THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 3 NOVEMBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993976
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 3, 1973

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79i00936A011800030003-1
The President's Daily Brief
3 November 1973
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800030003-1
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( 11d2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
3 November 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Talk of resumption of hostilities in the Middle
East is being heard on each side.
Presi-
dent Sadat has met with a number of Arab leaders.
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsov leaves
Cairo today for talks in Syria. Peace talks may
open in Romania.
(Page 1)
details the number and kinds
shipped to Egypt and Syria.
Soviet port of Nikolayev
of military equipment
(Page 3)
The issue of oil may be leading the European Com-
munities into a serious confrontation. (Page 4)
The yen depreciated another two percent yesterday;
the dollar continues to gain ground on major markets.
(Page 6)
Young Cambodian officers and intellectuals are
plotting against the government. Prince Sihanouk
has been rebuffed by Khmer Communists, who claim
they will take the country in the next dry season.
(Page 7)
There is growing opposition in Bangladesh to Mujib's
government. (Page 9)
Notes are included on
Vietnam,I
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Cyprus, and a 25X1
tightened curfew in Chile this weekend. (Page 10)
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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
Some UN observers believe that the Egyptians
are bolstering their military position rather than
reinforcing the cease-fire.
On the diplomatic front, President Sadat
earlier this week made a whirlwind trip to Kuwait,
where he conferred with Syrian President Asad and
Kuwait's Shaykh Sabah. He then flew to Riyadh for
a meeting with King Faysal. The results of Foreign
Minister Fahmi's talks in Washington and coordina-
tion of plans for next week's discussions with
Secretary Kissinger were the main items on the
agenda.
Upon his return, Sadat also met with Algerian
President Boumediene. Details on the meeting have
not been released, but the Algerian leader--unhappy
with Egypt's acceptance of the cease-fire--may have
tried to persuade Sadat to take a hard position on
Israeli withdrawal, and perhaps even to initiate
new hostilities.
(continued)
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Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsov winds
up his intensive talks with Egyptian leaders today
and will head for Damascus. The Soviets continue
to express concern about Egypt's Third Army. The
deputy director of TASS in Cairo told a US diplomat
that Sadat is under considerable pressure from
middle-grade and junior officers to approve a major
effort to break through Israeli lines toward the
army, possibly before Secretary Kissinger's visit.
The TASS representative also said that the Egyptians
had pressed Kuznetsov hard for more arms even though,
the Soviet official claimed, they have already re-
ceived enough equipment to replace their losses.
Meanwhile, preparations for negotiations seem
to be under way in Romania. Ambassador Keating was
informed by the Israeli Foreign Ministry yesterday
that Minister Eban has accepted an "urgent invita-
tion" of the Romanian Government to visit Bucharest
for "high-level consultations" with representatives
of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Morocco, and Algeria.
Eban plans to leave on Sunday after conferring with
Prime Minister Meir, who is returning from the US
on the same day.
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USSR - MIDDLE EAST
the port fa-
cilities at Nikolayev on the Black Sea provides
details on the numbers and types of military equip-
ment that apparently was being shipped to Syria and
Egypt.
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most of the equipment being shipped 25X1
consisted of tanks and armored combat vehicles. A
small amount of other ground forces equipment, in-
cluding SA-6 surface-to-air missile equipment, anti-
aircraft artillery, and multiple rocket launchers
was also observed at the port. The equipment ap-
parently was being shipped in a near combat-ready
condition.
a total of 455 tanks and armored 25X1
combat vehicles were seen. the number 25X1
of tanks and armored vehicles had declined to 273
160 were observed. Despite 25X1
this decline, it is likely that the number of tanks
and armored vehicles that passed through the port
was greater than the cumulative total for the three
coverages. On each occasion, the vehicles were
parked in different positions and ground scarring
increased dramatically.
The pattern of ground scarring indicates that
after the tanks were unloaded from trains, they
were moved to a field adjacent to the rail yard.
From there, they were first moved to an area where
they were loaded with ammunition. Then they were
moved to a point where the vehicles were fueled.
Thus, the tanks and other vehicles were shipped in
as combat-ready condition as possible, and could
have been sent to the battle area immediately after
being unloaded.
The tanks appeared to be parked in groupings
approximately the size of various Soviet armored
units--mostly in groups of 32 to 35 tanks. The
absence of any supporting vehicles or equipment
that are organic to a Soviet tank unit suggests,
however, that these were not actual combat units.
The tanks may have been loaded and unloaded by
Soviet troops who parked them according to the
structure of the unit.
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WESTERN EUROPE - MIDDLE EAST
The oil problem and responses to Middle East
political developments will be on the respective
agendas of an EC Council meeting next week and a
separate session of the foreign ministers "on the
margins" of the Council meeting. The Dutch--singled
out for an Arab oil boycott--have requested joint
community measures, including EC sharing of oil sup-
plies.
The Dutch are ready to hold hostage other areas
of community policy-making in order to get positive
action on oil. The French
are looking at oil questions as leverage for
obtaining financial and trade concessions from their
EC partners. Thus a serious confrontation may be in
the making.
The EC Commission has so far been able to agree
only to propose a community system of export licensing
for petroleum products--which could allow The Hague
to limit such exports to other EC members. More far-
reaching measures are viewed warily by several of the
Netherlands' partners who fear that sharing arrangements
could bring down Arab wrath on them.
