THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 MARCH 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007689
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: March 4, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
March 4, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification uhedule of E.O. I 1652
exemption category 58( 1).0
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
March 4, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Prime Minister Meir has announced she is giving up
her efforts to form a new government. (Page 1)
In Italy, the collapse of Prime Minister Rumor's
four-party coalition opens a period of difficult
negotiation to form a new government. (Page 2)
A North Korean spokesman in New York has served no-
tice that his government reserves the right to take
up in the UN General Assembly the termination of
the UN Command and the withdrawal of US forces from
Korea. (Page 3)
The military situation in Cambodia is discussed on
Page 4.
The situation in northern Iraq is deteriorating with
the approach of the expiration of the truce between
the Kurds and the government. (Page 5)
In Indonesia, President Suharto's recent government
shake-up has neither appeased student critics of the
government nor stifled competition within the mili-
tary leadership. (Page 6)
Ethiopia remained quiet over the weekend as dissi-
dent troops began returning to their duty stations
and local governmental functions were restored to
civilian officials. (Page 7)
The situation remains confused in Cordoba Province
of Argentina in the wake of the ouster by police of
the left-wing Peronist government there last week.
(Page 8)
In Germany, the Social Democrats suffered heavy
losses in yesterday's election in Hamburg. (Page 9)
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ISRAEL
Israeli Prime Minister. Meir announced yesterday
that she has given up trying to form a new government.
She is to meet later this morning with President
Katzir; he can ask her to continue her efforts or he
can attempt to find another party leader to try to
form a cabinet.
Apparently upset over the wrangling within the
Alignment party concerning her proposed cabinet
choices, including that of Yitzak Rabin, former am-
bassador to the US, to replace Moshe Dayan as Defense
Minister, Mrs. Meir walked out of a party meeting
yesterday; she said she was encountering too much
factionalism and bitterness for her to proceed. The
caucus then voted unanimously to approve Meir's pro-
posed minority government. Later, a delegation rep-
resenting all Labor party factions visited Meir at
home, but found her still unyielding.
The Prime Minister's decision to give up may
have been a last-ditch attempt to force the party
to close ranks behind her and possibly yet to con-
vince Dayan to remain in the cabinet. The move may
also be meant to demonstrate her unwillingness to
head a government of national unity with the right-
wing Likud--an alternative suggested by Dayan and
the National Religious Party. Meir believes that
such a government would be paralyzed, incapable of
governing the country, much less reaching any kind
of consensus that would permit productive peace ne-
gotiations with the Arabs.
Some Israeli politicians conclude that either
a national unity government or new elections is
likely. If President Katzir cannot find a party
leader to form a cabinet, the Knesset will probably
have to dissolve and set a date for new elections,
perhaps within three months.
In the meantime, Meir would continue to head
the present caretaker government. In all probabil-
ity, it would continue to conduct the disengagement
negotiations with the Syrians, although it would
probably be unable to conclude any binding agree-
ments beyond the immediate disengagement issue.
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ITALY
The collapse of Prime Minister Rumor's four-
party center-left coalition opens a period of dif-
ficult negotiation to form a new government. Rumor
will stay on in a caretaker status during this
period. Interparty talks are likely to aim at set-
ting up another center-left grouping among the same
parties--Christian Democrats, Socialists, Social
Democrats, and Republicans.
In trying to reconstruct the coalition, how-
ever, politicians will face the task of reconciling
the opposing views of the Socialists and Republicans
on economic priorities. In a disagreement that has
immobilized successive governments, the Socialists
have demanded immediate action on costly economic
and social programs, while the Republicans have in-
sisted on budgetary austerity. If the parties can-
not iron out their differences, the Christian Demo-
crats may have to set up a temporary one-party
caretaker government.
The Communist Party preferred Rumor's coalition
to its predecessor--a centrist government headed by
a right-wing Christian Democrat--and was caught off
guard by his collapse. They had backed his efforts
to deal with economic problems, and used that in-
direct support of the ruling parties to accelerate
their campaign for an open role in the government.
