THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 22 OCTOBER 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993963
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 22, 1973

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The President's Daily Brief
22 October 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedole of ED. 11652
exemption category 513(1).(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
22 October 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Israeli forces on the west bank of the Suez Canal
have cut the supply lines of large Egyptian forces
in Sinai. The Syrian front was quiet. Eight Arab
governments have stopped exporting oil to the US.
(Page 1)
Bahrain, in retaliation for US aid to Israel, has
terminated an agreement allowing the US Navy to use
its port. ' (Page 5)
A recent border incident is likely to increase ten-
sions between Pakistanj rand Afghanistan. (Page 6) -
West Germany and Poland have moved closer to a deal
involving Bonn's credits in return for faster repatri-
ation of ethnic Germans from Poland. (Page 7)
Cambodia has a new cabinet. In Tam remains as premier;
most members are holdovers. (Page 8)
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Suez Canal Zone
Damietta
Mediterranean Sea
Salihiyah
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't Egyptian Forces ?
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL
The three Israeli armored brigades on the west
bank of the Suez Canal have expanded and consolidated
their bridgehead over the weekend. To date, they have
cut the roads from Cairo to Suez City and to Ismailia,
thus greatly reducing the flow of supplies to Egyptian
forces on the east bank.
Moreover, the Israelis have been periodically
attacking a major supply line at Al Qantarah. As a
result, Egyptian forces on the east bank could soon
begin running short of tank, antitank, and artillery
shells.
Supply shortages logically should first affect
Egyptian forces fighting in the southern sector of
the east bank. These forces are cut off by the Is-
raeli corridor leading to Deversoir, and on the west
bank their lines of communication to Suez City have
been at least sporadically cut. Lack of supplies will
limit the aggressiveness of this force and hamper any
plans for thrusts toward the Mitla or Gidi Passes.
The Israelis appear to be gaining increasing
freedom of action in the skies over the Suez Canal.
The Syrian front appears to have been relatively
quiet over the weekend, despite claims from both sides
that their forces were attacking and counterattacking.
A second Jordanian brigade was scheduled to arrive at
the front today, but it may not come, in view of King
Husayn's reluctance and the UN Security Council's
adoption of a resolution calling for a cease-fire.
Saudi Arabian troops were engaged for the first time
over the weekend.
The Arabs still could again try to seize the in-
itiative along the Syrian front. The Iraqis apparently
have been heavily reinforcing their contingentd
Israeli Defense
Minister Dayan admitted on Saturday that most of the
Syrian Army has not been put out of action.
(continued)
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The Soviets continue to build their naval squad-
ron in the Mediterranean. It now consists of 20 ma-
jor surface combatants, eight amphibious ships, two
minesweepers, and 16 submarines, plus auxiliaries.
This is the largest Soviet naval force ever to oper-
ate in the area. The majority of these vessels are
in the eastern part of the sea.
Eight Arab states have banned the shipment of
oil to the US. They are Dubai, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain,
Abu Dhabi, Algeria, Libya, and Saudi Arabia. Iraq
has nationalized Dutch oil holdings because of the
Netherlands' pro-Israeli attitude. Yesterday, Algeria
cut off oil shipments to the Netherlands.
The Security Council resolution calling for a
cease-fire has been endorsed by the Israelis, with
a qualification that withdrawal is subject to replace-
ment of the 1967 cease-fire lines with secure and
recognized boundaries defined in a peace treaty with
the Arabs. Israel may request boundary guarantees
from the US and the USSR, and is insisting on return
of its prisoners.
Although Egypt has not yet made any comment,
acceptance of a cease-fire seems likely. Foreign
Minister Zayyat made no suggestion in the Council
meeting that Egypt would reject the resolution; the
fact that his Arab allies voted affirmatively indi-
cates that Zayyat had given his approval. Egypt
could, however, withhold formal endorsement of the
full resolution as a bargaining point in the nego-
tiations.
(continued)
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There has been no immediate response from Syria,
which would lose the most territory in a cease-fire
at present positions. Syria was not represented at
the start of the Security Council session, and there
were press reports that Damascus was boycotting the
meeting.
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As of early this morning, fighting was reportedly
light on the Egyptian front and was confined to Is-
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raeli air patrols over the Syrian front.
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USSR - MIDDLE EAST
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
BAHRAIN-US
Bahrain formally served notice on the US Embassy
on Saturday, terminating the Middle East Forces Sta-
tioning Agreement in retaliation for US support of
Israel. The Foreign Minister confirmed Bahrain's in-
tention to honor the accord's provision for one-year's
notice from October 20, 1973. He commented, however,
that Bahrain would prefer an earlier departure of
the US Navy, if feasible.
The Foreign Minister stated that Bahrain's action
was prompted by the President's submission to Congress
of the "large emergency security assistance bill."
He added that the announcement of the Arab oil cut-
back had brought pressure on Bahrain, which has no
oil, to take some other action against the US.
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PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN
A recent incident along the border is likely to
increase tensions between the two countries. The
Afghans captured a small Pakistani paramilitary force
that had crossed the frontier, allegedly in pursuit
of smugglers. Islamabad has expressed regret, offered
to compensate the family of an Afghan soldier killed
during the incident, and asked Kabul to return the
captured Pakistanis.
Kabul will probably react sharply to the incur-
sion and refuse to release the intruders. Only last
week, the Afghans warned Islamabad of "very serious
consequences" if Pakistan did not cease "provocations"
along the border, and they may be genuinely concerned
over Pakistani reinforcement in the frontier area.
The Pakistanis recently brought a 1,500-man armored
unit into an area normally guarded by frontier forces,
and President Bhutto's decision to reactivate a road-
building project close to the border has increased
Afghan anxieties.
Islamabad's actions reflect Bhutto's growing
concern over Kabul's attempts to promote self-
determination for minorities living on both sides of
the border. There is no evidence that Afghan forces
have deployed in anticipation of military action
against Pakistan, but the Afghans may be training
minorities for guerrilla warfare.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
WEST GERMANY - POLAND
The joint communique following Foreign Minister
Scheel's three-day visit to Warsaw recorded Bonn's
willingness to promote low-interest private credits
to Poland. For their part, the Poles promised to
facilitate the repatriation of ethnic Germans from
Poland.
While Scheel was in Warsaw, the West German am-
bassador told US Embassy officers that the Poles had
offered to repatriate about 50,000 people, while
Bonn was pushing for about 200,000. As for the cred-
its, Poland was reportedly seeking "significantly
higher" amounts than the West Germans were prepared
to offer.
The vagueness of the communique indicates that
the two sides were not able to reach full agreement
on either of these key issues, and this presumably
is why the Polish Foreign Minister will soon make
another "working visit" to Bonn. He was there only
last month. An announcement that Polish party chief
Gierek will visit West Germany early next year shows,
however, that the two countries expect to be able to
make satisfactory progress toward resolving the prob-
lems that remain.
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NOTE
Cambodia: A new 29-member cabinet was announced
in Phnom Penh yesterday. In Tam remains as premier,
and most of the members are holdovers. The principal
change is the creation of three vice premiers and a
minister of state, each with responsiblity for co-
ordinating the activities of related ministries. In
Tam was given the portfolios for Interior and Religion
that he has long wanted, apparently in compensation
for accepting two supporters of Lon Nol and one of
Sink Matak as vice premiers.
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