THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 21 MARCH 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007703
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: March 21, 1974

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012000010037-3
The President's Daily Brief
March 21, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I),(2),(3)
declauified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
March 21, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Soviets are modernizing SS-11 Silos at two more
ICBM complexes in preparation for a new ICBM
'Page 1)
The USSR has supplied Somalia with the SA-2 surface-
to-air missile system and MIG-21 aircraft. (Page 2)
The Khmer Communists, despite their victory at
Oudong this week, are showing signs of losing some
of their military momentum. (Page 3)
Some 66,000 North Vietnamese troops have started
south since early September, the second lowest total
for comparable periods in the past six dry seasons.
(Page 4)
Foreign Minister Jobert, in recent talks with his
Italian counterpart, outlined a French plan for a
new European confederation. (Page 5)
The firepower of the South Sea Fleet, traditionally
the smallest of China's three fleets, has been sig-
nificantly increased. (Page 6)
Notes on USSR-China, Mozambique, and USSR-Bangladesh
appear on Page 7.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR
The Soviets are modernizing SS-11 silos at two
more ICBM complexes in preparation for a new ICBM.
work under
way at Perm in the western USSR and Gladkaya in the
central part of the country. The most likely mis-
sile to be installed in the modernized silos is the
SS-11 Mod 3, which carries three re-entry vehicles
that are not independently targetable.
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SOMALIA-USSR
The Soviets have supplied Somalia with the
SA-2 surface-to-air 'missile system and MIG-21 air-
craft.
SA-2
missile equipment at a SAM support facility north-
west of Mottadiscio.
An SA-2 launch site was
also observed in the early stages of construction
in the same area. Although Somali military person-
nel have had some training on the SA-2, they prob-
ably still cannot operate them without Soviet as-
sistance.
News of these arrivals is certain to increase
the nervousness of the Ethiopian Government, which
has long-standing territorial quarrels with Somalia.
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CAMBODIA
Despite their victory at Oudong this week, the
Khmer Communists are showing signs of losing some of
their military momentum. The insurgents entered the
present dry season with great expectations; they hoped
that by concentrating most of their forces in the
Phnom Penh area, they could score a quick "total vic-
tory" over the government. They have failed, and
losses have been high.
Intercepted messages indicate that the Communists'
morale and confidence have been eroded. The seizure
of Oudong will help raise their spirits, but that vic-
tory--which may be short-lived--is pretty much a con-
solation prize.
The CoMmunigts have paid other costs for their
military preoccupation with Phnom Penh. As insurgent
units from the countryside have moved into the capi-
tal region, the Communist forces left in some rural
areas have been hard put to oppose Cambodian Army ac-
tions.- Weakening of the Communists' local security
in turn has made it more difficult for Communist civil
administrators to maintain their hold over villagers
who are already resentful over oppressive population
control measures. Over 45,000 civilians have volun-
tarily left Communist zones in the past month to re-
settle around such provincial capitals as Kompong Thom
and Pursat.
The Communists are by no means assured of taking
either Kampot or Kompong Thom. The government is
alert to both threats and, particularly at Kampot,
is building up its own forces.
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NORTH VIETNAM
Some 66,000 North Vietnamese troops have started
south since early September--the second lowest total
for comparable periods in the past six dry seasons.
This is only slightly more than Hanoi sent south in
1969-70, and it is substantially lower than the total
observed before the 1972 spring offensive.
According to intercepts, 21 infiltration groups--
about 11,000 men--have started south so far in March.
If infiltration continues at this rate, March's total
will exceed 16,000 troops. Continuation of this rate
into May would bring the total for this dry season to
the relatively moderate. level--94,000--of last year's
dry season.
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FRANCE-EC
Foreign Minister Jobert outlined a French plan
for a new European confederation during talks with
his Italian counterpart on March 15-16. The plan,
which calls for an executive, apolitical secretar-
iat, and a bicameral parliament, will be offered at
the EC summit scheduled for late May, although the
scheme would function outside existing community in-
stitutions.
The executive could be rotated among member
states, while the parliament would be composed of
a senate representing confederal interests and a
chamber based on population. At least the chamber
would be elected directly.
Although some elements of this scheme seem to
be significant concessions to France's EC partners,
Jobert's proposal reflects France's long-standing
desire to circumvent formal EC institutions in de-
veloping European political unity.
The plan also is apparently part of a wider
initiative on European unity that includes France's
recent proposal for a European energy organization
and possibly an initiative to set up a new type of
joint float against the dollar.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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MONGOLIA
Peking*
orth
Sea
Fleet
PAKISTAN
Shanghai ?
SIKKIM
East
Sea
Fleet
BHUTAN
BURMA
Canton ?
Cha -chiang
(Port.)
V T
Golf of
Tonkin
HONG PON
(U.K.)
South
Sea ?
Fleet
?
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TAIWAN
THAILAND
PHILIPPINES
CAMBODIA,
555486 3-74 CIA.
NAUTICAL MILES
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CHINA
The firepower of the South Sea Fleet,
smallest of China's three fleets, has been
cantly increased.
three Riga-class guided-missile destroyer escorts,
eight Osa-class guided-missile boats, 22 Styx cruise
missile crates, and two R-class attack submarines at
naval facilities near Chan-chiang, where the South Sea
Fleet is based.
long the
Since driving the South Vietnamese out of the
Paracel Islands in January, the Chinese have been ex-
panding the areas covered by regular military opera-
tions in the Gulf of Tonkin and the South China Sea.
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NOTES
'USSR-China: Moscow is making a propaganda is-
sue Out of what appears to have been a minor incident
on the Sino-Soviet border west of Mongolia. Tass
charged yesterday that Peking has refused to return
a Soviet helicopter and its crew of three that made
an emergency landing just inside Chinese territory
on March 14. According to Tass, the helicopter lost
its waywhile on a mission of mercy. In publicizing
the. incident, the Soviets may hope to head off any
Chinese effort to exploit it as evidence of Soviet
espionage activity against China.
Mozambique: Anti-Portuguese rebels in Mozam-
bique may soon be using Soviet-supplied SA-7 mis-
siles.
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USSR-Bangladesh: The last two Soviet mine-
sweepers involved in harbor-clearing operations at
Chittagong are en route home. As many as 14 naval
auxiliaries have taken part in Soviet clearing and
salvage activities there since March 1972; only five
remain.- The entire operation is scheduled to con--
clude.by the end of June.
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Top Secret
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