THE PRESIDENT'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW 4-7 FEBRUARY 1964

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1961-1969
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005996822
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: September 16, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2015
• Publication Date: February 7, 1964

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THE PRESIDENT'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
4 - 7 FEBRUARY 1964
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7 February 1964
1, Cuba-US: There is little doubt in our minds
that Castro deliberately sent his fishing boats into
our territorial waters.
Although it is by no means certain that the
provocation was designed to provide a pretext for
shutting off the water supply to Guantanamo, circum-
stances suggest this may have been Castro's inten-
tion.
In addition to testimony of the two defected
fishermen who said they were being sent on "a his-
toric mission," Havana radio on Sunday, before the
boats were taken to Key West, launched a new program
series called "Cuba and the Guantanamo Base."
The first broadcast declared developments in
Panama had raised again the question of US rights
to the base.
The alacrity with which Moscow has picked up
the issue suggests to us the possibility of Soviet
foreknowledge.
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I:1 Principal British sovereign base areas
- Principal roads
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? Cyprus: The Greek and Turkish Cypriots are
at each other's throat again.
Instances of violence are growing in number
and severity.
Armed irregulars have begun appearing on the
streets in Nicosia, and Americans are advised to
stay indoors.
Meantime, the search for a mutually acceptable
formula on a force goes on. It is difficult to find
common ground between Makarios' .demands and the mini-
mum Turkish position.
Makarios, with some support from the Greeks,
is sticking to his demand for Security Council ap-
proval.
Press reports have it that he will come to New
York next week if negotiations in London do not get
anywhere by then.
The Turks are telling us in so many words that
they will make no further concessions.
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Inonu, however, is said to believe that the
time for Turkish military intervention is past and
he is determined to stick to the negotiations route
as long as possible. We are convinced that this
view is not accepted throughout the Turkish armed
forces, nor could it be sustained by the government
if the Turkish Cypriots begin to get the worst of it.
Ambassador Wilkins has expressed his concern
over the charged, anti-American atmosphere among
the Greek Cypriots and has again recommended against
including US troops in a peacekeeping force.
3. South Vietnam: By the strength and boldness of
their recent attacks, the Viet Cong appear to be mak-
ing a major effort to discredit the new regime in
Saigon.
The tempo of Viet Cong activity had been rising
gradually during the three weeks prior to the coup,
but it has accelerated notably since 30 January in
nearly all regions of the country.
The delta provinces south of Saigon are so far
bearing the brunt of this.
Major General Khanh, meanwhile, has been mov-
ing rapidly to consolidate his control.
(Cox:it'd)
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He intends momentarily to announce a "government
of national union" to succeed the civilian cabinet
of Prime Minister Tho which has continued in a care-
taker status.
According to Ambassador Lodge, General "Big"
Minh will become titular Chief of State. Khanh will
be Prime Minister and Chairman of the Revolutionary
Military Council.
There will be three deputy prime ministers in
charge of all of the working ministries.
Khanh is fully confident of broad military sup-
port, but there is still some talk of a countercoup
and there remains some disquiet among Buddhists and
students.
The appointment of "Big" Minh as Chief of State
may ease this situation somewhat.
4. Greece: With the national elections coming up 50X1
a week from Sunday, coup talk is again being heard
,in Greek military circles.
This sort of thing accompanies nearly every
election campaign, but is more urgent just now since
this is the first election in more than a decade
which the military's long-standing political partner,
the right-of-center National Radical Union, is not
expected to win.
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5. Panama: The upcoming carnival weekend could
bring a renewal of anti-American violence.
The main student leaders have scheduled a mass
meeting Sunday in Panama City to pay tribute to last
month's "martyrs" and "defeat the Yankees." Many
radio stations and newspapers are pumping out in-
flammatory material.
Agitators should find rich pickings amongst
the crowds of idlers which will be larger than usual
since the government banned a number of traditional
carnival events.
Chiari is getting worried about the political
repercussions of a deteriorating economy./
After voting itself into an organ of consulta-
tion on Tuesday, the OAS turned to trying to set up
an investigative peace commission. As nobody wanted
to serve on it, it was finally decided on Thrusday
that everybody would.
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6. OAS-Cuba: The prospect of strong OAS action
against Cuba over the Venezuelan arms cache issue
is waning.
A Venezuelan briefing team has been making the
rounds in hopes of drumming up support by laying out
the facts. They did manage to impress Chile; even
so, the Chileans will probably not vote for strong
action.
The team did not seem to get very far with the
Argentines, and will not even try Mexico which Caracas
feels is a lost cause.
Brazil has been working hard to counter Betan-
court's effort.
7. Ghana: Anti-American propaganda has been in-
tensified as Nkrumah, seeing enemies behind every
bush, lashes out against us in the hope of divert-
ing the populace from the inadequacies of his own
regime.
Events are moving very fast, Ambassador Mahoney
reports, and more demonstrations are in prospect.
He says the population at large seems generally un-
impressed and aware it is all being stage-managed by
Nkrumah's party agitators.
the
Premier
at the heavily guarded castle where he has holed up
since the assassination attempt last month.
(Cont'd)
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The officer corps is more disturbed than ever
over Nkrumah's recent behavior.
Mahoney, who returned here yesterday for con-
sultation after Nkrumah refused to see him, feels
the possibility of an early coup attempt by the army
has increased.r
8. Congo: The Congo seems destined for another
extended crisis.
Expanding terrorist excesses in Kwilu are
bringing the unstable country close to anarchy.
The Congolese Army is undipiplined, its loyal-
ties transitory, and the authority of the Leopold-
ville government still extends little beyond the
city's limits.
Despite this, U Thant remains determined to
close out the UN's costly military operations by
1 July.
Meanwhile, efforts to form a government party
and devise an acceptable constitution are faltering.
Elections set for mid-year will probably have to be
delayed.
Time is running out on the drifting Adoula re-
gime. It commands scant backing
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China Recognition/
Paris is now telling the world that if the
Nationalists do not get the hint soon and pull out,
France will go ahead and break relations.
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12. Sino-Soviet Relations: Peiping and Moscow in
the last week were back to exchanging unpleasantries.
This time most of the thunder came from the Chinese
side.
They charged that Khrushchev has all but joined
with the imperialist leaders and was no fit man to
lead the Communist revolution.
The intemperance of their language suggests to
us that they are not only willing to see the world
Communist movement split wide-open, but they may be
trying to provoke the Soviets into doing just that.
13. USSR-India: Moscow has told the Indians it is
willing to sell them the equipment for 14 additional
SAM sites.
This will boost Indian SAM purchases to 22 sites.
Some equipment has arrived, and the first train-
ing site will be set up within three months; the
first operational site has been delayed until late
in the year.
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14. Syria: Factionalism within the Syrian Baath
Party?ig?adangering Baath control of the government.
Former Premier Bitar, a long-time party leader, has
been ousted from the party for indiscipline and a
move appears to be under way to remove party founder
Aflaq.
A similar situation prevailed in Iraq last
November when the Baath split into warring factions
and the army took over.
15. UAR - Yemen - Saudi Arabia: Nasir continues
to send troops to Yemen.
16. Spain-USSR:
Spain and the USSR
will resume diplomatic relations by 1 April.
17. Cuba-USSR: Cuban trainees now active at all
SAM sites on the island
These are further indications of a Soviet in-
tent to transfer the system to Cuban control, pos-
sibly as early as April.
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19. British Guiana: The week-long trek through
the Guiana hinterland by a tiny band of youthful
supporters failed to drum up much enthusiasm for
Jagan's cause.
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