THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 8 NOVEMBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993980
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 8, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
8 November 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I ),(2).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
8 November 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Israel continues to fear another Egyptian attack,
and Syrian military officers are looking for a pre-
text for a new round of fighting. In Cairo, atten-
tion focused yesterday on Secretary Kissinger'S
visit?called "fruitful and constructive" by Presi-
dent Sadat--and on the agreement to exchange ambas-
sadors. (Page 1)
The EC foreign ministers apparently believe that the
generally pro-Arab resolution they adopted on Tues-
day will lead Arab oil producers to ease the fuel
shortage facing all EC members, particularly the
Dutch. (Page 3)
The Soviets have broached a three-stage proposal for
force reductions in Europe from 1975-1977. Moscow's
plan is ambiguous on several points and conflicts
with NATO's approach in many key respects. (Page 4)
Cambodian Government forces have suffered several
setbacks recently. The insurgents continue to
threaten an all-out military effort during the dry
season just starting. (Page 5)
In Laos, the government has edged closer to full
implementation of the peace agreement, but obstacles
remain. (Page 6)
Two Soviet naval ships on a midshipmen training
cruise have made port calls in Peru and Ecuador.
The Soviets use such cruises as a low-key way of
showing the flag. (Page 7)
Notes on the European Communities, Portugal, Chile,
Japan, and Turkey appear on Page 8.
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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
The Israelis continue to anticipate an Egyptian
attack, and Syria is reportedly preparing contingency
plans for renewed fighting. In Cairo, attention
focused yesterday on Secretary Kissinger's visit--
called "fruitful and constructive" by President
Sadat--and on the agreement to exchange ambassadors.
An Israeli Defense Ministry official has claimed
that within the past few days over 500 Egyptian tanks
have deployed west of Israeli positions on the west
bank of the Suez Canal. Egyptian forces there are
said to be equipped with surface-to-air missiles.
Moreover, north of Deversoir the Egyptians have con-
centrated "tens" of artillery batteries, possibly to
attack Israeli bridges across the Canal.
Should hostilities resume, Cairo would certainly want
to isolate Israeli forces on the west bank. The
Egyptians may think they can achieve this by inten-
sive artillery shelling of Israeli bridges, and an
armored thrust to capture Deversoir.
The Israeli Air Force chief told a US official
yesterday that the air force_will not launch a pre-
emptive strike against Egypt. He added, however,
that he expects the Egyptians tip attack as soon.. as
Secretary Kissinger leaves Cairo, and warned that
the Israelis would fight "with the gloves off."
In Syria, militaryofficers_are.said to be look-.
for 4 pretext for another_round of fighting. 25X1
the Syrians have plans 25X1
to penetrate rapidly into Israel proper and are pre-
pared to bomb military and civilian targets inside
Israel. President Asad 25X1
that the Israeli salient into Syria is 25X1
vulnerable to counterattack. Despite Syria's heavy
economic losses, Asad said, a good part of the army
is intact and capable of fighting. President Asad
added that the Soviets have brought Syria's aircraft
inventory almost back to pre-war levels.
ing
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Moscow has also
given 687 T-62 tanks, a number of new antitank weap-
ons and SA-6 missiles, new naval equipment, MIG-17
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aircraft, and MI-8 helicopters modified to carry
bombs and rockets. Some 480 Soviet officers and
civilian experts, many of whom will help Damascus
organize a "new air force," have reportedly arrived
in Syria since the cease-fire. The Syrian source
also claims that three Soviet-piloted MIG-25 high-
altitude reconnaissance aircraft have been stationed
Iraq has decided to return its troops to the
Syrian front,
The move apparently came in re-
sponse to the urgings of Presidents Qadhafi and
Boumediene, who visited the Iraqi capital separately
over the weekend. The Iraqis are insisting on par-
ticipating in future inter-Arab planning. They were
angered when the cease-fire took them by surprise.
