THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 12 JULY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007763
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: July 12, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
July 12, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 513(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
July 12, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Soviet Union/
/ (Page 1)
The Egyptians are interpreting the Soviet Union's
abrupt postponement yesterday of Foreign Minister
Fahmi's trip to Moscow as a ploy to embarrass them
with other Arab governments. (Page 3)
Soviet party General Secretary Brezhnev left Moscow,
apparently for the Crimea, the day after the conclu-
sion of his summit meetings with President Nixon.
(Page 4)
After dismissing the Portuguese cabinet yesterday,
President Spinola said the new government--which
he hopes to announce by Saturday--would again be a
coalition, including military members. (Page 5)
The USSR and Somalia signed a treaty of friendship
and cooperation during President Podgorny's current
visit to Mogadiscio. (Page 6)
In Italy, the Christian Democrats remain sharply
divided over the implications of the setbacks they
have suffered in the past two months, and party
leader Fanfani has become a target of the party's
left wing. (Page 7)
French Foreign Minister Sauvagnargues is in Moscow
for a routine review of political and economic re-
lations following the change of governments in
Paris. (Page 8)
An official of South Africa's Atomic Energy Board
has claimed that his country is capable of con-
structing an atomic bomb. (Page 9)
In Israel, a panel of nuclear experts appointed by
Prime Minister Rabin has concluded that it would be
difficult for the Egyptians to use the nuclear
technology to be acquired from the US for mili-
tary purposes. (Page 10)
Notes on Romania, Pakistan, France, and Japan appear
on Pages 10 and 11.
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USSR
(continued)
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EGYPT-USSR
The Egyptians are interpreting the Soviet Union's
abrupt postponement yesterday of Foreign Minister
Fahmi's trip to Moscow as a p ? to embarrass them
with other Arab governments.
President Sadat is considering
strong response.
The Palestine Liberation Organization announced
yesterday that Brezhnev has renewed an invitation
to fedayeen leader Arafat to visit Moscow late this
month. Since the date of Brezhnev's invitation to
Arafat is not known, it is not possible to attribute
a direct relationship between it and the cancellation
of Fahmi's visit. Publicity given the invitation,
however, will heighten Egyptian suspicions that Mos-
cow is seeking to isolate them from other Arabs.
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USSR
General Secretary Brezhnev left Moscow, appar-
ently for a vacation in the Crimea, the day after
concluding his summit meetings with President Nixon.
Brezhnev flew to Simferopol on the morning of July 4.
Brezhnev's decision to leave Moscow for a rest
immediately after the summit may account for the
last-minute cancellations of visits by Pakistani
Prime Minister Bhutto and the foreign ministers of
Indonesia and Egypt. All were due in Moscow during
the first half of this month.
The next major event on Brezhnevis calendar is
a trip to Poland, scheduled to begin next Friday.
The full program planned for that visit will provide
a good indication of the severity of his health prob-
lems and a test of his recuperative powers.
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PORTUGAL
After dismissing the entire Portuguese cabinet
yesterday, President Spinola told newsmen the new
government would again be a coalition, including
military members. He said he has contacted thel new
prime minister and hopes to announce the new govern-
ment by Saturday.
The cabinet is expected to be predominantly military.
The socialist foreign minister, Mario Soares, report-
edly is slated for reappointment so he can continue
negotiations to end rebellions in Portuguese Africa
and settle the status of the overseas provinces.
Spinola also announced that the policy of the
government will be the policy of the armed forces,
an indication that he has abandoned for now any plans
to enhance his own position by reducing the role of
the Armed Forces Movement.
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USSR-SOMALIA
The USSR and Somalia yesterday signed a treaty
of friendship and cooperation to highlight President
Podgorny's current visit tb_Mogadiscio.. Neither
the text nor amplifying details are yet available.
Friendship treaties of-recentyears'between the
USSR and Egypt, Iraq, and India callfor closermil-
itary, political, and economic cooperation and con-
tam n provisions for consultation in the event of
war.
The Soviets had pressed the Somalis for a
treaty of friendship and cooperation for several
years, but MogadisCio had refused fearing such an
agreement would identify it too closely with Moscow,
erode its claims to nonalignmentin Africa,and
alienate potential benefactors in the.Arab-world. .
The Somalis apparently have decided their heavy de-
pendence on Soviet economic and military aid'now.
requires a closer relationship with Moscow. They
may have extracted pledges of substantial additional
assistance from Moscow in return for agreeing to
sign the treaty.
One of Moscow's objectives.in.pressing.for a
treaty reportedly was to formalize its access to
port facilities at-Berbera. The Russians have
also been assisting in the construction of an air-
field that could be used as a.base.for long-range
reconnaissance aircraft.
In a speech last night, Podgorny_sought to
calm concern among Somalia's neighbors--particularly
Ethiopia--by saying that the treaty was not aimed
at third parties. Despite such assurances, the
Ethiopians will see the treaty as portending in-
creased Somali aggressiveness in pushing territorial
claims. Nations that have been concerned over So-
viet activities in the Indian Ocean area will re-
gard the treaty as an indication of the USSR's in-
tention to expand its influence in the region.
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ITALY
Christian Democratic leaders remain sharply
divided over the implications of the setbacks suf-
fered by their party in the last ,two months, and
they have postponed their party's National Council
meeting, originally set for today, until July 18.