Quick EC action thus seems unlikely and it is
doubtful that a common stand will be reached at a
scheduled Council session on energy policy on Novem-
ber 21. Meanwhile, tensions between effectively em-
bargoed states and those with more ample supplies
may well increase.
Oil sharing is also on the agenda of the OECD
Oil Committee's High Level Group session on Novem-
ber 19. The OECD secretary general is, however, ask-
ing members to consider whether the meeting should
not be held earlier. The US attitude toward partici-
pation in oil-sharing schemes may be a decisive in-
fluence on European efforts both within the community
and the OECD. The US mission in Brussels believes
that evidence of US preparedness to make sacrifices
to match European risks might have a significant
effect on "stiffening spines" in Europe.
NATO, meanwhile, is preparing for a possible
study of the economic and financial consequences for
the alliance of Arab use of the "oil weapon."
(continued)
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On the EC political front, the nine foreign min-
isters may attempt to frame another common declara-
tion on a Middle East peace settlement at their meet-
ing next week. An existing draft generally endorses
Security Council resolutions and emphasizes that any
negotiations must take place within the UN framework.
Any new declaration is likely to be bland because of
continuing differences among the Nine over how their
interests would be affected by a forthright stand.
The French and British also have a lingering belief
in the efficacy of their own diplomacy.
French President Pompidou's call earlier this
week for a summit reflects the urgency for a Euro-
pean response to the Middle East situation, but could
also have the effect of deferring concrete proposals
until the heads of government can meet. The Danish
prime minister has invited the Nine to Copenhagen on
December 15-16.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
The central bank of Japan permitted the yen to
slip another 2 percent against the dollar yesterday
before intervening in the market. The day before
the yen was allowed to depreciate by 1 percent. At
the new intervention point of 275 yen to the dollar,
the Bank of Japan had to sell about $200 million
yesterday, bringing total dollar sales during the
week to about $800 million. Despite these actions,
the pressure on the yen continues because traders
expect it to fall still farther.
The dollar has been gradually gaining ground
on the major money markets since the low point
reached in early July, appreciating by an average
of 6 percent. The most important factor is the
improving US trade balance. The announcement that
US trade in September showed a seasonally adjusted
surplus of $873 million confirmed trader optimism
about the long-run prospects for the dollar. In
addition, differences in interest rates in the major
countries have narrowed.
The growing confidence in the dollar was not
shaken by the Middle East war. No substantial
capital movements occurred, even though several
Arab countries sold dollars.
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CAMBODIA
There is fresh evidence of political ferment
among some of the younger military leaders and ci-
vilian intellectuals in Phnom Penh.
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National Assemblyman Thach Toan,
has told an embassy officer that he has a plan to
establish a new government of young military officers
and technicians. Its objective, however, would be
to fight for "total victory." Toan says that he in-
tends to apprise Lon Nol of his plan soon, but will
move even if he does not gain the President's support.
Although Toan states that it will take at least
two more months to complete his political preparations,
he claims that he already has the backing of 50 as-
sembly deputies and of some military officers who
collectively command 5,000 troops. Toan's claims of
support are open to question, but his statements re-
flect a widespread belief that the present state of
affairs cannot continue.
The Khmer Communists have bluntly rejected Si-
hanouk's recent public assessment that they will be
unable to achieve a military solution in Cambodia
during the forthcoming dry season. In a snide "birth-
day greeting" to the Prince on October 26, Sihanouk's
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in-country "defense minister," Khieu Samphan, stated
that the war is entering a "decisive and irreversible
phase" that will soon lead to "total victory." He
referred to forthcoming dry season offensives "in
all regions," indicating that the Communists may in-
tend a widespread offensive rather than one aimed
exclusively at the capital itself.
The bellicose tone of the message--the first
authoritative public statement by the Khmer Commu-
nist leaders on their military intentions since the
insurgents' failure to take Kompong Cham in September--
is reflected in Communist tactical communications.
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BANGLADESH
There is growing dissatisfaction within the
bureaucracy, the military, and the ruling Awami
League over inefficiency, corruption, and nepotism
in Prime Minister Mujib's government. Opposition
groups, growing both in number and in size, are
now publicly criticizing Mujib; some are openly
committed to ousting his government.
Lawlessness has become a major concern of both
the government and the people. Successful attacks
against more than 20 police posts by political
groups seeking arms have added a disturbing new
element to the situation. A relatively high level
of crime and violence have plagued Dacca since in-
dependence, but until recently this generally has
been the work of common criminals.
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NOTES
Vietnam: Further analysis of a recently inter-
cepted Communist message, which showed that infiltra-
tion of 13,000 troops through Laos to COSVN and the
central highlands of South Vietnam would begin in
November, indicates that this movement will be
stretched out over the next five months. Under this
timetable, the infiltration would not be "large-scale"
in fact, it would be an extremely small
figure for such a period of time if it refers to com-
bat troops. Since no infiltration groups have been
spotted moving toward this area since last March,
the message may actually refer to logistical troops
earmarked for service along the new supply corridor
in South Vietnam.
Cyprus:
Chile: Curfew restrictions in Santiago have
been tightened this weekend, probably on the assump-
tion that leftists will attempt to stage violent
disturbances in commemoration of the late President
Allende's inauguration on November 4, 1973.
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Top Secret
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