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EC - MIDDLE EAST
The EC foreign ministers apparently believe that
the generally pro-Arab resolution they adopted on
Tuesday will lead the Arab oil producers to ease the
,fuel shortage facing all EC members, particularly the
Dutch,
,the French gave "assurances" that the Arabs, in re-
turn for the declaration, would see to it that Europe,
including the Dutch, would not lack for oil. The
French may have indicated that the Arabs would acqui-
esce in some quiet help for the Dutch by the Community,
EC Commissioner for Energy Simonet believes that such
aid will be forthcoming, despite British and French
? opposition to Dutch demands for Community solidarity
on oil supplies.
The atmosphere at the Brussels meeting was re-
ported to be especially tense when the Frenchpro-
posed-that the Nine seize the occasion to dissociate
themselves from the US and establish an independent
position embracing neutrality on the Middle East,
both with respect to the superpowers and to the
, Arabs and Israelis. The French linked this ideawith
their proposal to develop alternative sources of
energy by constructing a $2-billion gaseous diffusion
plant to supply Europe with enriched uranium. The
other council members demurred, despite the evident
desire of some to distance themselves from the- US.
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USSR - FORCE REDUCTIONS
The Soviets have given US negotiators in Vienna
a preview of proposal's they..willtable at today's
session. Chief delegate _Khlestov outlined a three-
stage program for force reductions from 1975-1977. ?
It calls for a symbolic reduction of 20,000 men by
each of the direct participants in the talks as a
first step. Both sides would follow this with sec-
ond and third phase reductions of five and ten per-
cent respectively. An agreement .covering all three
stages would be concluded as a whole.
Khlestov's definition of .the area of reductions
appears to include only territory of direct partici-
pants, thus excluding Hungary. , He indicated that
all forces, including air and those with nuclear
arms would be Involved.. Forces would be reduced in
units, with stationed (primarily ps and Soviet)_
forces sent hone and.units of other countries "de- -
mobilized."
The Soviet plan, as presented informally by
Khlestov, contains several ambiguities, and conflicts
with NATO's approach on many key points. The pro-
posal apparently does not distinguish between sta-
tioned and indigenous forces during the first phase
of reductions. NATO has agreed that Soviet and US
forces should be reduced first. East European dele-
gates at the Vienna talks have already branded that
approach unacceptable,
In addition, NATO has agreed
ten percent of its forces should
be reduced, and is against including air forces.
Moscow's proposal implicitly rejects NATO's
preference for asymmetrical reductions to compensate
for important Warsaw Pact advantages, Moreover, the
Soviet initiative apparently makes no allusion to
constraints, i.e., measures limiting certain types
of military activity, which are an important aspect
of NATO's negotiating position. Similarly, except
for a proposal on giving notification as reductions
are implemented, there is no mention of verifica-
tion--another sensitive matter in NATO's view.
that not more than
The initial reaction of NATO representatives
who were informed of_the Soviet proposal was that
NATO should table its own proposal soon.
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mpong Thom
Miles
ui Chinit
CAMBODIA
Kompon
Chhnang
Tuk Laak
Sala Lek
Pram
Communists
extend area
of control
6
PHNOM PENH
4
ompong
?? Speu
tTram
>".-Khnar
Srand\I
Abando
by govern ent
Komp,or...?g_Ctila
MEKONG
Villages retaken
(?by Government
?Vihear Suor
Neak Luong_
VINH RACH GIA
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CAMBODIA
Government forces have suffered several setbacks
recently. On November 4, government troops were
forced out of Tuk Laak, north of Phnom Penh on Route 5.
The insurgents now hold an 11-mile section of the
highway, and the. government apparently has. given up
any hope of reopening it this year.
On November 3, rebels also drove government units
out of Tram Khnar, southwest of Phnom Penh on Route 3.
About 1,300 troops and 3,000 civilians had been there,
and only a few hundred have made their wayback to
friendly lines. Intercepted messages indicate that
the Communists may have captured as many as 900 pris-
oners and much military equipment. In addition, the
town of Srang was evacuated yesterday. There'were
700 troops and 4,000 civilians at Srang, which was
the last government enclave in the area. Although
the loss of these towns will have little effect on
the tacticalsituation, these reverses are bound to
demoralize the Cambodian Army.
Closer to Phnom Penh, government forces have
pushed the insurgents back on the east bank of the
Mekong, recapturing several villages within ten miles
of the capital. The Communists, however, are contin-
uing to harass Vihear SuOr, the government's main
garrison in this area. Government attempts to retake
ground south of the capital have been unsuccessful.