Although Rumor's premature departure provides
an opportunity for the Communists to press for a
role in the government, it will be difficult for
them to do so effectively with the divorce referendum
pending. They are at odds with the dominant Chris-
tian Democrats on the divorce issue and would have
preferred to avoid a government crisis until at
least after the referendum.
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KOREA - UNITED NATIONS
A North Korean spokesman served notice in New
York last week that his government reserved the right
to take up in the UN General Assembly the termination
of the UN Command and withdrawal of US forces from
Korea. His action suggests that the North Korean
Government may well feel the time is ripe to press
this fall for an Assembly vote on these issues rather
than to settle, as it did last year, for a compromise
arranged through private negotiations.
North Korea's position at the UN has benefited
during the past year from a global trend toward ac-
ceptance of both regimes in divided states. The
North has recently received recognition from a number
of non-Communist governments.
The North Koreans are probably discussing their
approach to the General Assembly with Algerian Pres-
ident Boumediene, who arrived in Pyongyang last Sat-
urday. Algeria has been the most active proponent
of North Korean positions at the UN in recent years.
The South Korean Government is acutely aware of
the trend toward acceptance of the North's position
and is casting about for another compromise formula.
Seoul seems to be counting on Soviet and Chinese sup-
port against North Korea and Algeria.
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Communist Attacks
Kompong Cham
Kompong Spe
555352 3-74 CIA
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CAMBODIA
The military situation appears to be stabilizing
at the southwestern provincial capital of Kampot, which
came under heavy Khmer Communist pressure over the
weekend.
Insurgent attacks against the isolated coastal
city subsided yesterday following government air strikes
and naval gunfire. Reinforcements from Phnom Penh and
from the navy base at Ream are being airlifted to Kampot
to strengthen its defenses. Cambodian Army chief Fer-
nandez visited the city yesterday to assess the situa-
tion. He is likely to replace the local commander,
whose inept leadership was largely responsible for his
troops' initial poor showing against the Communists.
The attacks were the Communists' most serious
thrust to date against Kampot. The insurgents struck
government positions around Kampot's entire defensive
perimeter. On March 2, the Communists captured the
city's water plant, five miles northeast of Kampot,
which they apparently still hold. Before their advance
was halted, the Communists managed to push within two
miles of the city proper and its airport.
Military activity in the Phnom Penh region remains
relatively light. Government clearing operations
south of the city have made no significant progress in
the past few days. Other government sweep operations
northwest of the capital continue to encounter little
resistance.
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IRAQ
The situation in the Kurdish area of northern
Iraq is deteriorating as the government moves addi-
tional forces into strategic areas before the expira-
tion on March 11 of the truce that halted fighting
four years ago.
Skirmishes and forced evacuation of Kurds have
taken place, but, at last report, Barzani had ordered
his forces only to defend themselves and not to coun-
terattack.
Neither sAe appears to be planning to launch
an all-out attack
With time running out,
on the truce, the two sides might miscalculate or?
over-react, and heavy fighting could result.
An important part of the truce. arrangements in
1970 was a firm government promise to grant autonomy
to the Kurds. Four years later the two sides are
still far apart on even the basic provisions of a
mutually acceptable agreement on autonomy. The gov-
ernment offered a limited plan last December, but
the Kurdish leaders view it as merely a device to
keep ultimate authority in Baghdad.
there are rumors that both the government and
Barzani will soon unilaterally proclaim differing
versions of an autonomous government for northern
Iraq. Any such move would automatically put the
two sides on a collision course and would greatly
increase the probability of a major military con-
frontation.
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INDONESIA
President Suharto's recent government shake-up
has neither appeased student critics of his regime
nor stifled competition within the military's leader-
ship. An atmosphere of uncertainty and apprehension
remains.
Student leaders from universities on Java have
agreed to sustain their campaign against official
corruption, pervasive military influence in govern- -
ment, and the power of Suharto's palace clique. They
have also decided to try to form a united action
front of all student organizations.
