THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 31 OCTOBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993971
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 31, 1973

-Zri ?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy-Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
The President's Daily Brief
31 October 1973
5
-----nrsrei4e4.25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
2?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 513(1).(2).13)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
r-
_ L
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
31 October 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
(Page 1)
With the cease-fire taking hold, Israel is pushing
hard for return of its prisoners-of-war. Cairo con-
tinues to insist, however, that it will exchange
prisoners only after Israeli troops return to posi-
tions held prior to the cease-fire. (Page 3)
Having decided to make an example of the Dutch, the
Arabs are drawing the noose still tighter. Libya and
Bahrain announced yesterday that they will ban oil
shipments to the Netherlands, and the Saudis are
likely to do the same. (Page 5)
Some West Europeans have begun to suggest that the
US take the initiative on oil sharing in view of the
disarray within the EC over attempts to develop a
common response to Arab oil cutbacks. (Page 6)
Venezuela is considering requiring foreign oil com-
panies to make royalty payments in oil instead of
cash. This would probably result in the diversion
of some oil to countries willing to outbid US com-
panies. (Page 7)
Communist military action has increased in widely
scattered areas of South Vietnam, but the major at-
tacks that had been forecast north of Saigon have
not materialized.
(Page 8)
Notes on recent Soviet propaganda treatment of the
US and on Soviet-Iranian economic cooperation appear
on Page 9.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20: CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Declassified in Part :Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR - MIDDLE EAST
2
25X1 25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
5X1
1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
25X
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ISRAEL
25X1
2bAl
25X1
25X1
25X1
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
With the cease-fire taking hold, Israel contin-
ues to push hard for return of its prisoners of war.
Cairo has made some conciliatory gestures--agreeing
to hand over the names of some POWs, for example--
but Foreign Minister Eban told Ambassador Keating
yesterday that the Egyptians still have a long way
to go to meet Israeli demands.
Eban said Tel Aviv wants a total exchange of
POWs in the next week or so, and he stressed that Is-
rael's attitude concerning humanitarian help for the
Egyptian Third Army will be influenced greatly by
Cairo's behavior on the POW issue. The Israeli For-
eign Minister also expressed acute anxiety over the
fate of prisoners in Syrian hands, adding that Tel
Aviv has begun to document Syrian atrocities. Ambas-
sador Keating reported that Eban's remarks reflect
the present mood in Israel--one of "great, almost
consuming concern" with the POW issue.
Cairo's insistence that it will exchange pris-
oners only after Israeli troops return to positions
held prior to the cease-fire of October 22 will ham-
per the negotiations. Syria has not yet responded
to Israel's POW exchange proposal.
, US diplomats in Cairo report that the Egyptian
press is becoming increasingly bellicose. The semi-
official daily Al Ahram yesterday picked up the theme
of authoritative columnist Ihsan Abd al-Quddus that
Egypt should not lay down its arms but rather prepare
for a "greater and more violent battle." This may
be largely bluster designed to obscure Cairo's re-
cent military reverses, which are only gradually be-
coming known to the Egyptian public. Al-Quddus,
however, often reflects government views; he was the
only important Egyptian commentator calling for war
prior to its unleashing on October 6.
The Egyptian news agency has announced that So-
viet First Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsov arrived
in Cairo yesterday. Kuznetsov has performed as
trouble-shooting emissary abroad during periods of
tension in the past.
(continued)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Soviet Airborne Installations Photographed
7 Alert activity
4c, 7
Normal activity
Kaunas
sy/jtebsk
*MOSCOW
eselyy Kut,
.iroyiabad
e
e f .7-,--
: ?,-,.?
r /
Ak-
- , - , ) _ ? ,t-6,?,-r
f #
, .
- /1" eolieCerellort ,,,,,' '
'1" ?? i ' - ?-- 1, F V,
t" e ? ?
I, l '......,...
? A ki P' I
USSR
,
e4ane
?
0 500 ,
NAUTICAL MILES
r
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
4
25X1
2bAl
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1 25X11
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A01-1800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ARAB STATES - NETHERLANDS
The Arabs, having decided to make an example of
the Dutch because of their pro-Israeli stand during
the fighting, are drawing the noose still tighter.
Libya and Bahrain announced yesterday that they are
imposing a total ban on oil shipments to the Nether- 25X1
lands. In addition, Saudi Arabia has threatened to
cut its oil exports unless The Hague denounces Is-
raeli aggression and calls for withdrawal from Arab 25X1
territory.
