THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 28 NOVEMBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993997
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 28, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
28 November 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification uhedule of E.O. I 1652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDEAT'S DAILY BRIEF
28 November 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Egypt is growing increasingly impatient with what
it considers Israeli stalling in the talks at Kil-
ometer 101. An Egyptian spokesman charged yester-
day that Israeli obstinacy throws doubt on its at-
titude toward the peace conference next month. The
next session at Kilometer 101 had been scheduled
for today, but early this morning it was abruptly
postponed until Thursday at Israel's request. Mil-
itary activity yesterday was at a very low level.
(Page 1)
Prime Minister Golda Meir will probably overcome
criticism and win a vote of confidence at a meeting
of the Israeli Labor Party's central committee to-
day. Those working to soften the party's stand on
keeping the occupied territories may make some head-
way. (Page 3)
Although the USSR does not face an oil shortage as
serious as that confronting the West, the Soviets
are finding it increasingly difficult to satisfy
domestic needs and meet export commitments. Moscow
has little if any uncommitted oil, and there are al-
ready signs that it is straining to honor its obli-
gations. (Page 4)
The cabinet shuffle in Tokyo, particularly the ap-
pointment of Takeo Fukuda as Finance Minister, prob-
ably will help the Tanaka government deal more ef-
fectively with Japan's pressing economic problems.
(Page 5)
Notes on a new Chinese plant for producing solid-
propellant strategic missiles,
rage p.
appear on
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MIDDLE EAST
No significant cease-fire violations were re-
ported yesterday. According to the Israeli press,
however, there was an exchange of small arms fire
south of Little Bitter Lake, and Syrian units fired
mortars at Israeli positions.
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Ambassador Eilts has reported that Egyptian
officials seem interested in convening a peace con-
ference as soon as possible, but that they regard
the discussions at Kilometer 101 as the most impor-
tant indicator of the Israelis' intentions and of
Cairo's ability to negotiate with them. Israel's
recent behavior has apparently led some Egyptian
officials to conclude that Tel Aviv's approach to
negotiations is little more than a tactical maneu-
ver aimed at making it difficult for Cairo to at-
tend a peace conference, or possibly even at pro-
voking a new round of fighting.
Egypt is showing particular sensitivity and
impatience over what it considers Israeli stalling
at Kilometer 101. An Egyptian Foreign Ministry
spokesman charged yesterday that Israel is "playing
for time" which, he added, casts doubt on its atti-
tude toward the peace conference next month. The
next session at Kilometer 101 had been scheduled
for today, but early this morning it was abruptly
postponed until Thursday at Israel's request.
Recent reports from UN and Red Cross officials
in Egypt lend some support to Egyptian complaints
about Israeli obstinacy. Protracted inspections
of wounded evacuees and of convoy shipments, for
example, have caused long delays and the death of
some wounded Egyptians. Meanwhile, UN Assistant
Secretary General Urquhart has expressed concern
that Israel's suggestion that disengagement of
forces be the first agenda item at the peace con-
ference is a delaying tactic that could prompt
Cairo to break off the talks at Kilometer 101, seri-
ously complicating UN peace-keeping efforts.
(continued)
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At the Arab summit in Algiers yesterday, an
Egyptian spokesman expressed satisfaction with the
way the talks are going. He acknowledged that dif-
ferences between Jordan and the Palestine Liberation
Organization, over who should speak for the Palestin-
ians remain a major sticking point, and openly crit-
icized King Husayn for threatening not to attend the
peace conference if the summit designates the PLO to
represent the Palestinians.
Announcing Jordan's acceptance "in principle"
of the US-Soviet invitation to the peace conference
next month, Prime Minister Rifai reiterated that Jor-
dan will nonetheless stay away if the Arab leaders
declare the PLO the sole legitimate representative
of the Palestinian people. The summit participants
apparently decided yesterday, however, to disregard
Jordanian protests and give this status to the PLO,
according to late press reports from Algiers. Husayn
thus faces a serious dilemma. He clearly would pre-
fer to protect his own interests by attending the
peace conference, but he is not willing to concede
that Jordan has no right to speak for the Palestin-
ians.