Some student leaders believe that continuing.
competition within the military?will aid their cause.
President Suharto's security officials are also wor-
ried about this, particularly because the students
are increasingly attracted to General Sumitro, who
lost out in the recent government reshuffle.
A parallel development, of equal concern to se-
curity officials is the increasing rapport between
members of the West Java Army Division, which has
lost political influence under Suharto, and the East
Java Division, General Sumitro's old command. Mem?
bers of these two divisions believe that Suharto's
latest moves have further undercut their political
position in favor of his cronies from the Central
Java Division.
The dynamics of army politics in Indonesia have
traditionally stemmed from the rivalries and alli-
ances among the three Java divisions. Since assuming
power, President Suharto has tried to dissolve the
bonds of divisional loyalty through successive armed
forces reorganization and centralization measures,
but evidently he has had only limited success.
The armed forces troop commanders are scheduled
to gather in Jakarta early this month. Both Suharto
and the students will be watching closely to see
whether military factionalism breaks into the open
and, if so, whether it is serious enough to affect
the future of the government.
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ETHIOPIA
The cabinet appointments announced yesterday by
Prime Minister Endalkatchew seem likely to win the
support of dissident troops. Two of the younger and
more progressive members of the Ethiopian aristocracy,
whose appointments were demanded by the military, re-
ceived important posts. Mikael Imru, currently
serving as Ethiopia's representative to the UN Euro-
pean office, was named Minister of Commerce and In-
dustry and Zawde Gebre Selassie, who was serving as
UN ambassador, was appointed Interior Minister. The
other ministers are mostly new faces and are not
closely identified with the discredited former govern-
ment.
The appointment of the new ministers should help
speed the re-establishment of civilian authority.
Dissident troops had already begun returning to their
duty stations and most governmental functions were
restored to civilian officials over the weekend.
Students, teachers, and workers remain less in-
clined than the military to accept Endalkatchew.
Many of the demands of these groups, however, report-
edly were included in the list of reforms accepted
over the weekend by Haile Selassie. The new cabinet
is also expected to give its approval, and this should
help reduce the remaining opposition to Endalkatchew.
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ARGENTINA
The situation in Cordoba remains confused and
tense in the wake of the ouster by police of the left-
wing Peronist provincial government there last week.
Sporadic violence, including shootouts between leftist
extremists and police, has caused several deaths and
scores of injuries. Work stoppages have virtually
paralyzed the province and food supplies are becoming
scarce.
President Peron has asked for congressional ap-
proval to reorganize the provincial government, but
congress has lacked a quorum and thus far Peron has
refrained from intervening directly without legal
authorization. Although he has placed the military
on alert, he told army chiefs that only, police forces
are to be used in Cordoba province even if widespread
violence occurs. The army agrees with this strategy
and would prefer to remain on the sidelines, but
senior officers have criti-
cized Peron's handling of the "Cordoba debacle."
ShOuld the violence worsen, the army may feel compelled
to enter the dispute and has been formulating contin-
gency plans for this purpose. The US Embassy believes
that chances of greater violence are growing as the
situation continues to rock along without a definitive
solution.
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WEST GERMANY
Chancellor Willy. Brandt's Social Democratic Party
suffered heavy losses in yesterday's election in Ham-
burg, traditionally a stronghold of Social Democratic
support. The Social Democrats remained the largest
single party in the city, but with only 44.9 percent
of the vote. They lost 14 seats in the local parlia-
ment, as well as the absolute majority they had en-
joyed in Hamburg since 1957. The Christian Democrats
made their best showing ever, picking up 40.6 percent
of the vote and increasing their representation in par-
liament by ten seats.
The impact of these Social Democratic losses will
be felt in Bonn, where national party leaders have
been concerned for some time about the results of pub-
lic opinion polls that show the perty's popularity
dropping sharply throughout the country. The Hamburg
election was viewed by leaders of all parties as the
first major test of voter attitudes since the national
elections of November 1972.
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