25X1
The Netherlands is an important oil processing
and distribution center for Western Europe. Conse-
quently an oil embargo would have far-reaching effects
there.
5
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
A
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A01-1800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
EC-US
Some Europeans have begun to suggest that the
US take the initiative on oil sharing in view of the
disarray within the EC over attempts to develop a
common response to Arab oil cutbacks. EC energy
commissioner Simonet cited several obstacles to the
development of an internal community policy:
--The British still believe that the interna-
tional oil companies can deal effectively with
the Arab oil producers;
--The French, concerned about maintaining their
own ties to the Arabs, are wary of any EC oil
policy that would be tantamount to a community
foreign policy.
--The West Germans are opposed to any common EC
policy that would be contrary to US views.
Simonet suggested that the US should propose an
"energy charter," which presumably could be used as
point of departure for developing a US-European oil
policy. The Dutch, increasingly worried over Arab
action in singling them out for an oil embargo, have
also asked about US willingness to participate in
an oil-sharing scheme. Meanwhile, a high Luxembourg
Foreign Ministry official told the US Embassy on
October 29 that now might be the time for the US to
offer proposals on energy cooperation.
6
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
0,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
VENEZUELA-OIL
Caracas is considering requiring foreign oil
companies to make royalty payments in oil instead
of cash. Such payments could amount to about 600,000
barrels per day, which the state oil company would
presumably sell to the highest bidder.
Such action probably would result in the diver-
sion of some oil to countries willing to outbid US
companies. Brazil's state oil company, for example,
reportedly needs 300,000 b/d to replace anticipated
losses from the Middle East and can afford to pay a
premium price. The Conference of Latin American
Energy Ministers now being held in Lima may exert
additional pressure on Caracas to provide more oil
to Latin America.
With Venezuelan general elections only a few
weeks away, the governing Social Christian Party
probably hopes that such a move would attract more
popular support for its presidential candidate, who
is in an extremely close race.
7
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
25X1
25X1
Q
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SOUTH VIETNAM
Communist military action has increased in widely
scattered areas, but the major attacks that had been
forecast north of Saigon have not materialized.
Sources continue to report, however, that the Commu-
nists plan to intensify harassing operations in Novem-
ber and December, particularly in the provinces around
the capital.
Local Viet Cong forces are being told that they
will contribute to a nationwide--but limited--military
"campaign." Communists in Long An Province have been
told that the purpose is to force Saigon's compliance
with the Paris cease-fire agreement and to counter the
government's increasing military boldness. Other ma-
jor goals are to secure rice and rebuild sagging Viet
Cong morale.
Saigon's forces have carried out extensive spoil-
ing actions north of the capital that may have set back
any Communist timetable for major attacks in that area.
Senior military officers continue to believe that the
Communists could launch a major offensive, but they
are now convinced that the action in the next few weeks
will focus on increased harassment of isolated and out-
lying government positions.
Prime Minister Khiem recently said that the gov-
ernment does not have the hard evidence to predict a
major North Vietnamese offensive in the coming dry
season. He does expect fairly active fighting in Dinh
Tuong, Tay Ninh, and Pleiku provinces lasting through
the 1974 dry season.
8
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A01 1800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTES
USSR-US: The Soviets have begun since last Fri-
day to cast doubt on US justification of last week's
military alert. Soviet propaganda has embroidered on
Moscow's first public reaction to the alert--a TASS
statement of October 27--by relating Washington's ac-
tion to domestic political events in the US. Moscow
has also been reportin ne ative reactions in Western
Euro e.
at yesterday's session
o SALT In Geneva, Semenov reverted to harsh polemical
charges concerning the arms race, although he avoided
? any specific allusion to events connected with the
situation in the Middle East.
USSR-Iran: A protocol signed by the two coun-
tries last week will boost economic cooperation. The
most important provision calls for Iran to deliver
natural gas to the Soviet Union for local use. This
will help solve Soviet internal distribution problems
and will enable Moscow to export other gas from fields
in the western USSR to West Germany. Under the pro-
tocol the Soviets will participate in a wide range of
projects in Iran. They agreed, for example, to build
two large thermal power plants, two cement factories,
and a petrochemical plant.
9
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
25X1
_
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
(continued)
A-1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
2bAl
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
A-2
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
2b..1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T009-36A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
A-3
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Declassified inPart- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T009-3-6A011800020014-0
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
A-4
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
_?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0
Top Secret
Declassified in Part :Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/20 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011800020014-0