THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 28 FEBRUARY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007686
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: February 28, 1974

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012000010021-0
The President's Daily Brief
February 28, 1974
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19: CIA-RDP79T00936A012000010021-0
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. I 1652
exemption category 51E41),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
February 28 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Emperor Haile Selassie will probably accept the
resignation of his cabinet, offered yesterday, and
so gain some time to deal with growing unrest.
(Page 1)
A rebellion by Argentine police and paramilitary forces
in the industrial city of Cordoba--a stronghold of left-
ist strength?may. give President Peron the excuse he
has been looking for to oust the provincial government.
Demonstrations also broke out in the western City of
Mendoza. .(Page 2)
The SOviets are converting two additional groups of
SS-11 silos at ICBM complexes in the western USSR.
(Page 3)
The changes in the French cabinet yesterday apparently
are intended to improve the government's handling of
the energy crisis and are unlikely to affect the strug-
gle over, the presidential succession. (Page 4)
Chinese
(Page 5)
Crescent groups in the Paracel
the Amphitrite and
Islands showed 23 and
35 Chinese ships respectively. (Page 6)
In Laos, the next move in the negotiations to form a
new coalition government apparently is up to the Com-
munists. (Page 7)
North Vietnam, concerned about feeding a fast-growing
population, will conduct its first national census
since 1960 in April. (Page 8)
Notes. on China-Laos and India appear on Page 9.
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ETHIOPIA
Emperor Haile Selassie will probably gain some
time to deal with growing unrest in Ethiopia by ac-
cepting the resignation of his cabinet, offered yes-
terday, but the new government will have to act
quickly to restore public confidence. Ethiopia's
strained financial resources will make it difficult,
however, for a new government to grant the conces-
sions that will be required to regain control of
the military and to ease discontent among other
segments of the populace.
The Emperor yesterday announced that he would
give priority concern to the army's living standard,
but warned that the government was unable to accede
to further financial demands.
Even as the Emperor spoke, the revolt in the
armed forces was worsening. Dissident troops in
Asmara have placed under house arrest most of the
senior officers--including the armed forces chief
of staff--who were sent to negotiate with them.
The troops sent the Emperor's aide-de-camp back to
the capital with a message reiterating their demands,
which still are focused mainly on economic issues.
The revolt has now spread beyond Eritrea. The
town of Debre Zeit, outside Ethiopia's main airbase
near Addis Ababa, has been seized by units of the
air force stationed at the base. Enlisted men and
noncommissioned officers have taken command of a
tank company farther south of the capital. Army en-
listed men and marines control naval facilities at
the ports of Massawa and Assab.
The developments of the past few weeks hold po-
litical implications that far exceed the immediate
economic issues. Many junior and middle-level of
are showing increased political awareness, and
there is growing evidence that they are in touch
with each other and with discontented civilians.
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ARGENTINA
A rebellion by police and paramilitary forces
broke, out last night in the industrial city of
Cordoba, and a demonstration?also involving police
and troops-took place in the western city of Mendola.
The situation in Cordoba may give President Peron
the excuse he has been seeking to oust the left-
leaning provincial government; some reports suggest
that Peron may be directly behind maneuvers to under-
mine leftist control of the province,
Most of Cordobat.s police have joined the insur-
rection to demand the removal of the governing
"Marxist clique.", According to press sources,.po-
lice have arrested the governor, his deputy, and
other ministers and officials,
In Mendoza, police and some noncommissioned of-
ficers and troops are demanding a pay raise from the
provincial government. The governor there has also
been under attack as a leftist by some Members of
the Peronist government. .
The Cordoba administration has been locked in
a bitter Struggle with conservative government and
labor. leaders in Buenos Aires Since Peron's call
for a purge of left-wingers last October. Peron
has described Cordoba as a focus of leftist infec-
tion and has made it clear that he would like to
rout Marxists and Trotskyites from key government
and labor posts there. The trade union movement in
Cordoba is especially dominated by radical leftists,
many of them well-armed and violently opposed to
the conservative Peronist labor bureaucracy.
Because Cordoba is a stronghold of leftist
strength, violence is likely if Peron should attempt
to make the ouster of provincial officials stick or
intervene to take over the province. Sniper gunfire
has already been reported in the city and left-wing
extremists can be expected to put up a determined
fight.
