THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 15 MARCH 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007698
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: March 15, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
March 15, 1974
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Exempt from general
declauification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
March 15, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Portuguese Government's dismissal yesterday of
two senior military officers is a victory for right-
wing forces who oppose greater autonomy for Portu-
gal's overseas territories. (Page 1)
Iran apparently plans to slow the rate of increase
In its petroleum production in order to stretch out
its oil reserves. (Page 2)
Peking appears to be scaling down the level of its
support to the Burmese Communist Party insurgency
in northeast Burma. (Page 3)
PLO leaders have postponed adopting a formal posi-
tion on their role in future negotiations until
they see whether progress is made toward disengage-
ment between Syria and Israel. (Page 4)
Greece
(Page 5)
Notes on USSR-France, Israel-Egypt
appear on Page 6.
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PORTUGAL
The Portuguese Government yesterday dismissed
armed forces Chief of Staff Costa Gomes and his
deputy, General Spinola. The action is a victory
for right-wing forces who oppose Spinola's advocacy
of greater autonomy for Portugal's overseas terri-
tories.
The dismissals are certain to send further shock
waves through the Portuguese hierarchy, which includes
many Spinola supporters. Doubtless in anticipation
of this, the government announced that it would re-
impose the state of alert that confined troops to
barracks for four days this week.
The discharges may also cause rumblings in the
overseas territories.
Most civilian and military leaders there will be
glad that Spinola's ideas about self-determination
have been rejected.
Costa Gomes may be replaced by General Joaquim
Luz Cunha, a rightist who has commanded Portuguese
forces in Angola since 1972.F
/ No replacement for Spinola has been
announced so far.
Over the last week the government quietly posted
Spinola sympathizers in the military as far away from
Lisbon as possible. The US Consulate in the Azores
yesterday reported a rumor that 48 more officers
would soon arrive in the islands. Some junior offi-
cers, who presumably supported a change in overseas
policy, were transferred to the Azores earlier in the
week.
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IRAN
Iran apparently plans to slow the rate of in-
crease in its petroleum production. The Iranians'
objective is to stretch out the country's reserves,
which otherwise will be depleted more rapidly than
Iranian oil officials had anticipated. Iran has
plans for several refineries and petrochemical plants,
and it presumably wants to be sure that sufficient
domestic oil will be available for the life of these
projects.
The new production plan will be prepared by the
consortium of Western oil companies at the direction
of the National Iranian Oil Company. The Iranians
have asked Western oil representatives to calculate
the new program conservatively, on the basis of known
reserves only, and to plan peak production at a level
that can be sustained for at least eight years.
Although the new program probably will not af-
fect production this year, an oil company official
expects that the new directive could lead to a new
consortium production goal as low as 6.5 million bar-
rels per day, some 14 percent below the earlier plan.
The Iranians are in a better position to do this be-
cause of the recent rapid price increases. The gov-
ernment will receive in the next three to five years
more revenue than the Iranian economy can absorb ef-
fectively.
The Saudis, however, are capable of increasing
production to offset the Iranian shortfall, if they
wish to do so.
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CHINA-BURMA
Peking appears to be scaling down the level of
its support to the Burmese Communist Party insurgency
in northeast Burma.
Although the extent of the troop reduction is
not clear, it is likely that certain Chinese person-
nel will remain in Burma. Individual PLA officers
and men have served with the insurgent forces, many
in command positions, since 1969. No regular PLA
units are known to have crossed the border, however.
Supplies shipped from China to the insurgents
are also affected.
The reduction of Peking's involvement in the
Burmese insurgency coincides with apparent attempts
to improve state-to-state relations between China
and Burma.
China probably will not altogether abandon the
insurgency in Burma. On the other hand, the reduc-
tion of its role now could assist Peking in its con-
tinuing efforts to improve official state relations
with Burma and other Southeast Asian countries, a
priority Chinese foreign policy objective.
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FEDAYEEN
Leaders of the Palestine Liberation Organiza-
tion have decided to postpone adopting a formal
position on their role in future negotiations.
They want to await progress toward military disen-
gagement between Syria and Israel. The decision
? is a victory for Syria's President Asad, who be-
lieves that uncertainty over the Palestinians' po-
sition and the appearance of Syrian ability to in-
fluence that position increase his leverage in ne-
gotiations with Tel Aviv.
PLO Chairman Arafat, on the other hand, must
be disappointed at the development. He has been
among those generally approving the creation, through
negotiation, of a truncated Palestinian state. Three
of the PLO's five fedayeen groups favor this strat-
egy, but Syrian objections to fedayeen acceptance
at this time left Arafat unable to force its adop-
tion.
Arafat remains determined to participate even-
tually in the negotiations at Geneva. The Syrians
maintain that once Damascus has decided to attend,
the Palestinians should participate.(
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GREECE
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ZOA I
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Mars 6 fails prior to landing
55438 3-74 CIA
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a tat
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NOTES
? USSR: Radio contact with the instrument cap-
sule released from Mars 6 broke off just before it
reached the planet's surface, according to a Tass
announcement. The capsule from the last of four
Soviet probes to reach Mars transmitted data during
its descent on March 17, however. A malfunction had
also prevented Mars 7, which passed by the planet
three days earlier, from successfully landing a cap-
sule. Tass, which rarely admitted past failures in
the Soviet space program, has been unusually frank
in discussing the problems encountered by the latest
series of Mars probes.
USSR-France: Brezhnev and Pompidou have both
praised the results of Pompidou's 24-hour visit to
the USSR, but the description of the talks as "frank"
and "realistic" suggests that significant differences
remain. The European security talks at Geneva fig-
ured prominently among the wide variety of interna-
tional and bilateral topics discussed. ? Pompidou sup-
ported Brezhnev's call for a rapid conclusion to the
security conference, but he refused to endorse a
summit-level meeting of the conference unless one
were justified by prior progress. This statement
must be a painful rebuff for Brezhnev, who has put
great personal store in the conference and its grand
finale.
Israel-Egut:
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Top Secret
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