THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 8-11 FEBRUARY 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005996829
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: February 11, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
8 - 11 FEBRUARY 1964
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1. Guantanamo:
11 February 1964
the possibility of military prepared-
ness measures in Oriente Province.
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2. Cuba-USSR: Soviet ship to bring 50X1
arms to Cuba this year. . It is 50X1K1
carrying some MIG-15s and a couple of MIG-21s in
crates on deck, 50X1
3. South Vietnam: Khanh's new government has inher-
ited a bad situation. Viet Cong activity continues
to grow.
Throughout the entire country, they are mount-
ing small-scale attacks and acts of sabotage.
Strategic hamlets are still falling to them with
little or no resistance.
(Cont'd)
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There has also been a marked step-up in terror-
ist bombing, much of it aimed specifically against
US personnel.
The Communist drive, coupled with uncertainty
generated by the latest changeover in Saigon, is
undoubtedly affecting the morale of the people, the
paramilitary forces, and possibly regular troops
as well.
Reports from several critical provinces near
Saigon indicate little real government progress
and some further deterioration since the last Viet
Cong offensive in late 1963.
military officials in these
provinces regard the coup as
merely a continuing power struggle in Saigon,
Thus, Khanh has his hands full. A spark plug
himself, he has also put together amore broadly
based government, but is still far
from clear that he will be able to rally the populace
and halt the Viet Cong momentum.
4. Laos: Communist forces are taking a more
threatening stance. In skirmishes around Xieng
Khouang town in the Plaine des Jarres, Pathet Lao
garrison troops have moved against Lao Army and
neutralist forces occupying nearby ridge positions.
They have also shelled Kong Le's headquarters at
Muong Phanh.
(Cont 'd)
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In central Laos, the Communist advance toward
Route 13 has halted in the last week, but the enemy
forces, which we think include at least three North
Vietnamese battalions, can seize Thakhek any time
they want to.
The use of North Vietnamese on this scale
suggests the weight Hanoi is currently putting on
keeping the supply routes to South Vietnam open.
The Pathet Lao, asmight be expected, continue
to oppose International Control Commission investi-
gation of the recent fighting east of Thakhek.
5, Cyprus: There has been no improvement in the
situation onthe island itself; if anything it is
getting worse. The clashes which took place yes-
terday were as bad as any since the cease-fire came
into effect in December.
Much of the trouble is in the outlying areas
where Turkish Cypriots, fearful of the Greek
Cypriots surrounding them, continue to group to-
gether in more preponderantly Turkish sectors.
The Greek Cypriots see this movement as an
effort to achieve de facto partition, andsome of
their attacks are designed to stop this trend. The
situation is made worse by the fact that the police
and paramilitary groups are coming under the control
of radical elements who spare no effort to get at
the Turks. Their activity is quickly and luridly
reported in the Turkish press, further arousing
passions there.
(Cont '.d)
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At the same time our embassy in Athens reports
the emotional fervor also growing in Greece and
affecting people in all walks of life.
The Greek Cypriots seem bent on taking their
case to the Security Council where the Soviets
can play the situation to their best possible
advantage. The Greek Government agrees that it
would be a bad idea for Makarios to do this before
the composition of a peacekeeping force is decided.
Athens claims to have Makarios' agreement not to
make his move until after Sunday's election in Greece.
The Turks are against putting the dispute to
the Security Council. They see this action as a
Makarios ploy to predjudice Turkish treaty rights
to intervene on Cyprus.
We have, in the meantime, seen no change in
the alert status or the deployment of either Greek
of Turkish forces.
6. Israel - Arab States: The Israelis are reported
ready to begin testing at least one of three pumps
they will use to divert Jordan River water from
Lake Tiberias.
When they do, the Arabs will be faced for the
first time with actual diversion of water rather
than with the preliminary construction that has
gone on so far.
We have had no indication of extraordinary
? activity on the Syrian side to date, although the
Israelis say Syria attempted to shoot down one of
their aircraft over Israeli territory Monday.
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7. India: The Communists' chances of returning to
powerri-The South Indian State of Kerala have im-
proved lately as a result of growing factionalism
in the anti-Communist forces and scandal in the
ruling Congress Party.
The Communists ran Kerala from 1957 to 1959,
their first and as yet only taste of power in India.
Nehru maneuvered them out when they tried to
force through a Communist-style education system.
8. Maphilindo Talks: The three-way ministerial
talks in Bangkok adjourned yesterday having made no
discernible progress.
The ministers did agree to continue the cease-
fire and to meet again, probably later this month.
But Indonesia has refused to pull its guerrillas out
of Malaysian territory.
? Meanwhile, Malaysia's Tunku Rahman is in Phnom
Penh for talks with Macapagal, who afterward will
go to Djakarta for talks with Sukarno.
The Malaysian-Indonesian border area and
Malaysian Borneo have been relatively quiet during
the past week. Neither side has reported any serious
clashes or cease-fire violations.
France-China: The French, as they said ?they
would, have provoked a break in relations with Taipei.
(Cont'd)
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ETHIOPIA
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They chose to deliver the news orally rather
than in writing, but in so doing betrayed their
embarrassment at having been forced to submit to
Peiping's will.
Taipei's response took the form of a formal
note making it clear that in Taipei's view France
had taken the initiative. The Nationalist's public
statement failed to get this message across clearly.
10. Somalia-Ethiopia: There has been another flare-
up between Somali and Ethiopian troops in the troubled
Ogaden region.
it looks like local Ethiopian forces, which have
felt frustrated by their inability to deal with
Somali guerrillas, struck sharply at a Somali police
post and let the Somalis see an Ethiopian jet or two.
The fighting has died down, but armed forces
are still face to face and the situation could get
out of hand.
Both Mogadiscio and Addis Ababa would like to
hold the temperature down. The problem is on the
agenda of the Organization for African Unity meet-
ingtwhich is opening in Dar-es-Salaam on Wednesday.
The Somalis had been talking about appealing to
the UN, but will be under pressure from other Africans
at Dar-es-Salaam to keep the matter in African hands.
Khrushchev has issued a moderate appeal to both
sides to settle the dispute peacefully.
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11.
Congo (Brazzaville): The rioting in Brazzaville
last Friday by tribal supporters of former President
Youlou was suppressed fairly quickly by the armed
forces.
President Massamba-Debat charged immediately
afterward that "certain embassies" were supporting
"counterrevolutionary" activities. Several inci-
dents since then suggest that US representatives
have been marked as a particular target of hostility.
The whole affair has probably improved the
power position of army commander Mountsaka. It
is also likely to strengthen the regime's leftist
labor and youth leaders.
12. Panama: Carnival weekend passed without
serious anti-American incident. The Panamanian
guard easily deflected the small student march
into the Zone.
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Capital is still leaving the country(
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