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USSR
The Soviets are converting two additional groups
of SS-11 silos at the Pervomaysk and Derazhnya ICBM?
complexes in the western USSR.
40 silos in all undergoing conversion at the
two complexes.
The silos probably are being prepared for the
installation of a new ICBM. Candidates include the
SS-X-17 and the SS-X-19, which have been tested with
MIRVs, and the SS-11 Mod 3, which carries multiple
re-entry vehicles that cannot be independently tar-
geted.
Based on progress to date, conversion of a silo
could probably be completed in 6 to 12 months, but
construction of launch-control silos for these groups
will require at least 18 months to complete. Conver-
sion of other SS-11 groups at PervoMaysk and Derazhnya
is expected to begin shortly.
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FRANCE
The changes in the French cabinet yesterday
apparently are intended to improve the government's
handling of the energy crisis. They are unlikely
to affect the struggle within the coalition over
the presidential succession.
The composition of the new cabinet will be an-
nounced on March 1. Jean Blancard, director of the
Energy Office, may be elevated to a cabinet-level
post. Although the minister of interior may be
dropped, initial reports suggest that other major
portfolios will be distributed much as they were
in the last Messmer government.
Messmer, despite Pompidou's strong support,
does n6t appear to be.a major figure in the evolv-
ing struggle for the presidency. For the time be-
ing, the chief competition continues.to be between
supporters of Jacques Chaban-Delmas,', a Gaullist, .
and Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the leader of the In-
dependent Republicans--the junior partner in the
coalition.
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CHINA
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China
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CHINA
Paracel Islands'
Amphitrite Group Chinese
ships in the area, including two.R-class attack sub-
marines. This is the farthest from the mainland
that any Chinese submarine has ever ventured. No
missile boats were observed in the Amphitrites, al-
though at least two participated in the January 19
naval engagement in the Crescent Group.
Both the Amphitrite and Crescent groups were
A total of
35 ships, including two destroyer escorts, were
there. Numerous tents were seen on Pattle Island
in the Crescents.
The Chinese are regularly maintaining naval
ships on station in the Paracels,
The substantial numbers ot combatants in the harbor
at Woody Island
strongly suggest that Woody Island is
functioning as .a forward operating base for the
South Sea Fleet.
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LAOS
The next moves in the negotiations to form a
new coalition government apparently are up to the
Lao Communists. Chief Pathet Lao negotiator Phoun
Sipraseuth is due to leave Vientiane soon to report
to the Communist leaders on his talks with Prime
Minister Souvanna. Phoun said that he would return
to Vientiane soon, but gave no definite date.
For his part, Souvanna is still hopeful that
the coalition will be formed in the near future. .
At a press conference last week Souvanna said he ex-
pects senior Pathet Lao official Phoumi Vongvichit
to return to Vientiane "very soon" with a definitive
list of Communist designees for the new cabinet and
its advisory council.
After that, Souvanna expects to meet Lao Commu-
nist leader Souphanouvong to review and approve all
the nominees for the new government. According to
Souvanna, he and Souphanouvong7-possibly accompanied
by the entire membership of the coalition--would
then be invested by the King.,
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NORTH VIETNAM
North Vietnam, worried about feeding a fast-
growing population, will conduct its first national
census since 1960 in April. The census will provide
a demographic framework for the 1976-1980 economic
development plan.
Communist Party chief Le Duan recently said that
since 1960 the population had grown by more than 10
million, which would mean a total of about 26 million.
This is a much higher figure than Western estimates,
which generally put North Vietnam's population at
about 20 million.
Hanoi's leading economist meanwhile has proposed
a new birth-control program, the first such call by
a national leader since the war intensified in 1965.
North Vietnam suffers from chronic food shortages and
is dependent on large imports of food from China and
the USSR. If Le Duan's population figures are cor-
rect, food may become more scarce as time goes on.
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NOTES
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India: India so far has contracted for only
600,000 tons of fertilizer for 1974 plantings, about
half the amount imported last year. If additional
contracts are not concluded soon, Indian buyers may
'find themselves shut Out of the tight fertilizer mar-
ket. Despite a near-record fall harvest, government
grain stocks remain low, and prices continue to rise.
A cut in fertilizer supplies would reduce agricul-
tural output and would compound New Delhi's political
and economic problems.
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Top Secret
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