The insurgents continue to threaten publicly an
all-out military effort during the dry season just
starting. Sihanouk's in-country "Defense Minister"
has called for attacks in "areas surrounding Phnom'
Penh" and against provincial capitals, as well as in-
tensified efforts to block land and river access to
Phnom Penh.
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LAOS
The government has edged closer to full imple-
mentation .of the peace agreement, but several obsta-
cles remain. On November 6, the National Assembly
passed a resolution. generally supporting the peace
agreements and the principle of a new coalition gov-
ernment. The resolution is a good deal less than a
ringing endorsement, but Prime Minister Souvanna will
no doubt claim it fulfills the constitutional require-
ment for Assembly approval before a new coalition gov-
ernment can be invested by the King.
Souvanna has not yet been able to name his new
cabinet, however. The Communists have refused to pro-
vide the names of their candidates until all their
security and administrative personnel have arrived and
been properly lodged in Vientiane and Luang Prabang.
The Communists have stated, however, that when the cur-
rent airlift is completed next week, they will agree
to activate formally the Joint Committee to Implement
the Agreement. This should satisfy those military
leaders who see the Joint Committee as the only legal
mechanism for controlling the movement of Communist
personnel in Vientiane and Luang Prabang.
.The November 6 resolution calls for continued
consultation between Souvanna and the Assembly. Some
deputies believe that Souvanna will have to obtain As-
sembly approval, presumably by calling a special ses-
sion, when he is ready to form his new government.
With the King's backing, however, Souvanna has the
authority to choose ministers without consulting the
Assembly.
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USSR LATIN AMERICA
A Soviet submarine tender and a naval oiler on
a midshipmen training cruise have completed port calls
in Peru and Ecuador and are returning to Vladivostok.
After the Chilean coup of September 11, the military
junta canceled the ship's scheduled visit to Santiago.
This is the second Soviet naval visit to Latin
America this year. Last winter, another tender with
midshipmen aboard called at Rio de Janeiro, and later
at Cienfuegos, Cuba. The Soviet Navy uses these
training cruises as a low-key method of showing the
flag.
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NOTES
? European Communities: EC foreign ministers
agreed this week on most of the proposed tariff
concessions aimed at compensating non-EC countries
for higher export costs resulting from the increase
in Community membership last January. The EC may
make a formal offer soon. The proposed concessions
cover several commodities--trucks and plywood, for
example--which the U$ exports. They avoid others,
however, and the reductions themselves will fall
far short of US desires. The EC is likely to pre-
sent its offer as final, but there are signs that
strong adverse reaction from non-EC countries could
force a reappraisal.
Portugal: Arab oil producing states have report-
edly embargoed petroleum shipments to Portugal because
of its cooperation with the US in the resupply of Is-
rael. Access to Angolan oil, however, which is ample
to meet Portugal's needs, should overcome any problems
the embargo may create.
Chile: Brazil and Argentina are ready to extend
additional credits to Chile totaling $442 million,
These
credits, added to $171 million from US and Canadian
banks and another $75 million under consideration by
the banks, would bring total credits to some $688 mil-
lion:. Over $200 million of the Brazilian-Argentine
total is earmarked for capital goods imports, essential
for, Chile's eaonomic recovery.
Japan: Controls on foreign capital inflows are
being eased in response to the weakening of the yen
and the decline in official foreign exchange holdings.
Tokyo has removed all limits on stock purchases by
foreigners, dropped the requirement that foreign bonds
sold in Japan be converted into dollars, and relaxed
the limit on prepayments,for exports. Official re-
serves declined by $750 million in October and have
continued to drop this month. If the yen does not
soon stabilize, a further loosening of restrictions
is likely.
(continued)
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Turkey: Republican Peoples Party leader Ecevit's
attempts to form a coalition government have failed,
and he has asked President Koruturk ?to relieve him of
responsibility as formateur. Koruturk may now ask a
leader from the center or right to form a government.
If no one can put together a majority coalition, po-
litical leaders might agree on an "above parties"
government similar to the regime of the past two
years.
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