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ISRAEL
Prime Minister Golda Meir is expected to beat
back critics within her own Labor Party and win a
vote of confidence at a meeting of the party's cen-
tral committee today.
The policies of Mrs. Meir and Defense Minister
Dayan have come under increasing criticism, espe-
cially from so-called doves within the party. Fi-
nance Minister Sapir, the party boss, and Foreign
Minister Eban are in this category, although open
criticism so far has come primarily from younger
Laborites and intellectuals. The prospect of an
early peace conference and of the paraliamentary elec-
tions scheduled for December 31 have added fuel to
the intraparty debate, as they have to the general
debate going on in the country.
Officials and commentators have been question-
ing both Israel's pre-war foreign policies and the
policies Israel should follow now. The party dis-
sidents have called for a variety of changes, in-
cluding a reshuffle or removal of the top leader-
ship and a softening of the party's stand on keep-
ing the occupied territories. The US Embassy ex-
pects that the party platform on this issue will be
softened by the committee, but that decisions on
other policy issues and on possible changes in key
leadership positions will be postponed in order to
maintain party unity for the elections.
The embassy also believes that a recent Is-
raeli newspaper poll predicting a sharp shift in
voter sentiment is too extreme. The poll claimed
that, if parliamentary elections were held now, the
majority held by the present coalition government
would be severely jeopardized.
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USSR-OIL
Although the Soviet Union does not face an oil
shortage as serious as that confronting the West,
Moscow is finding it increasingly difficult to sat-
isfy its domestic needs and export commitments. Cur-
rently, the USSR exports almost one quarter of its
oil, and production over the next few years should
allow sizable deliveries to Eastern and Western
Europe after domestic requirements are met. Moscow
has little if any uncommitted oil, however, and
there are already signs that it is straining to
honor its obligations.
When deliveries of Middle Eastern oil to East-
ern Europe were reduced because of the Arab-Israeli
war, the USSR was able to make up the difference
only at the expense of Western Europe. The Soviets
were forced to reduce deliveries to Italy, for ex-
ample, in order to compensate Eastern Europe for
the slackening in Iraqi oil exports. The Soviets
reportedly are also running behind on oil deliver-
ies to France and West Germany.
Within the USSR, the petroleum industry has
encountered major problems in oil drilling and pro-
duction. About half of the proved oil reserves lie
in permafrost areas, where exploitation is difficult
and costly and domestic equipment and technology are
inadequate. Older fields are being depleted more
rapidly than expected.
Over the longer run, the Soviet petroleum in-
dustry will have to rely on Western hardware and
techniques to overcome the serious problems it faces.
During the past three years the Soviets have ordered
technology from the West costing more than $400 mil-
lion. Without prompt and effective application of
modern techniques, together with some luck in find-
ing new, accessible reserves, the USSR may no longer
be a net exporter of oil in the 1980s. It may have
to turn to foreign oil to meet part of its steadily
growing domestic demand.
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JAPAN
Prime Minister Tanaka's cabinet reshuffle fol-
lowing Finance Minister Aichi's sudden death, par-
ticularly the elevation of Takeo Fukuda to Aichi's
post, should permit the government to deal more
forcefully with Japan's pressing economic problems.
Fukuda has been one of Tanaka's harshest critics
and he probably accepted the powerful Finance Min-
istry only after being promised relative freedom in
directing the government's economic programs.
Soon after assuming office, Fukuda called for
a moratorium on government investment in public con-
struction projects and rejected measures to stimu-
late the slowing Japanese economy. To further curb
inflation, Fukuda may press Tanaka to scrap politi-
cally popular proposals to reduce personal income
taxes.
Tanaka has also made strong appointments to
some of the ten lesser cabinet posts involved in
the reshuffle.
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NOTES
China: a
second large facility for producing solid-propellant
strategic missiles has begun limited operations.
The plant, located in central China, appears to have
a larger capacity than the first one constructed in
north central China in the late 1960s. Construction
of two such development and production facilities
indicates that Peking intends to deploy a variety
of solid-propellant missile systems in the future.
Progress has been slow, however, and the first of
these systems is not expected to become operational
for several years.
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Top Secret
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