THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 20 APRIL 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007728
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: April 20, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
April 20, 1974
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Exempt from general
declauification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B1 1 5,1 2).(3 )
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
April 20, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Heavy fighting along the Golan front increases the
risk that one side or the other will undertake major
offensive action. (Page 1)
While the Soviets cannot take much comfort from
President Sadat's recent speech, they may view it as
an indication that Egyptian anti-Soviet rhetoric will
be toned down. (Page 4)
Li Te-sheng, one of China's former vice chairmen,
appears to be the latest victim in the anti-Lin,
anti-Confucius campaign. (Page 5)
Prime Minister Gandhi is firmly backing better rela-
tions with Washington and does not expect this to
impair India's close ties with Moscow. (Page 6)
Cambodian Government forces are trying to regain
the initiative on several widely separated battle
fronts. (Page 8)
Sri Lanka's opposition party has called for a number
of peaceful protest meetings on April 21 to protest
the government's inability to deal with economic
problems. (Page 9)
Notes on the USSR, Iraq, and Niger appear on Page 10.
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ISRAEL-SYRIA
Fighting along the Golan front yesterday was
marked by heavy Israeli air activity and intensive
action by Syrian air defense forces. This increases
the risk that one side or the other will undertake
major offensive action.
Israeli Defense Minister Dayan told Israeli
television audiences yesterday that Tel Aviv believes
there are no political limitations on its military
activity and that it will feel free to undertake
"territorial expansion" if Syria attempts to capture
territory. On the other hand, Dayan also said that,
while Tel Aviv will not fold under military pressure,
it would not want to do anything to upset the nego-
tiating process.
(continued)
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Mount Hermon has.been the focus of contention
for both Israel and Syria. Both sides apparently
are bent on establishing their domination in the
area, and neither appears willing to back off. In
the process, the scope of the fighting has grown
from small commando actions to clashes involving
larger numbers of ground units as well as large
numbers of aircraft and surface-to-air missile
units.
The intensity of the fighting yesterday in-
creases the possibility either that Syria will
initiate a thrust against the Israeli salient or
that Israel will undertake pre-emptive action to
prevent this. Syrian air strikes in the southern
part of the Israeli salient for the past two days,
as well as the fighting reported south of the sa-
lient yesterday, suggest that the conflict is
beginning to spill over into other sectors of the
front.
Israeli aircraft were active early today over
the Golan Heights and northern Israel.
This
initial activity is similar to yesterday ?morning,
when Israeli fighters were airborne at the crack
of dawn.
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USSR
the course of events in the Middle East, and
especially lnlEgypt, has caused disagreement in the
Politburo. Such friction seems highly probable and
may reduce Brezhnev's freedom, at least in the short...,
term, to pursue detente initiatives.
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' Brezhnev, however, continues to have important .
support in the leadership. Yugoslav President Tito,
who is a fairly astute observer of the Soviet scene;
recently commented to Senator Kennedy that Brezhnev.
is
is in a strong personal position. Tito asserted
Brezhnev had placed his men in key positions and
that it seems unlikely Brezhnev would face a threat
to his personal power position from any quarter in
the foreseeable future.
Moreover, in our judgment, Brezhnev has proved
to be adept at detecting shifting sentiments in the
leadership and pulling back from exposed positions.
? Gromyko, as foreign minister, is a logical
target for recrimination within the Politburo in
connection with the Middle East and with the course
of detente in general. He would be a prime candi-
date if someone has to be sacrificed. His close
identification with Brezhnev as a member of the
latter's foreign policy "team," however, lends him
greater political strength than he might otherwise
have. .
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USSR-EGYPT
The Soviets are not likely to take much comfort
? from President Sadat's Speech on April 18. They would
like to think that his reference to improving relations
with the USSR means that, at least, he is prepared to
tone down the Egyptian anti-Soviet rhetoric of the
past few weeks.
Moscow will probably view Sadat's reference to
the diversification of Egypt's weapons as a bluff, given
the problems involved in replacing the range of Soviet
'weapons in the Egyptian arsenal. Moscow, nevertheless',
will interpret the reference as a signal that Sadat
will not switch policy in exchange for Soviet hardware.
Sadat's assertion of Egypt's neutrality and his
positive references to the US will also be seen as
evidence that he does not plan to abandon his efforts
to achieve a more balanced foreign policy; While this
comes as no surprise, the Soviets may have hoped that
the Gromyko-Fahmi talks would have had a greater impact
on Egyptian policy.
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CHINA
Li Te-sheng, who headed the army's General
Political Department until his transfer to command
the Shenyeng Military Region last December, appears
to be the latest victim in the anti-Lin, anti-
Confucius campaign. Wall posters labeling him a
follower of disgraced Defense Minister Lin Piao
have appeared in several provinces as well as in
military academies and possibly in Peking. The at-
tacks represent_a dramatic reversal of Li's polit-
ical fortunes. He was one of five vice chairmen
chosen at the party congress last August and had
been politically active until the rotation ?of mili-
tary region commanders.
Whatever the reasons for Li's fall, it is clear
that attacks on a number of military men have been
authorized at the highest party levels. An authori-
tative article in Red Flag, written under what may
be a pseudonym for Mao, sharply criticized Confucius
for allowing "feudal princes" to exercise "sovereign
powers" in their own regions, and criticized those
who would restore this system.