The party's left wing and some party moderates
view recent defeats as-eVidence that the Christian
Democrats Must respond more effectively than in the
past to the public's desire for more innovative so-
cial and economic programs. The feeling is also
widespread that the party should find younger faces
to replace, or at 'least augment, the, older person-
alities who have dominated the party for years.
The debate centers on 66-year-old party leader
Amintore Fanfani. Fanfani, long associated with
left-of-center elements, recently has moved toward
the center and has become a target of the left.
The effectiveness of the left's opposition to him
depends mainly on the position taken by Foreign
Minister Aldo Moro, the most influential of the
party's left-of-center leaders. There are signs
that? Moro will join the opposition to Fanfani, but
he may not make a decision for some weeks.
The labor confederations, meanwhile, will meet
next week to formulate an official response to the
government's austerity program. Labor is likely to
press for sharp cuts-in,the vast state bureaucracy--
one of the Christian Democrats' main power bases.
The Communist Party is divided over how best
to exploit the situation. The party secretariat
has reportedly ordered, however, that no action be
taken which would worsen the Christian Democrats'
internal crisis or lead to a change of government'
before fall. Communist chief Berlinguer feels that
overly aggressive Communist moves at this time
might encourage a shift to the right within the
Christian Democratic Party.
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FRANCE-USSR
French Foreign Minister Sauvagnargues is in
Moscow for a routine review of political and eco-
nomic relations following the change of governments
in Paris. No specific agreements are expected to
come from three days of talks that will probably
cover a wide range, including:
-CSCE, on which Sauvagnargues will resist
Soviet pressure for the third stage to be
held.at the summit level;
--mBFR, on which he will simply restate the
French position;
--Soviet briefing on the Nixon-Brezhnev sum-
mit, by which Moscow would be complying with
consultation provisions of its 1970 protocol
with France;
--the West Berlin environment office issue;
and
--the Middle East.
The foreign minister's visit to Moscow coin-
cides with a meeting of the Franco-Soviet Grande
Commission in Paris, at which a major contract for
nuclear reactors may be signed.
On July 10 the Grande Commission issue a pro oco
on peaceful uses of atomic energy for 1974-75, set-
ting guidelines for cooperation in nuclear produc-,
tion of electricity.
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SOUTH AFRICA
An official of South Africa's Atomic Energy
Board announced Wednesday that his country is capa-
bleof.constructing an atomic bomb but that its
policy is to usenuclear knowledge for peaceful
purposes only.
South Africa may. have done research in the
nuclearweapons field, but is not now capable of
producing a nuclear weapon. Pretoria has one nu-
clear research reactor, supplied by the US, under
International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.
Pretoria plans to build a nuclear power station,
but this would not be operational until the early
1980s.
South Africa is not now able to produce.en-
riched uranium. A pilot enrichment plant will go
into production this year, but its product will
not be suitable for making nuclear weapons. Never-
theless, the process it will use could be altered--
as can all-uranium enrichment methods--to produce
weapons grade uranium in the future.
South Africa lacks the other facilities neces-
sary for nuclear weapons manufacture. If a deci-
sion is made to startra weapons program, it would
take several years to build the needed facilities.
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NOTES
Israel: A two-man panel of nuclear experts
appointed by Prime Minister Rabin has assessed the
possibility that Cairo could use for military pur-
poses the nuclear technology to be acquired from
the US. The experts concluded that it would be
difficult for the Egyptians to switch a reactor for
power production 'operating under US-imposed safe-
guards to the manufacture of nuclear arms. They
reported that each function requires completely
different know-how and scientists with different
qualifications. The report should help calm the
Israeli public, which has been nervous about the
US-Egyptian nuclear arrangement. Rabin probably
feels the report vindicates his government's low-
key reaction, for which it had come under severe
attack from the political opposition and much of
the press.
Romania: Factory workers set at least one
industrial fire in Romania recently, the first con-
firmed case in some time of serious worker-insti-
gated sabotage. Further incidents could mean that
Ceausescu faces some of the most serious popular
discontent in his nearly ten years of rule. The
regime's main response has been to tighten secu-
rity at industrial facilities. Ceausescu's empha-
sis on developing heavy industry at the expense
of improved living conditions and the production
of consumer goods is an important factor in worker
dissatisfaction. Romania's living standard is the
lowest in Eastern Europe, except for Albania.
Pakistan: Prime Minister Bhutto has asked
China to speed up arms deliveries at the same time
that he is pressing Washington to lift its embargo
on offensive weapons for Pakistan. He based both
requests on alleged Indian troop and air movements,
a military alert in Afghanistan, and the delivery
of large quantities of Soviet military aid to
Kabul. US embassies in Islamabad, Kabul, and New
Delhi report no indications of unusual military
activity that would support Bhutto's allegations.
Although there has been a heavy flow of Soviet
materiel to Kabul, the Afghan armed forces have
shown little ability to use this equipment effec-
tively.
(continued)
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France:
Japan: Deputy Prime Minister Takeo Miki has
resigned to protest Prime Minister Tanaka's han-
dling of the recent upper house election campaign,
according to press reports. The resignation rep-
resents a serious challenge to Tanaka's leadership,
in the wake of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's
setback in the election last Sunday. Miki is an
important factional leader and long a prime mini-
sterial aspirant. There are indications that Fi-
nance Minister Fukuda, Tanaka's chief rival in the
party, is also considering resigning. At a minimum,
this would force Tanaka to reshuffle his cabinet,
but the resignations of these important party fac-
tional leaders could threaten his continuation as
party chief and Prime Minister.
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