THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 13 DECEMBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007621
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 13, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
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13 December 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(1),(3),(3)
declauified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
13 December 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Egyptian Army high command has been shaken up,
apparently for failures in the recent war.
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Meanwhile, Lebanon has reduced tensions 25X1
with Israel. (Page 1)
Britain is threatened with an economic crisis. (Page 3)
The Chinese appear to be phasing out production of
their only strategic jet bomber. (Page 4)
The USSR is providing Afghanistan with new military
equipment; this will upset the Iranians and Pakistanis.25xl
(Page 5)
Greek
Soviets
(Page 6)
(?age u)
Venezuela's president-elect promises to maintain a
nationalistic stand on economic matters, particularly
oil. (Page 6)
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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
The Egyptian Army has undergone a shakeup that
includes the removal of General Shazli, the apparent
mastermind behind plans for the attack on October 6,
from his post as chief of staff. The new chief of
staff is General Gamasy, Egypt's chief negotiator
at Kilometer 101.
Shazli appears to have been at odds with Egypt's
political leaders and with War Minister Ismail over
his failure to retain the military initiative after
successfully crossing the Suez Canal. He apparently
was given a dressing down by President Sadat last
week. Gamasy, on the other hand, has won high marks
for his performance at the disengagement talks.
Among other new appointees are 'a new chief of
operations and new commanders for the Second and
Third Armies. These changes appear to be an effort
to remove those primarily responsible for the fail-
ure of Egyptian forces to halt the Israeli penetra-
tion of the west bank of the canal. Both of the
new army heads were regimental commanders who led
successful Egyptian crossings of the Suez on October
6.
The Middle East News Agency notes that the
changes are designed to reinforce the army command
and "to prepare for the coming stage with commands
which are scientifically and practically qualified
for the kind of war which these commands have wit-
nessed recently and which the Egyptian armed forces
might witness at any time."
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Numerous cease-fire violations were reported
? on both the Syrian and the Egyptian fronts yesterday.
Radio Damascus claimed that at least 20 Israelis
were hit in "fierce fighting." Tel Aviv has denied
that it suffered any casualties.
(continued)
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Lebanon today will release two Israeli ?ilots
captured during the October war. Beirut
assured by Tel Aviv that the re ease
be given no publicity from the Israeli side; this
should minimize any criticism of the Lebanese action
by radical Arab states or the fedayeen. The release
will lessen the considerable pressure the Israelis
have been putting on Lebanon, and is likely to reduce
the intensity of Israel's reactions to fedayeen
cross-border shelling.
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UK
Prime Minister Heath has received an extension
of the month-old state of emergency in order to deal
with the worsening energy situation and the spread-
ing labor strife that are threatening Britain with
an economic crisis.
The executive committee of the coal miners'
union will meet today to decide whether it will sub-
mit its dispute with the government over wage in-
creases to a vote among union members. If the miner
leaders decide against a ballot, the union's ban on
overtime, which has cut coal production by 30-40
percent, will continue. If the issue is put to a
vote, the miners will decide whether to accept the
government's offer or call for a strike.
A decision yesterday by locomotive engineers
to ban overtime and Sunday work until they receive
a better wage offer further weakens Britain's energy
situation. The limited amounts of coal that are be-
ing produced will be more difficult to transport be-
cause of the railroad slowdown.
Industry's energy reserves, already reduced by
an oil shortage, have been further depleted by the
government's orders to divert oil to power stations,
where electrical engineers are also engaged in a
work slowdown. The government has exhausted the
simple steps it can take to conserve energy, and
tougher measures will be needed if labor slowdowns
continue.
General economic forecasts for Britain are
gloomy. One leading industrialist believes that un-
employment could be tripled in the next two months.
Inflationary pressures next year are expected to be
the most severe since 1945. The government will re-
lease November trade figures today; it is antici-
pated that they will continue to reflect the record
deficit set last quarter.
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CHINA
The Chinese apparently see no requirement at
present to add many move iet bombers to their cur-
rent inventory
The TU-16 is Peking's only strategic jet bomber;
there is no sign of a follow-on program. The fall in
production strengthens that China has
made a basic decision to rely primarily on its mis-
siles to improve its strategic posture.
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U.S.S.R.
Afghanistan
China
Afghanistan Receiving Military Equipment
from USSR
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AFGHANISTAN USSR
The Soviet Union is providing Afghanistan with
new military equipment, including tanks.
that substantial numbers of Soviet armored vehicles
have already been delivered or are en route.
At present, the Afghan tank inventory is just
over 400; half of these are obsolete T-34 medium
tanks. Kabul probably plans to replace the T-34s,
and may be planning to enlarge its three armored and
ten infantry divisions.
The deliveries indicate that the Soviets intend
to ingratiate themselves with the military backers
of the new Afghan Government. At the same time, the
Soviets probably calculate they can minimize any
problems in relations with Pakistan and Iran because
the items provided do not appreciably enhance Afghan-
istan's capability to intervene in Pakistan. ?The
Soviets have not supported Afghanistan on the issue
of Pushtunistan and do not appear interested in the
further fragmentation of Pakistan.
The Shah of Iran knows of the Soviet deliveries,
and the Pakistanis are almost certain to find out,
if they are not already aware of them. Afghanistan's
relations with its neighbors may therefore suffer,
and Pakistan may look abroad for additional arms.
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NOTES
Greece:
USSR:
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Venezuela: Carlos Andres Perez, winner by a
surprisingly wide margin in the presidential elec-
tion, is expected to maintain his predecessor's
firmly nationalistic stand on economic matters, par-
ticularly petroleum. He will press for an earlier
takeover of US and other foreign oil concessions--
it is now scheduled to begin in 1983--but will try
to attract new private investment to join state
enterprises in developing the country's vast unex-
ploited energy resources. He will be a hard bar-
gainer as he seeks to use petroleum as a lever to
get better treatment for his country. Perez has
not called for a cutback in production from fields
being exploited currently, but he is believed to
favor such conservation measures.
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Top Secret
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