Peking does, not now seem overly, concerned if
wall posters are seen by foreigners. They are easily
visible to.anyone traveling by rail, and
their Chinese guides will-
ingly translated some that attacked Li. Li Hsien-
nien, a Politburo member and one of Chou En-lai's
principal lieutenants, jokingly told a Western dele-
gation leaving for a provincial tour that they would
see "many big character posters, but none attacking
you." There.have been reports of scattered factional
violence, but the campaign generally remains under
the control of national and' provincial party organ-
izations.
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Prime Minister Gandhi is firmly backing better
relations with Washington and does not expect this to
'impair India's close ties with Moscow.
While New Delhi has shown interest in improved
relations since late 1972, only in recent months has
Mrs. Gandhi's attitude toward the US been so positive.
In large part this reflects India's need for all the
economic assistance it can get to offset soaring
petroleum prices and food and fertilizer shortages.
The Indians have recently made approaches to Washing-
ton for assistance "to keep our chins above water,"
in Foreign Minister Swaran Singh's words.
Next to economic matters, New Delhi's attention
is focused on ways to forestall a naval buildup in the
Indian Ocean. India has asked both Washington and
Moscow to consider an agreement of mutual restraint.
New Delhi feels its chances of bringing this about
would be enhanced by better relations with Washington.
(continued).
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Despite her more favorable attitude toward the
US, Mrs. Gandhi has told that
India has the best possible relationship with Moscow,
and she appears fully confident of its continuing
support. She gives no sign, however, of acceding to
-Moscow's long-standing request for special naval
facilities at Indian ports.
In sum, New Delhi appears to have decided that
its interests are best served by a more balanced
foreign policy.
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CAMBODIA
The government is trying to regain the initia-
tive on widely separated battle fronts. Cambodian
Army troops. at Kampot in the past few days have
slightly expanded their northern and southeastern
perimeters, but have been unable to reopen the water-.
Way from the south. The Communists apparently are
trying to move reinforcements to the area.
Along Route 5 some ten miles north of Phnom
Penh, army units have easily retaken several out-
posts lost late last week. Government forces, hoW-
ever, are meeting stiff opposition southeast of the
capital, where Communist rocket sites may be located..
The army high command is sending, troops to the
provincial capital of Prey Veng in anticipation of
attacks there late this" month or early in May, Ac-
cording to an intercepted message, over four Commu-
nist regiments-are scheduled. to participate. More
than 3,000 government troops are now in Prey Veng,
and the high command is planning operations to dis-
rupt:the Communist preparations.
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SRI LANKA
The opposition United National Party (UNP) has
called for 150 "peaceful protest" meetings on April
21-to protest the inability of Mrs. $andaranaike's
government to deal effectively with economic prob-
lems. Rally leaders.repOrtedly will demand her
resignation and call for new elections.
Mrs.-.Bandaranaike, aware of popular dissatis-
faction over food scarcities, has placed the armed
forces on alert. She has also pushed through a law
providing harsh punishment for anyone making state-
ments 'likely to cause public alarm or public dis-
orders." A cabinet decision banning the UNP meetings
is expected._
Any attempts by the government to suppress the
gatherings would increase the chances of violence
and reinforce the UNP's resolve to begin a civil
disobedience campaign on May 1. Moreover, the police
and army would be hard pressed to enforce the ban
in many scattered locations. ? The army commander has
in the past expressed concern over the ability of
the security forces to contain widespread antigov-
ernment outbursts.
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NOTES
USSR: The Soviets are increasing the capability
of their tactical air units to conduct nuclear war-
fare. seven
more storage sites for nuclear weapons have been com-
pleted or are under construction at tactical airfields
in the western USSR. In all, 21 storage sites have
now been identified at airfields in the USSR and in
Eastern Europe. Most of this construction has oc-
curred since 1970, and it has coincided with the wide-
spread introduction into Soviet tactical aviation of
aircraft that are assigned nuclear-strike missions.
Not all of the airfields that now have storage sites
are equipped with newer aircraft suitable for deliver-
ing nuclear weapons.
Iraq: The Kurds have announced the formation
of their own administration in northern Iraq, accord-
ing to a Beirut newspaper. The administration is
said to be led by an eight-man "executive council"
composed of Kurdish ministers who have resigned from
the Baghdad government and provincial governors who
abandoned their posts to join Kurdish separatist
leader Barzani. r-
the Kurds
well organized and apparently willing to continue
their fight. Kurdish forces are well-equipped with
modern small arms and antiaircraft weapons/
Their main vulnerabilities are poor radio communica-
tions between units and a lack of hospital facilities.
Niger: The new military government appears
basically moderate and likely to focus on the coun-
try's dofilestic problems while continuing ousted Pres-
ident Diori's pro-Western foreign policy. Paris has
reacted calmly to the coup and appears ready to ac-
cept at face value junta leader Kountche's statement
that he does not intend to change Niger's close re-
lations with France. Libyan Prime Minister Jallud
visited Niger on April 18-19, probably to discuss
the mutual defense pact Diori's government had signed
with Libya. Kountche has not clarified his attitude
toward the pact.
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Top Secret
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