THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 23 FEBRUARY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007682
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: February 23, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
February 23 1974
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declassification schedule of Ea 11652
exemption category 5B( I ),(2).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
February 23, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The US Interests Section in Damascus reports that
President Asad has obtained the approval of the Baath
Party leadership to seek a disengagement agreement
with Israel. (Page 1)
Pakistan's recognition of Bangladesh moves the two
countries closer to resolving problems left from the
1971 division of Pakistan. (Page 3)
The EC, badly shaken by the split between France and
its partners at the Washington Energy Conference last
week, appears determined to keep the rift from widen-
ing. (Page 4)
Disclosure by the National Coal Board that miners'
wages are actually below, not above, the national
average has caused trouble for Prime Minister Heath.
(Page 5)
Student activists are raising the political tempera-
ture in Bangkok again. (Page 6)
Notes on USSR-Libya, Australia - North Korea, Iraq-
USSR, and Ethiopia appear on Page 7.
Chinese and Soviet
in the Annex.
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SYRIA-ISRAEL
The US Interests Section in Damascus has heard
from a variety of sources that President Asad has
finally gained the approval of the leadership of the
Baath Party to seek a disengagement accord with Is-
rael and--if those efforts are successful --to attend
the Geneva peace talks. On February 15, Syria
told Fatah leaders that
disengagement with Israel was imminent and that Fatah
should begin to withdraw its units from the Golan
Heights. Asad reportedly has also won the acquiescence
of party leaders to support the lifting of the oil
boycott against the US, once disengagement has been
achieved.
Asad is not in a position to accept disengage-
ment at any price. He will try to obtain the with-
drawal of Israeli forces from Al-Qunaytirah during
an early stage of disengagement. Many Syrians at-
tach considerable symbolic importance to regaining
this town, which was lost to the Israelis in 1967,
then briefly regained and lost again during the Oc-
tober war. Asad is also likely to press the Israelis
to allow Syrian refugees to return to villages on
the Golan Heights that were occupied during the Oc-
tober fighting and perhaps those occupied during the
1967 war.
Baath Party leaders reportedly are pressing
Asad to continue the fight for the "rights of the
Palestinians." Asad is said to be willing to defer
discussion of this problem to the Geneva peace talks.
For tactical reasons he reportedly has recently
swung his support to the "moderates" within the Pal-
estine Liberation Organization, led by Fatah chief
Yasir Arafat. The "moderates" are trying to obtain
fedayeen approval to set up a Palestinian government
in exile that could negotiate at Geneva on behalf of
all Palestinians for the establishment of an inde-
pendent state composed of the Israeli-occupied West
Bank and the Gaza strip.
Tel Aviv is prepared--once it receives a list
of Israeli POWs in Syria and assurances that Red
Cross officials will be allowed to visit them--to
negotiate a disengagement of forces from Syrian ter-
ritory occupied in the October war but--so far--not
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from the area captured in the 1967 war. Prime Min-
ister Meir told a group of Israeli settlers from
the Golan Heights on February 8 that she could not
envision an Israeli withdrawal from the Heights that
would include Al-Qunaytirah. She reiterated this
stand only this week.
Mrs. Meir's decision to form a minority govern-
ment probably makes her even less inclined, at least
for the time being, to adopt a more flexible approach.
The stability of her government depends on her con-
servative supporters, who are opposed to any Israeli
withdrawal from the Golan Heights. Although eventu-
ally Tel Aviv might be more flexible on this issue,
the Israelis most likely would still insist on re-
taining control of Israeli settlements on the Golan
Heights and the area immediately behind them.
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SOUTH ASIA
Pakistan's recognition of Bangladesh yesterday
moves the two countries a long step closer to resolv-
ing problems left over from the division of Pakistan
in 1971.
It is not yet clear whether Dacca has agreed to
the immediate release of 195 Pakistani prisoners of
war accused of war crimes, the quid pro quo for recog-
nition that Prime Minister Bhutto had been demanding.
In any event, Bhutto's decision probably was made
easier by Peking's categorical assurance on February,
19 that even if Pakistan recognized Bangladesh, China
would not do so until the prisoners are repatriated.
Prime Minister Mujibur Rahman will head a Bangla-
desh delegation to the Islamic summit meetings that
began in Lahore yesterday. Various Muslim leaders
had made a major diplomatic effort to get Islamabad
and Dacca to agree to some formula under which Bangla-
desh--the second most populous Muslim nation--could
participate. The government in Dacca, however, had
refused to send a delegation to the conference prior
to formal recognition by the Pakistanis.
The major remaining issue between Dacca and
Islamabad is the division of Pakistan's foreign debt.
Negotiations with the consortium of Western aid donors
on rescheduling the debt and on new aid to the two
nations have been hindered by the refusal of Bangla-
desh to sit down at the same table with Pakistan.
Recognition may marginally improve Pakistan's
relations with India, since it could be seen in New
Delhi as an indication of Pakistani reasonableness.
More likely, however, the Indians will be concerned
at the effect of recognition on growing anti-Indian
sentiment in Bangladesh, which Pakistan has already
been attempting to exploit by playing on traditional
Muslim fear of Hindu domination.
