese moved large quantities of war materiel to units
in northern South Vietnam, adding to the already
large stockpiles accumulated after the cease-fire.
In early June the Communists activated a new mili-
tary front headquarters for tactical control over-
all combat forces in the two northern provinces.
The front commands three infantry divisions, but
communications suggest that only two will see much
action.
Government forces in the area are expecting
increased Communist attacks and have been moving
to counter them. The South Vietnamese have been
able to push the. Communists back in the southern
part of the region, and government units defending
the approaches to Hue are a match for Communist
forces in the area. The Communists may make some
territorial gains in remote areas; they probably
will not mount a major effort against the populated
lowlands or Hue itself.
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NORTH VIETNAM
The spring and the fall harvests will probably
fall below those of last year, when North Vietnam
produced only about three fourths of its food grain
requirements. Harvesting of the spring rice crop
is about a month behind schedule, and the crop will
probably be some 10-20 percent below last year's
moderately successful harvest of an estimated 1.2
million tons.
Hanoi is concerned with distributing food and
rebuilding rice stocks that were drawn down further
this spring when serious rice shortages were reported
in some areas. The shortages prior to the harvest
were more severe than usual because of the disap-
pointing harvest last autumn.
The spring harvest will help ease the food
situation, but Hanoi remains dependent on imports,
which reached record levels in the first half of
this year. Seaborne imports of 480,000 tons from
January to June were nearly double the amount shipped
during the same period in 1973. Peking's overland
shipment schedules of some 175,000 tons were 10 per-
cent higher than last year.
Continuing large-scale imports are slated for
the summer months, when food imports normally fall
to a seasonal low.
Some reduction in output of the autumn crop
is almost certain because of the delay in the spring
harvest. Some autumn rice seedlings reportedly
were ready for transplanting in June, but the fields
were not ready. This further increases the possi-
bility that weather will damage the autumn crop.
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SAUDI ARABIA
King Faysal has protested to Ambassador Akins
over what he asserts are indications that Israel
does not intend to withdraw from occupied Arab
lands. Faysal was reacting to exaggerated accounts
of Israeli plans tobuild more strategic.settle-
ments in occupied territories and to alleged tough
Israeli statements on peace terms.
The Saudi ruler seems to have been interested
primarily in re-emphasizing his own strong views
on the need for a substantial Israeli withdrawal
from occupied Arab land and--most important--major
concessions on the status of Jerusalem. He remains
convinced that the US could impose terms on Israel
if it wished but believes the US will take a less
active part as the danger of renewed hostilities
recedes.
Faysal also discussed oil prices with Ambas-
sador Akins, complaining that Saudi Arabia was not
getting enough support from consumer states in its
campaign to bring prices down. He was particularly
rankled by criticism from. Iran, and he called upon
the US to press Tehran hard for price reductions.
In a separate conversation, Saudi Oil Minister
Yamani said he was having second thoughts about his
efforts to force world prices down by boosting
Saudi production. He said he thought other OPEC
countries could offset Saudi production by decreas-
ing their own output. He also professed concern
that unilateral action by Saudi Arabia could cause
strains in OPEC and further isolate the Saudis.
Neither Faysal nor Yamani linked oil policy to
progress toward a Middle East settlement, although
Yamani, in an earlier exposition of the King's
views, reminded Ambassador Akins that there is
such a link.
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PORTUGAL
Prime Minister Vasco Goncalves has encountered
unexpected difficulty inputting together a new
cabinet. The trouble may stem from having both to
make room for additional military appointees and
to satisfy leftist demands for certain posts. He
said last night that his choices would be announced
today.
The outgoing socialist foreign minister, Mario
Soares, told the US ambassador that the cabinet
change was artificially brought on by the former
prime minister, presumably acting on behalf of
President Spinola or "reactionary forces." Soares
claimed that no really serious issues had divided
the former cabinet or impaired its ability to gov-
ern.
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_
NOTES
USSR: The Soviets will probably bring down
the cosmonauts aboard Soyuz 14 in the next few days.
Two space support.ships in the Atlantic will be
making port calls beginning late this, week, and
Soyuz may descend before the ships leave their
present stations. The.spacecraft was launched on
July 3 and docked with the Salyut 3 space station
the next day.. Salyut is expected to remain in or-
bit after Soyuz is brought down; the Soviets may
send more cosmonauts to the space station in the
coming weeks.
Chile: Consumer prices jumped more than 20
percent last month. This brings inflation for the
first half of the year to more than 145 percent,
the world's worst. Wage increases averaging more
than 20 percent went into effect on July 1, but
the real income of most Chileans continues to de-
cline.
Enriched Uranium: The British, Dutch, and
West German participants in Urenco--a program for
producing enriched uranium--apparently have com-
mitted Urenco's enrichment capacity to domestic
users through 1980.- Urenco will not be able to
supply nuclear power reactor fuel to other coun-
tries in ompetition with major international pro-
ducers-until at least 1921. It is negotiating ten-
year-supply contracts for its enrichment services,
which involve the first commercial use of gas cen-
trifuges, even though it is just starting construc-
tion of two enrichment plants-.-one in the UK and
the other in the Netherlands.
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Top Secret
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