THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 16 JULY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007766
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: July 16, 1974

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010014-6
The President's Daily Brief
July 16, 1974
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010014-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010014-6
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( 1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012200010014-6
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
July 16, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Soviet defense spending is estimated to have grown
by more than 5 percent in 1973. Such an increase
may also occur in 1974 and 1975 and will be due
primarily to modernization of the Strategic Rocket
Forces. (Page 1)
Archbishop Makarios appears to have survived the
coup on Cyprus, but he has been replaced as presi-
dent by Nicos Sampson, a tight-wing publisher who
espouses union with Greece. The Turkish community
appears to have been largely uninvolved in the
fighting.. The Soviets have indicated they will
back Makarios if he is alive, or a resistance move-
ment if he is dead. (Page 2)
'Ailing Prime Minister Souvanna of Laos has in-
structed his two deputy prime ministers to avoid
action on important issues. (Page 3)
NATO allies in the EC may resist, at the North At-
lantic Council meeting tomorrow, some aspects of a
US proposal to review the Western position toward
the conference on European security. (Page 4)
Finance Minister Fukuda resigned this morning prob-
ably as part of an effort to bring down Prime Min-
ister Tanaka. (Page 5)
Soviet
Page 6.
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USSR
Soviet defense spending is estimated to have
grown by more than 5 percent in 1973. Increases
almost as large may occur in 1974 and 1975. Such
rates are substantially above the average annual
growth of less than 3 percent since 1960.
Soviet defense expenditures (not including
"civilian" space programs) will probably total
about 25.5 billion rubles in 1974. The cost of
such an effort in US terms would be approximately
$93 billion.
The increase in spending from 1972 to 1975 is
due primarily to extensive modernization programs
of the Strategic Rocket Forces'. The Soviets are
replacing _a large. number of the SS-11s With an im-
proved version. In addition, over the next several
years the Soviets are expected to begin replacing
the SS-.9s, the remainder of the SS-11s, and SS-13
missiles'. These programs will triple expenditures
for new weapons for the _Strategic Rocket. Forces in
1974 over those Of 1972. Expenditures are expected
to remain high throughout the decade.
Although the size of the developmental effort
now under way in the USSR is striking, the general
pattern of spending since 1970 is consistent with
past cycles of Soviet defense spending. For ex-
ample, Soviet defense expenditures grew rapidly in
the second half of the 1960s with the deployment
of the SS-9 and SS-11 systems. Total defense
spending then stabilized in 1970-72 with the com-
pletion of these programs, despite a rapid expan-
sion in reearch and development for the follow-on
missile systems. Expenditures are expected to be-
gin leveling off again in about 1976 at a plateau
some 7 percent above present spending. For the
1970s as a whole, estimated expenditures for Soviet
defense are expected to grow at about the long-run
historical average.
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BULGARIA
ALBANIA
ITALY GREECE
; c;"
. ,
Za
e ns cri
? s
C rete
MEDITERRANEAN
nkara
CYPRUS
SYRIA
LEBAN N
LIBYA
Akrotin
CYPRUS
1--1 UK Sovereign base area
L ?J
CD Area of Turkish population
10 20
MILES
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A. 111E, E NI I VIVI-. 1
CYPRUS
The Greek power grab in Cyprus apparently failed
to achieve its basic objective, the elimination of
President Makarios. A number of reports indicate
:the archbishop is in Paphos, in the western part of
the island. He has been replaced as president by
NicOS Sampson, a right-wing publisher and parlia-
mentarian Sampson will not be pOpular on Cyprus
or in Turkey. Sampson is remembered widely .for his
murderous exploits during the uprising againstBrit-
ish authority in the 1950s. He is devoted to the
union of Cyprus with Greece.
Fighting between the Greek-officered National
Guard and forces loyal to Makarios reportedly ebbed
last night.
Turkey's National Security Council met yester-
day. No action has yet been announced by Prime Min-
ister Ecevit. Turkey, like Greece and the UK, is
a "guarantor power" of Cyprus and has the right uni-
laterally or collectively with the others to preserve
the status quo on the island.
The British government has expressed grave con-
cern about the situation to Athens and Ankara and
stressed its implications for the stability of the
eastern Mediterranean and the cohesion of the At-
lantic Alliance
Moscow last night broadcast a statement cau-
tioning Athens to stop interfering on Cyprus, but
avoiding any threats. Tas reported Soviet demarches
to Washington,. London, and Paris, indicating that
the Soviets expect theWest to help resolve the
situation. The statement clearly showed the So-
viets would Support PreSident Makarios return to
power if he is alive, and implied that Moscow would
back an opposition movement if Makarios is dead.
The large,- Well-organized Cyprus Communist Party
would form ati obvious base for such a movement.
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LAOS
Ailing Prime Minister Souvanna has instructed
his two deputy prime ministers to make only day-to-
day decisions and avoid action on important issues.
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NATO-CSCE
NATO allies in the EC are likely to resist
some aspects of the US proposal to review the West-
ern negotiating position in the CSCE talks when it
is discussed at the North Atlantic Council meeting
on July 17. last
week the Nine EC political directors agreed:
--to avoid the appearance of a bloc-to-bloc
approach in the negotiations;
--to begin the current review of Western posi-
tions in Geneva, the site of the security
talks, rather than at NATO headquarters in
Brussels.
The Nine political directors also were inclined
to agree that the decision to hold the CSCE's final
stage at the summit level should depend on the gen-
eral state of East-West relations at the end of
the current stage of the conference, as well as on
a satisfactory outcome of this stage.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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JAPAN
Japan's finance minister Takeo Fukuda resigned
this morning, throwing the Tanaka government into
political turmoil. According to a late Japanese
press report, the announcement came after Prime
Minister Tanaka and Fukuda met privately but failed
to resolve their differences.
Fukuda, a long time aspirant to the prime min-
istry and an important factional leader in the rul-
ing Liberal Democratic Party, has been sharply-crit-
ical of Tanaka's handling of the recent upper house
election campaign, from which the party emerged
with only a bare majority.
Fukuda's resignation almost certainly will
force a major shakeup of the cabinet
One of the three Fukuda fac-
tion members in the cabinet--State Minister Mori--
also resigned today and the other two may well be
planning similar actions.
Former deputy prime minister Miki has recently.
resigned
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NOTE
USSR: Six Soviet minesweepers and five
auxiliaries--elements of the Soviet mine-clearing
group--entered the Egyptian Red Sea port of Eurghada
on Sunday.
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Top Secret
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