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EC
The EC, badly shaken by the split between France
and its partners at the Washington Energy Conference
last week, appears determined to keep the rift from
widening. Most other EC members, hoping to bring
the French back into the fold on energy matters, are
stressing the preliminary nature of the initial fol-
low-up meeting in Washington next Monday.
France's partners may hope to take advantage of
signs of flexibility in Paris' attitude toward par-
ticipating in follow-up work. The French say they
would join deliberations in the OECD, for example,
provided that countries other than the 12 members
of the coordinating group authorized by the Washing-
ton conference attend and provided that the community
members speak "with a single voice." France's part-
ners are willing to bend over backward in relations
with Paris because they would like to let the French
isolate themselves without outside provocation.
The desire not to exacerbate relations with
France is accompanied by satisfaction that the Wash-
ington conference showed there are limits beyond
which French obstructionism will not be tolerated.
At the same time, there is concern that the issue
of "choosing" between Europe and the US--always in
the background of EC deliberations--may come to dom-
inate community proceedings. The broader questions
of the US-European relationship have, of course, not
been resolved. France's partners clearly hope that
implementation of the energy program will demonstrate
the possibility of fruitful trans-Atlantic coopera-
tion. Nevertheless, a need to maintain an appearance
of community solidarity may make the EC as a whole
more difficult to deal with on such matters as the
trade negotiations and the US-EC declaration.
The meetings of EC agricultural and finance
ministers this week were the first testing of the
waters since the Washington meeting. The agricul-
tural council failed to agree on 1974-75 support
prices, partly because of the impending British and
Belgian elections. The finance ministers authorized
studies on possible EC-wide borrowing to finance the
huge payments deficits expected this year. This
kind of limited progress is about par for the EC.
More serious tests of the EC's ability to pull it-
self together will come when the members take up pos-
sible EC-Arab cooperation and the controversial re-
gional development fund.
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UK
At the Pay Board hearings this week on the
miners' demands for wage increases beyond government
guidelines, the National Coal Board disclosed that
basic wage data comparing the miners with other oc-
cupations were not correct. Instead of being above
the national average, miners' wages are actually
8 percent below. This disclosure follows an earlier
statement by the Coal Board head that he agreed with
the miners' demands but the government had tied his
hands during the three months of negotiations.
British voters will now question whether the
confrontation between government and labor, the
strike, the three-day work week, and even the elec-
tion itself might have been avoided. As expected,
both Labor and the Liberals are promptly attacking
Prime Minister Heath on this issue.
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THAILAND
Student activists are raising the political
temperature in Bangkok again. They charge that gov-
ernment security elements recently leveled a village
in northeast Thailand suspected of aiding Communist
insurgents.
Three major student organizations staged a
rally on Wednesday to demand that the government com-
pensate the villagers and punish those involved. The
government has not so far responded to this attack,
which directly affects the military's interests.
The students may not be able to enlist broad
support on this issue. Recent articles in the Bang,-
kok press have suggested that the student movement
is beginning to lose its influence with the public,
which has grown weary of unruly students. Several
recent articles have portrayed a prominent student
leader as a Communist sympathizer. Such allegations
could give army leaders, who are worried about stu-
dent disorder, a pretext to clamp down on leading
activists.
An intensification of student unrest would
strengthen army chief Krit Siwara's conviction that
the caretaker government of Prime Minister Sanya
should stay on after the national elections, now
due to be held this summer. Krit--and probably the
King--apparently believes that Sanya represents the
best compromise between military rule and a left-
wing regime.
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NOTES
USSR-Libya: The captain and crew of the Soviet
freighter Nezhin, arrested by the Libyans on February
12, have been released, and the Soviet Embassy in
Tripoli considers the incident closed. Two of the
three Soviet warships that took up patrol positions
near Libya on February 15 have moved away from the
area. The other destroyer is still off Tripoli wait-
ing to rendezvous with an auxiliary ship. The Nezhin
affair has not disrupted subsequent Soviet merchant
shipping to Libya. Since the incident, a Soviet
freighter has arrived in Tripoli and another has de-
parted Benghazi.
Australia - North Korea: Australia has decided
to go ahead next week on recognition talks with North
Korea. Agreement will probably be reached quickly,
as Pyongyang is anxious to secure its first recogni-
tion from an important non-Communist nation. Canberra
had previously postponed the step several times be-
cause of South Korean objections. Australian attempts
to placate Seoul by suggesting that East European
countries recognize South Korea have not borne fruit.
Seoul has intimated that it will break relations if
Australia recognizes North Korea, but will probably
decide to live with the situation.
Iraq-USSR:
Ethiopia: Addis Ababa was quiet yesterday fol-
lowing three days of demonstrations by students and
others protesting the government's educational and
economic policies. Teachers and bus and taxi drivers
are continuing their strike, however, and schools
remain closed. The government made one concession
by postponing the start of a new education program
opposed by the teachers. Further incidents are
likely unless the government takes action to allay
widespread anxiety over increased living costs.
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SINO-SOVIET
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Top Secret
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